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Tuesday, February 20, 2018

Stuffing of “offensive DNR” caused by the Kiev battle for influence in the army

Announced by the head of the NSDC of Ukraine offensive in Mariupol from the NPT is contrary to military logic, but is easily explained by the logic of the political. It is believed that in the event of a real threat to this city of USA will finally give Ukraine a lethal weapon. In addition, in Kiev is clearly aggravated the struggle for influence on the army.

According to the statement of the Secretary of the national security Council and defence of Ukraine (NSDC) Oleksandr Turchynov, the forces of the DPR in the near future going to attack Mariupol, which is actively supplied with arms, ammunition and fuel. Turchynov also noted the growing number of attacks in the Donbass, and said that in the “zone ATO” significantly increased the activity of the use of professionally trained sabotage and reconnaissance groups and snipers. All these points were raised during the meeting with the military leadership in the conflict zone and verifying the operational readiness of the AFU in the area of Mariupol, which the Secretary of the NSDC held in the light of “the preparation of the offensive of the DPR”. In fact, the trip Turchynov to Donbas caused by a series of local tactical defeats IEDs in the last month.

“The message of the Ukrainian sources at some point acquired almost the character of panic, such as return fire from the BCH they just did not expect “

It all started with an attempt to capture the neutral zone and penetrate the defenses of the BCH under debaltseve, but after 10 hours of fighting, the Ukrainian troops, suffering heavy losses, retreated to their former positions. Then followed a series of artillery and sniper duels. A few days ago APU in small groups again tried to move in the same direction – in the direction of the village Logvinova, which at the time slammed the debaltsevsky boiler. This attempt almost ended in a new disaster, as the company commander of the group almost got completely surrounded by now familiar scenario. As you know, the rake is the main element of the training obstacle course in the preparation of fighters of VSU, which they still have not learned to crawl.

A somewhat different situation exists near the village of Troitskaya, where the BCH retaliatory artillery fire destroyed one of the strongholds of the Ukrainian military, with three confirmed dead. Messages Ukrainian sources at some point acquired almost the character of panic, such as return fire from the BCH they did not expect and nothing to oppose him but could not. In parallel, the public lament that “only American weapons can save Ukraine”. Specifically demanded supply of counter-battery radars and fire control systems, without which “highly qualified” and “best in Europe” army (according to Poroshenko) to survive.

However, Turchynov chose to visit Mariupol, around which nothing important happens, except for periodic raids and naval units of the former national guard “demilitarizovana” Shirokino (in some cases this occurs with the filing or at least at the inactivity of the Supervisory OSCE missions). Turchinov like in Mariupol: almost always (with rare exceptions) of an inspection in the Donbass included, this cosy and well-fortified city. His appearance in Mariupol – a guarantee that the place is safe and the “big man” is not threatened.

Turchinov did not give specific dates of the coming “offensive VSN”. It’s not his profile. Usually “intelligence” “clarifies” the current speaker of the Verkhovna Rada Andrew Parubiy. Last year, three times he was called or the exact date of the offensive VSN”, or approximate, each time Recalling it for exploration, then the “direct information from the camp of the separatists.” For example, Parubiy promised to launch an offensive on Mariupol on 1 August 2015 and spring “planned” the attack on the separatist period “may 9″, and apologized to the journalists that there can’t be more specific because there are several dates in late April and early may” (apparently different from intelligence sources). And Parubiy is carefully considered, and continues to count the number of Russian troops in the Donbas and Russia’s own territory next to it. According to the speaker, at some point at the border were up to 50 thousand Russian troops, but directly in response to 40 thousand. The statement was very touching, because a few days before his long-suffering part of the program of mutual monitoring of the border area flew an American reconnaissance plane and had found nothing. Not search “Russian thousand” and the OSCE mission.

However, Parubiy is, you can say, “he and help is.” Interest in Mariupol pastor Turchinov more substantive. It is believed that the BCH attempt to establish control over the city is a “red line”, after crossing which Washington promised to “specifically plead” for Kiev. It is noteworthy that the peak period of its onset in September 2014 the then the militia in Mariupol was not included, even though he could. The advance was stopped just for political reasons, and still this solution causes irritation in the part of the military and political elite of the DNR (especially the “retirees”). However, the Ukrainian side or in the panic attack (there’s almost a way of life and thinking), whether for propaganda purposes was to disseminate messages about “military equipment of separatists” almost in the center of the city. In reality, the VSN took only a commuter (and relatively suburban) villages of Sartana and Talakovka, which later voluntarily withdrew, in accordance with the Minsk agreements. On the seaside highway, the line of contact was closer to the city – Vinogradovo and Apple orchards around it, but these positions were left up to Shirokino, and also “because of politics”.

If earlier Ukrainian sources insisted that the BCH will bypass Mariupol on the steppe through the same Sartana (further – Volnovakha), and now Turchinov suggests almost a frontal attack on a fortified forward positions of the APU (after which, by the way, and the river Kalmius boost you have). Although “sagging” of the Eastern district 400-thousand city – this is not the purpose for which it is necessary to climb on the trenches and minefields.

Turchinov often operates in the Donbas on their own initiative and based on motives known only to himself. If you forget about conspiracy theories, revolving around the vertical responsibility of the pastor in front of the American centre of his Church, the impression that he’s trying to win over control over the armed forces. The General staff and the defense Ministry in Kiev, a long cherished new again Americans are vaccinated, the tactics of company groups, which replaced the indigestible battalion system. The army leadership with two hands clinging to the plan of “cutting strokes”, for which he created two super-strong army group and keeps them close to the front line, risking the offensive VSN to lose everything, hitting several large boilers. The complete lack of rolling stock reserve (net of training and staff parts in Kramatorsk) also indicates the obsession of thinking of the Ukrainian military on the idea of applying the “one true impact”. And the only major army group, which in this situation is forced to remain motionless, his face buried in trenches and bunkers, – just the same overfed garrison Mariupol.

A series of tactical defeats (and BCH are not even particularly annoying, except for the first hours at Logvinova, when nobody expected APU a kind of swagger) have at least someone in Kiev to give the impression that something goes wrong. Planned or not, organized or not. But born this idea could not in Kyiv, and overseas, and in this case her voice, too, will the Turchynov – not only by the head of the national security Council, but the call of the soul, since, in practice, the President Poroshenko too trust the leadership of the defense Ministry and General staff, and endured a lot of information and hardware of the fighting in order to save these people their positions, despite all the destruction.

“On the ground” turchinovsky of the national security Council armed forces not in control, but really wants the benefit of a giant army group has turned into a political tool, which holds the Supreme power in Kiev. Undermining the MOD a different kind of “predictions” and behind-the-scenes criticism of tactics and strategy, Turchinov gets his share of influence on the levers of power. But at the same time – the image of a military expert, which he is obviously lacking due to the origin, profession, manners and even appearance. What’s good and convincing acting in the mission house, on the front line sometimes looks ridiculous.

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