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Thursday, October 27, 2016

Now Turkey could become a strategic ally of Russia

Failed military coup attempt in Turkey for a long time destabilizie the situation in this extremely important country for Russia. It is clear that we are interested in good neighborly relations with the Turkish Republic, but what they will be now, after the rebellion and the expected strengthening of the authority of Erdogan?

Turkey is important for Russia – it is an axiom. Our relationship is already five hundred years, and for several centuries as we have become neighbors with all the ensuing wars, cooperation, quarrels, and trade.

“Russia needs and benefits from the Turkey, like the Turks themselves”

Soviet Russia played a crucial role in creating the modern Turkish state – gathering the fragments of the Russian Empire, the Bolsheviks helped Ataturk to keep at least the main territory of residence of Turks, Asia Minor, and which after the death of the Ottoman Empire, the Western countries were ready to divide into several States. But friendly relations are not preserved for a long time, Europe was a new war, and although Turkey was not an enemy of Russia, and a good neighbor after she left. The USSR emerged from the war victorious and a global superpower and Stalin tried to use the new status in the South, to protect the Soviet Union and from that flank.

In 1945, negotiations with the allies, and later the Turks was announced in the Soviet Union if Turkey wants to conclude a new Treaty of friendship with Moscow (and the former Soviet Union revoked as not meeting the new situation), Ankara should go to the return of the territories that it has received from Armenia and Georgia in 1921, and to amend the Montreux Convention on the Straits, allowing the USSR to have military base in the Dardanelles. These requirements were not excessive – if you understand that the cost for them would be a strategic Alliance between the two countries. Stalin and said: want a Union – let’s fix the border, do not want – leave as is.

But the position of Western countries in the Turkish elite was much more serious than in the Soviet Union – besides Churchill strongly intimidated Ankara Soviet divisions in Bulgaria, which can hit Turkey. It was funny – the USSR in the Balkans, there were much fewer troops than the Turkey, and to fight Stalin was not going. He wanted to play on the contradictions within the Turkish elite – still the memory of Russian-Turkish cooperation was strong, like a memory that wanted to make Turkey the British and French – and to tickle the nerves of the Anglo-Saxons. Actually, the Soviet Union then it was not possible in a peaceful way to print the Black sea – the question of the Straits would not solve Turkey, and the United States and great Britain, which was strongly opposed to let the Soviet fleet in the Mediterranean space.

How the West was pushing Russia and Turkey: history of the Russo-Turkish war the end, the fight for Turkey, we then lost – Ankara went under the Atlantic umbrella. In 1952 Turkey joined NATO, and although a year later the Soviet Union declared about the absence of Soviet Armenia and Georgia territorial claims to Turkey, restored relationships hard. Economic ties and political contacts, experienced a rise in the 60-70-ies – but even then, periodic crises, like Cyprus in 1974, darkened the two-way communication.

Military coups, nothing has changed in the contacts between the two countries – although the tip of the army was distinguished by the strong Pro-Western orientation, the Turkish generals still could not be called American puppets. Yes, in the global confrontation of the Eastern and Western blocks Turkey was in the midst of our enemies, but the economic relations developed rather successfully. It was a secular, Kemalist Turkey is incorporated into the Western economy, military structure and force field. This proevrapiskaya – convenient for West sample digestion “advanced culture,” “backward civilization”.

But she was asleep, or rather, was crushed by another Turkey – Islamic, Ottoman, traditionalist. She awoke, rose–, and 90-ies declared themselves openly. If the army took power in order to eliminate a too liberal government, but now it was beginning to confront an Islamist, a deep Turkey – and army lost.

If in 1997, the army with the help of only one ultimatum has been able to remove from power of Erdogan’s predecessor, but now it failed to change the government even by means of a military coup. Yes, the coup was strange and more like a spontaneous, ill-prepared gesture of despair fearing the exposure of the conspirators – but still the army has lost the confidence of the people. It is due which could easily adjust the direction of the country. Now we are dealing with another Turkey, and it is therefore important to understand where it goes and what is in our best interest.

For a start, Russia needs a Turkey, like the Turks themselves. We do not export democracy, traditionalism, we are not against, neither political Islam nor the secular state. Which system will choose the Turks themselves, it will be the most sustainable form of their state. And such a state will be able to build good strategic relations with its neighbors, including Russia. But if the Turks split between supporters of the secular state and Islamists for wanting to “integrate into Europe”, and traditionalists, who to bet on Russia?

No one – or rather, those who, according to our external evaluation, more suited to Turkish interests, the system, which will be the most sustainable and acceptable to Turkish society. If Erdogan has the support of half of the Turkish society, and his opponents were divided between and more contradictions than common means, today, the Turkish President represents the choice of the neighboring nation. And Russia will work with it – not turning a blind eye to all existing we have disagreements on certain political issues.

Moreover, for the same Syria, our contradictions, although formally strong, in reality are tactical, not strategic – and Moscow, and Ankara need a single peaceful Syria in which there is a balance between the various ethnic and religious groups. But the overall strategic goals of Russia and Turkey abound.

Erdogan has been in power for 13 years – and over the years relations between our countries have steadily grown. The main reason is not personal sympathy of Erdogan to Russia – not, and the fact that he is trying to build an independent Turkey. Which is extremely beneficial close relationship with the most important Northern neighbour, Russia.

Yes, Erdogan and the Turkish elite was and still is a lot of ambition – including the sometimes pan-Turkic, neoottomanism. However, with all due respect to the Turks, they will not succeed again become the center of attraction in the greater Middle East – the Caliphate passed to collect the Turkic peoples (which naturally would have led to enmity with Russia into a single project fail. But 80 million Turkey is a great future and great opportunities – as one of the key countries of the region as a bridge between Europe and Asia.

Turkey, like Russia, needs “only” to become herself, ceasing to be under-Europe and non-Asia – the Turks have their own, developed in the Ottoman period, civilization identity, there is your pivot point and strengths. Islamization of Turkey, which is so frightening as a Europeanized part of the Turks and its neighbors (including Russia), poses no threat, on the contrary, is a vivid expression of the process of finding the Turks themselves.

Hard the secular regime established by Kemal Ataturk, oppressed by Islam and in this sense was anti-national, that is based on ignoring the feelings of the big, or rather even a larger part of the population. His transformation is carried out by Erdogan, is perfectly natural: the Islamization is not fiction after reading of foreign textbooks “reformers” and return people to the positions that have been declared “no-religion”. Russia is not the threat of Islamic Turkey – simply because any other will be unstable.

Of course, Russia does not need to Islamic revival in Turkey has led to the fact that this country has become a base for those “Islamists” that Anglo-Saxon players are trying to use to undermine our North Caucasus and Central Asia – but is independent from external centers of Ankara, they just don’t need.

Games of the West in “Islamism”, attempts to use the Islamic factor to create problems geopolitical adversaries like Russia and China or the authorities of Muslim States has long been clear to all sane rulers of Islamic countries, including Erdogan. Between Islamists and “Islamic terrorists” (part of which is in the service of MI-6) there is a huge difference – and Erdogan is not going to turn Turkey into a puppet of external forces.

Russia does not want a fragmented and a weak Turkey – why it is so frivolous talk about support for the Kurdish guerrillas, or bets on the overthrow of Erdogan. Erdogan, of course, can lose power – if you go too far with the purges in the army and a crackdown as such, or if bogged down in any foreign adventure such as the war with the Kurds in Syria or Iraq. But at least now he is in a rush, his political instinct should tell him where to stop increasing its power.

Yes, now he had the opportunity to carry out the constitutional reforms which he has long been broken – it will strengthen the powers of the President, the army will clean and press the opposition. But Erdogan is no need to become a tyrant – at him and so there is great support among the people, and considerable support among the elite. Similarly, he there is now even a special opportunities for outside adventures – reconciliation with Russia allows you to search for options for a peaceful settlement in Syria with the view of the Turkish interest in minimizing the Kurdish factor.

Perfect for Russia, Turkey is a country which is not in NATO, and the Eurasian Union. Or at least, is a reliable partner and a strategic ally of Russia. And it’s not just empty hope, but a very possible future scenario, which can and should work both in Moscow and in Ankara. Not close future, but not this far away. In the next 10 years, the geopolitical situation on the big Board will change dramatically – and such important centres of power such as Turkey will be forced to finally find his own place in the big game.

They must make a historic choice of direction in the transformed world, to choose allies and enemies to choose between saving their own civilization and turning into an object for manipulation of the globalization strategists. If Turkey wants to strengthen and maintain its self-sufficiency, the support of Russia in that it provided.

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