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Saturday, December 10, 2016

Why failed coup in Turkey


In Turkey there was a coup attempt – in the fact that there’s absolutely nothing strange or even unusual. Military coups is an old and venerable – can’t say good – Turkish political tradition. But the fact that the military coup was unsuccessful – it is truly amazing. This is an event that “ breaks the mold” and reinforces fundamental change in the development trajectory of Turkey and its political system.


photo: AP

For many years after the death of the founder of the modern Turkish state, the country’s first President Mustafa Kemal Ataturk in 1938, Turkey was governed approximately according to the following scheme. In calm political times, the role of the Turkish state of the ship were the civilian leaders – the Prime Minister and the President. But if civilians start the ship of state in stormy waters or altogether on the reefs, from behind the scenes came out real leaders of the country – the military.

Depending on the situation, the generals or gently suspended civilian “stayros” of the wheel or to complete the program gave them atata. But the official power in any case passed into their hands. For example, in 1960, when the military overthrew the government of democratically elected Prime Minister Adnan Menderes. A year earlier the Prime Minister miraculously survived, when in heavy fog his plane fell, it reached a few kilometers to the runway in London.

Nine members of the entourage of the Prime Minister and five crew members were killed. But the Adnan Menderes came out of the flaming wreckage of the airliner virtually intact. However, during the military coup again, “to cheat fate”, he failed. Through more than a year after the overthrow of the former Prime Minister was hanged – despite requests for his pardon from U.S. President John Kennedy and Queen Elizabeth II.

After such a “ loud launch” the military coups in Turkey took place quite regularly: in 1971, in 1980, in 1997. It is important to note that neither the military nor a significant part of Turkish society are not considered coups, illegal. On the contrary, they were perceived as a manifestation of civic and political prowess, as the performance of the army of his sacred duty to defend the ideals of Ataturk and the secular foundations of the Turkish state.

One of the main ideologists and executors of the coup d’état of 1997, General Cevik bir described a similar situation: “ In Turkey we have a marriage between Islam and democracy. Born in this marriage child – secularism ( the principle, according to which the government should exist separately from religion -MK). From time to time, this child is ill. The Turkish armed forces is the doctor who saves the child. Depending on the severity of the disease, we use a medication that guarantees vyzdorovlenie sick.”

To the special role of the “ doctor’s Army” all in the political circles of Turkey are accustomed to. Sometimes in a military coup generals didn’t even have a particularly saber-rattling. For example, it was in 1997, the year when the military overthrew the political teachers of Erdogan, Prime Minister Necmettin Erbakan. The whole coup was to present the head of government of a special Memorandum, saying, excuse me, Mr. Premier, but you broke the secular foundations of the state. So, please come out!

Prime Minister Erbakan “ hint” military figured out meekly followed. Held in those years the post of mayor of Istanbul, current Turkish leader Erdogan, too, has suffered at the hands of the military. During the revolution he was, however, not touched. But in December 1997 the mayor had the temerity to quote on the official event poem religioznogo of contents, which were these lines: “ the Mosques are our barracks, their domes our helmets, the minarets are our bayonets. Our soldiers are full of faith!”

For this, Erdogan was removed from office the mayor and given a ten-month prison sentence of which he served four. Don’t know whether this episode so much effect on the future leader of Turkey. Or maybe he could not forgive the military coup of 1980 after which it, according to the BBC, fired for refusing to shave off his mustache. On the exact causality can only tell Erdogan himself. And we can only say: being in 2003 after the triumphant victory of his party in the parliamentary elections, the Prime Minister of Turkey, Erdogan has been consistently dismantle the “ special role” of the military in the political life of the country.

On the superstructure was hit by a wave of purges. Parallel to this, Erdogan strengthened role of the religious factor in the public system. For “Covenant keepers of Ataturk” all this was, of course, like a knife in the throat. But the high popularity of Erdogan in the country and his ability to repeatedly win the elections did not allow army to enter in her familiar role of “ doctor”.

Finally, in July 2016 disaffected from the military environment made her “knight’s move”. Made – and lost. That means development event for Turkey’s future? I think it can lead to the strengthening and weakening Erdogan. Turkish President won again – and a very formidable opponent. Army were the most respected force in the Turkish society. Now its reputation as “ the leading and guiding force” were only memories. Erdogan no longer bothers to exercise their Napoleonic plans of the final transformation of Turkey into a presidential Republic, and himself – in an authoritarian, sole ruler of the country.

Erdogan will now be able to decide for himself: that of the political heritage of atatürk can be left as the supporting structures of the Turkish state system, and that – “ throw in the dustbin of history”. Erdogan is possible to implement a “ reset” of the Turkish Republic, to saturate the public system with new content, significantly reducing the scope of secularism.

Erdogan is now an absolute carte Blanche for violence against their enemies. The savagery that took place during the coup-fights in Parliament, helicopter attacks on civilian and government facilities, massive bloodshed – give the President a reason to be very uncharitable. And Erdogan showed that he has the support of the population.

But at the same time the events of a hot July night is a devastating blow to the reputation of Turkey as a country, and the reputation of Erdogan as its leader. Erdogan was a very successful mayor of Istanbul, mayor, made the city more clean, modern and successful. Everything about him is a very long time to work and as the head of state. But this “ long time seems to have ended.

Even before the coup d’état Turkey has been in deep crisis. Erdogan frankly confused with all quarreled and came to a standstill. Dual line against the banned in Russia grouping “ Islamic state” – on the one hand, the struggle, on the other hand, the close collaboration led to a series of terrible terrorist acts inside Turkey itself. Attempt by force to solve the “ problem kutsuu” provoked the outbreak of actual civil war in some regions of the country. The desire of the Turkish President to contribute to the overthrow of the Assad regime in neighboring Syria has resulted in the import of the war across the Syrian border into its territory.

Erdogan recently made peace with Russia is not a good life. Erdogan made peace with Moscow, and hinted at its willingness to reconsider its attitude towards Syria because he frantically sought a way out of the impasse. Now the output has become even more “disguised”. In terms of political image of Turkey from the “ almost Europe” has become something close to Africa. But Turkish policy has become quite unpredictable. And it is very bad for Turkey, and for all its neighbors, including Russia.

Coup in Turkey. Chronicle of events

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