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Wednesday, March 21, 2018

The revolts in Turkey and Armenia: the weakness of strong modes

The failed, but very bloody military coup in Turkey led to doubt that we live in the XXI century. It’s like the old and sometimes very inhumane times of the sublime Porte: who is brave and strong — and the power. And Woe to the opposition. However, these national characteristics are not so exclusive. By the same law of the political jungle still lives the lion’s share of humanity. Including, alas, our power.

photo: AP

But more recently, at the turn of the century, it seemed that force is coming to power delivered to the Museum. No, of coups, of course, occasionally happened, but less and farther from the center of civilizational ecumene. However, in the beginning of the second decade of the third Millennium it became clear that the silence meant not the end of the era of revolutions, and the calm before the storm. Her first impulses were recorded in Tunisia: riots that started in this country on 17 December 2010, began the process now known as the “Arab spring”. Revolutionary fire is not extinct to this day, covered almost all the countries of the Arab world. In four of them — Tunisia, Libya, Egypt and Yemen — it has led to a change of government.

Some thought that the epidemic will come from already-established range. However, the Ukrainian “Maidan” revolution has shown that the cause of the disease is not in the Arab mentality. But events this summer have added arguments in favor of the fact that we are dealing with a global phenomenon. First, an armed rebellion in Kazakhstan, then the Turkish revolt of the “Decembrists”. And finally, the most recent message, from Armenia: armed men seized a police building in Yerevan, hold hostages, demanding the release of arrested earlier opposition leader Zhirayr Sefilyan. At the same time associates Sefilyan declared intention to change the situation in Armenia through armed insurrection.

Someone sees in a long chain of revolutions and rebellions long arm of the CIA, someone brings to the fore economic conditions. But, as you can see, the virus of destabilization affects the different States: the poor and quite wealthy, secular and clerical, allied and hostile to the West and Russia. However, a pattern can be detected, that is, to the naked eye: neither one of the victims is not a classical democracy with balanced political system, representing the entire spectrum of public sentiment. The degree of their authoritarianism, however, is very different. The Erdogan regime, for example, is very different from the creations Gaddafi or Assad (at least until recently). But one can hardly argue with the fact that in recent years, the political space and civil liberties in the Republic has shrunk like shagreen leather.

There is a very good and very precise definition of democracy: it is a political system where the opposition is able to come to power peacefully. Unfortunately, our country is among the States that have not yet passed this test. The last time the opposition took power into their own hands a quarter-century ago, and quite peaceful those events can not be named. Many, of course, good and true. But it is not a question of taste, and the competitiveness of the country, the main prerequisite for which is, of course, political stability. Yes, for a brief historic periods of strict regimes often seem more stable and sometimes even more successful than the “rotten democracy”. However, winning seems to be the spurt sooner or later ends with the collapse of the state and gathering in the distance.

Coup in Turkey. Chronicle of events

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