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Sunday, March 18, 2018

Third problem of the Russian economy

Two troubles — fools and roads — remember everything. But the Russian economy is not the first dozen years asks the same questions: how to diversify, how will the necessary investments, change in economic policy? Shifts, alas, a bit. And those that are, are not encouraging. The main progress, in fact, is this: among those who are trying to questions to answer, undecided warring camps of politicians and experts. Further, much turns on the principle of “friend or foe”. Labels, deliberate, nearly universal politicization is another of our problem is derived, however, from those fools. This is not news.

And around the new rife. The economy is showing defiance. Some controllers it, with their active help, chased the hunger and greed of father Feodor from “12 chairs” on the bare top. Though not the Caucasus mountains, and negative interest rates. In the West perfectly understand that the ultra-loose monetary policy caused a crisis of the debt bubble of 2008, but since then the activities of the controllers nothing has changed fundamentally. Then, new bubbles are inflated. Instead of Lehman Brothers can collapse something else. The candidates fault, no it’s not just individual banks or companies, but entire States or even alliances of States.

Many domestic applicants, regulators, the economic crisis brought to the aggravation of bouts of phantom pain in the arm of the state planning Committee, state logistics Committee and the state Bank.

The fact that the regulators neither there nor here was not adequate tools for a changed economy.

A new quality in the way of interaction as with those who are all holding something tries to change it with those for whom she exists. It’s not about the owners of the banks and companies, and the consumers of those goods and services.

We live in the age of information technology. They are pervasive. Information is not just a product or service, it’s our way of existence. The way of organizing the exchange of information becomes what is changing our lives, and companies that hold key positions in the handling of information, the most popular and expensive.

New challenges do not refer to any one economy. First failed Grexit, Brexit then shocked many raise the question of how to ensure effective political decisions in modern conditions.

Anyone who is the hostage: the politician the voters, which call for a plebiscite, or the voters, manipulated, politicians?

Question can rotate in different ways. The essence is the same: democracy always has complaints. Few politicians will find the strength to repeat the words of Churchill, uttered when the post-war elections in Britain removed him — one of the recognized winners of the government. “Only a great nation could vote,” here’s a review of Churchill.

Today, as it happened many times in history, a growing number of dissatisfied “inefficiency” of democracy. In our country, such discontent has a traditional background. The paradox is that we are approaching the Leninist thesis that it is time for us to become “bourgeois democracy.” We “outgrew”. The Communist party ultimately under the Constitution of the Soviet Union was the leading and guiding force. Its monopoly and the Soviet Union led to the collapse.

What happens now? Herman Gref, and with it Elvira Nabiullina, bright and, perhaps, the most effective top-managers of our economy, even in quite prosperous 2012 at the St. Petersburg international economic forum has found each other in a technocratic critique of ineffective democracy. Gref then gave the formula: “Democracy is verbal garbage of the twentieth century.”

Instead democracy will be the guiding and directing? Gref, as you know, with the passion of a neophyte believes in digital technology. Should they replace “ineffective” democracy?

I hope not. The lessons of history, digital technology cannot substitute. And they should be: democracy is better than bureaucracy, no matter how enlightened that considered themselves either.

The passage about democracy — no deviation on any subject. In the economy less than in politics, but since we are talking about the search for effective responses to economic challenges, and must meet policy, the question of democracy are also relevant as digital technologies.

You can dream about the state as a single MEGASYSTEM (single Corporation) and build digital models with complex and claims to the effectiveness of the systems of backward and forward linkages. But the old question: who makes the decisions?

It is possible with the latest technologies to build the most modern, state planning Commission. But then it turns out that the former Soviet experience could not stand the test of time, because supposedly ahead of it’s time. But now on the basis of the most modern technologies it is possible to play and succeed.

Not convinced. The new technology grow from a different root. Yes, of course, Silicon valley would not exist if not for the orders of the Pentagon. But the essence of the digital revolution — the answers to the queries of the average consumer, enabling each of us in the new information world.

Information technology, from the point of view of the consumer of their services is not a replacement, and the additional pillar of democracy. Might sound kind of ridiculous, especially when you realize that digital technology has put all of us under the hood of Big brother. But life, as was once said, is dialectical. Universal control is a reality, as access to the information that we have ever had. Roses without thorns do not exist.

Go back into the economy. The first stage of the new system of economic regulation is a policy for the elimination of economic and financial illiteracy.

Here everything is clear. Message: the economy — not for the state budget for the state. It is for citizens.

Second level support (administrative, tax, Advisory) any lawful economic initiatives of citizens. From online work for several employers prior to the removal of unnecessary restrictions on “illegal entrepreneurship” and, of course, support for small and medium businesses, particularly start-UPS.

The state should take care of its very tarnished reputation. Suffice it to mention the tragic Saga of funded pensions. Nothing like this level of dispossession of citizens of the state has no right to prevent.

The third stage. Constant to tedium dialogue of representatives of all authorities with the business, when it comes to the preparation of decisions in the sphere of economic policy. Laws and other regulatory, including industry acts are not the orders of the authorities business, and mutual obligations. So they need to line up and exactly controlled.

Fourth tier. Of course, the authorities responsible for the stability of business conditions. Inflation, exchange rate, tax rate in all of Russia’s dependence on the external environment is the responsibility of the government and the Central Bank.

The fifth tier. Dialogue of business and authorities may not be restricted to current issues. Need to work together, not by bureaucratic initiative to identify areas of future investment storm. Need not report how much each Minister on paper, “breakthrough areas”, and the concentration of real investment resources. For example, the development of digital technologies and high-speed transport. The first is to hope to keep up with the new revolution; the second is dictated by the size of our country, needs for regional development and the possibility of turning Russia into a great transport power.

At all levels there is space and digital technologies, and democratic institutions.

The future of their Union.

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