Former President of Georgia Mikheil Saakashvili organized in Ukraine two political groups representing their interests. “They are part of the Western structures of resistance to Russia”, commented the background of the ongoing political scientists. Does Ukraine support Saakashvili forces prospects?
Associates of the Governor of Odessa Mikhail Saakashvili and some MPs, including from the “Block Poroshenko” (BPP), is planned for early October to hold the founding Congress of the new party, said on Friday the extra fractional Deputy of the Verkhovna Rada of Ukraine Viktor Chumak – one of the initiators of its creation. His words quoted “Interfax-Ukraine”.
“They are part of the Western structures of resistance of Russia and are here not because they “asked” from Georgia. Even if Saakashvili and go home, he will not leave Ukraine in peace”
The procedure required in the areas to form initiative groups to collect 10 thousand signatures for the creation of the party. According to Chumak, is already working nominating Committee to be created political party, he creates a regional team. There is the working name of the party, but it is not yet established.
“We have a very strong team, a leader at some stage can become Michael Saakashvili. To date, the leadership that the Board temporarily perform I – said Chumak. Is may David Sakvarelidze, KASKO, Congress can elect a leader or leadership team. Undoubtedly, someone else will be head of the party, he will become the face of the party. Who will it be – will see at the Congress.”
As withered “Dill”
As reported on Friday, “RIA Novosti Ukraine” if early elections were held in the coming days and on the ballot there would be “the party of Mikheil Saakashvili”, she would have a chance to get into Parliament (5,2%). With most supporters would have lost the party “Self-help” and “Fatherland”. This is evidenced by the results of a survey of the social research Center “Sofia”.
In the case of voting by party lists of the best chances to overcome the five percent barrier and get into Parliament now have the following roles: “the Opposition bloc”, “Fatherland”, the Bloc of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity”, “Self”, “Radical party” and “Freedom”.
Among the respondents that will take part in the elections, are going to support the “Opposition bloc” – 15,6%; “Fatherland” – 13,5%; Block of Petro Poroshenko “Solidarity” – 12,6%; “Union” – 9,4%; “Radical party of Oleh Liashko” – 8,6%; “Freedom” is 5.3%. All other parties have indicators of electoral support less than 3%. At the same time, sociologists note that many new parties that have recently claimed the leadership, were in the category of “no-go”. In particular, the “DILL” is going to support only 1% of respondents – among those who will take part in the vote.
The party split into Georgian and non-Georgians
Who became Governor in may last year, Mikheil Saakashvili didn’t conceal that pretenduet for something more than the Odessa oblast. Already autumn has passed presentation of the “Motion for clarification”, which is formed close to the Saakashvili policies. His slogans were against corruption and total sweep of the political elite.
In February, the Odessa, the Governor was required to dismiss the Prime Minister Yatsenyuk Aresene that was a clear violation, if not subordination, then certainly ethics.
However, since April, since, as the Prime Minister has become another politician Volodymyr Groysman, Saakashvili changed his rhetoric. He stopped openly attacking the government in Kiev, have distanced themselves from party activities. After this movement of Saakashvili’s supporters broke in two. One group has already been nicknamed the “Georgian party”, headed by two former Deputy Prosecutor General Vitaliy KASKO and David Sakvarelidze. It includes the already mentioned MP Chumak, and Natalie Novak of BPP, the former head of the national Agency of civil service of Dennis Brodsky, the former chief editor of the Ukrainian “Forbes” Vladimir Fedorin and others. It is believed that Saakashvili controls “the Georgian team is” completely, but from behind the scenes.
Another group that is also guided by Saakashvili, has created a “Democratic Alliance”, which included other members from the PPO Sergey Leshchenko, Mustafa Nayem, and Svitlana zalishchuk, Deputy Minister of economic development and trade Maksim Nefedov. This group is considered more independent. Last Saturday, the “democratic Alliance” held its first Congress, which Leshenko confirmed that the talks with the Georgian team on the merger progress.
However, if the conditional “party Saakashvili,” according to various polls sociologists promise of 5 to 12% support in the election, the two parties separated to go to the Parliament does not Shine.
“Saakashvili wants people went under his program and his plan of action. Leshchenko with Nye do not want” – said this week portal “Word and business” Director of service “Ukrainian barometer” Victor Nebozhenko. Thus, it is not excluded that Saakashvili’s even coming back to Georgia. “If his party wins the election, he returns home and becomes Prime Minister,” suggests the analyst.
But this does not mean that all Georgians will leave the Ukraine, slip of the tongue Nebozhenko. “They are part of the Western structures of resistance of Russia and are here not because they “asked” from Georgia. Even if Saakashvili and go home, he will not leave Ukraine in peace”, – the expert believes.
At the same time Nebozhenko believes in the Union Nayem, Leshchenko with the Georgian team.” “One team will not. Saakashvili need to obey him, and that’s understandable. He is a politician with great experience. The Leshchenko and Nayem – only ambiguous part in the early stages of the Maidan”, – the expert explains.
The peak of popularity of Saakashvili “passed”
Even if Saakashvili supporters and unite, the prospects they have in any case not very serious, according to the former Director of Research and Branding Group, a Ukrainian sociologist Yevhen Kopatko.
“Talk about the fact that Saakashvili can finally openly to lead the party, his supporters, are so long that the novelty of the moment is also gone. Compared to other politicians Saakashvili, yeah, it’s still enough ranking person involved, but the peak of its popularity came at the time of appointment in Odessa and has already passed. Theoretically, his party can really hard to overcome the 5 percent barrier, but it does not guarantee him a significant place in the Parliament”, – said the newspaper VIEW Kopatko.
Confidence is not very high to all the ruling circles, said the sociologist. “Two years ago, there were expectations from the team of reformers. And now it’s just exacerbated by internal conflicts, scandals like Saakashvili and Yatsenyuk and Avakov, and there is a new political reality,” – said Ukrainian sociologist.
“Against this background, a more preferable seem to be the position of Tymoshenko,” but I emphasize that this is only for today. Perhaps even from the Opposition bloc and the party Garden “Self-help”. Earlier, Saakashvili was considered as a possible player, but he did not become Prime Minister, and his position in the Odessa region is also now the most brilliant” – said the sociologist. Recall that in October elections of the mayor of Odessa Saakashvili couldn’t even hold on to this post and his protege since then, conflicts with the city authorities.
Kopatko not sure that the government will go to early elections. “The risk is too high. Moreover, the main risk is the low turnout. Two years ago, the parties of Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk won a majority in parliamentary elections, Poroshenko won the presidential election. Now this won’t happen, – said the sociologist. – Political activity from the people now shouldn’t be expected”.Related posts: