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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Trump at the Republican national Convention can expect surprises

July 18 in Cleveland, Ohio, will open the Congress of the Republican party, which theoretically must stamp the nomination of Donald trump as a candidate for President of the country. But in practice it may not be as simple as can be, everything will be all wrong.

photo: en.wikipedia.org

“MK” has repeatedly written about the fact that for a politically correct party establishment trump is a bone in the throat, which to the extreme is hard to swallow. Direct insults and discriminatory remarks outrageous billionaire against women, Muslims, Mexicans, objectionable journalists and politicians forced the party bosses and apparatchiks to seek release from trump. But the easy way, find they cannot: trump has large enough electorate, angry at the establishment, which “the country is not there”; these “angry Americans” can expect anything, if their candidate with hardware intrigues thrown overboard. To do this the machine can, but lately, officials of the Republican party say anything like that they are not planning and will not happen. In June, the press Secretary of the National Committee of the Republican party, Sean Spicer called the speculations on the theme of “inventions of the media and stuff Twitter”.

Trump regularly nibbles with Republican politicians. For example, the other day during a meeting behind closed doors with a group of Republican senators he grappled with Jeff Playcom, which is in the U.S. Senate from Arizona. The Senator criticized trump over religious and racial intolerance, and in response he promised to do so at the November election of senators swept – not re-elected for another term. This will be difficult, retorted the Senator, because this year he’s not running again. Unlike congressmen, who are all without exception are re-elected every two years, senators are elected for six-year terms and are elected every two years only a third of the Senate – this year, not the third, which, according to its mandated deadline, is Flake. Trump, a militant ignoramus, could not know…

But the party leadership does not want to openly eliminate tramp – if this is done, it is by means of backstage intrigue. And even the last trompowsky scandal prompted the top Republican to declare Trump open war – although any other candidate instantly “uryli” would place for the manifestation of anti-Semitism. Tarnowskie propagandists put Hillary Clinton on the background of clouds hundred-dollar bills and stars of David with the text: “the Most corrupt candidate in the history of America.” Senior Republicans trump brand, dissociate ourselves from it, but at the same time and from questions about whether they are ready – and how – to derail the “impure” candidate.

However, something antitarnish definitely brewed in Republican boiler. The American media constantly talking about the possibility of “running horse”, which can make procedural Committee on the eve of the Republican national Convention (the Convention will be held from 18 to 21 July). Most of the 112 members of this influential Committee may vote to allow the delegates to vote for anyone, and not necessarily for the candidate who won their state. However, the decision of procedural Committee would be subject to the approval of the plenary part of the Congress.

Misleading and about parallel efforts in the same direction. A number of influential Republicans – delegates working to “stop trump” regardless of whether the procedural Committee “fateful decision”. The representative of the group of independent delegates Dane waters said that the Congress is likely to be a sufficient number of votes against and abstentions in the first round of voting on the nomination, in order to push the Congress to the subsequent antithrombosis action. In other words, if in the first round of trump does not receive at least votes from 1237 2472, a second round of voting is inevitable, and there is each delegate can vote without regard to party your state. According to waters, many States are preparing exactly for such a scenario: trump’s “ride” in the first round, then will be put forward alternative candidates, and go vote as long as someone will not gain the coveted number of delegate votes.

Yahoo News cites the opinion of former Chairman of the Republican organization in the state of Iowa AJ of Spyker, which said: the supporters of trump will try to put to vote a resolution binding the delegates to vote strictly in accordance with the results of the elections in their state, but such a resolution does not receive the majority of votes even in a procedural Committee, not to mention the Congress. A test survey “on vskidku” conducted among the delegates revealed that the majority – for a free vote not tied to the outcome of the primaries. Randy Evans, a member of the National Committee of the Republican party of Georgia, has calculated that a loyal Trump delegates 890 people against him – 680, and 900 – undecided (information of the newspaper the Wall Street Journal).

Who, if not trump? Yes, even the horse’s coat, not trump, I believe the Republican policies. With trump they are afraid to lose the White house – despite the unpopularity of Hillary Clinton and investigation of its violations. On the website http://www.electionprojection.com long list of public opinion polls conducted from early June to early July, and only in one national poll trump 2% ahead of Clinton (2% is within statistical error). This survey was conducted by the service Rasmussen Reports, which is known for its proresults bias.

However, there is still a fresh survey by the sociological service Quinnipiac (credible) that shows a two-percent margin of trump in Florida and Pennsylvania and a draw in Ohio, and these three States – they often decide the outcome of elections.

…Recently The New York Times printed an article that on the basis of the conversation with trump concludes that he may give up the presidency if he wins the election. Sounds unlikely, but if it suddenly happens, to decide the fate of the presidency are 538 members of the electoral College. And if there is no candidate receives a majority, then, according to the Constitution, the House of representatives would choose the President from the top three candidates. Such is the American affair.

Ilya PARANICAS, new York.

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