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Wednesday, December 7, 2016

Experts: Russia exchanged Moldova, Ukraine and Georgia on the breakaway Republic


In the night from Wednesday to Thursday it became known about the road map, which Moscow developed to restore trade relations with Chisinau. It is no secret that over the past few years, Russia has lost their if not allies, at least partners in Moldova, Georgia and Ukraine. Moscow, of course, is trying to return their location, but the methods she chooses, often only alienate her from the former Soviet republics.


photo: Mikhail Kovalev

Sources in the government of Russia reported that Moldova has refused to fulfill several points of the road map. We do not know what did not like, but on the basis of the disclosed information, we can assume that we are talking about two main points. First, Moscow demands that its trade Treaty with Chisinau was the Association of Moldova with the European Union, and it does not care how Moldovans will achieve this. Also, we are required to repay the debt for gas amounting to about 5 billion dollars, of which 4.5 billion was owed to the unrecognized Transnistrian Republic.

In Chisinau, of course, about anything that think not wish. Instead, on 10 July, the Minister of defence of Moldova Anatol Salaru has called on NATO to help his country to withdraw the Russian army from Transnistria. A few days before the Moldovan Parliament in first reading adopted a law banning the broadcasting of Russian news programs on television — on the grounds that they spread Kremlin propaganda.

But Moscow did not seem to notice as prevailing in the ruling elite of Moldova sentiment. Therefore, Deputy Prime Minister Dmitry Rogozin, who passed in Chisinau the “road map”, boldly stated on 8 July that if Moldova will take a step towards Romania — she just lose Transnistria.

Similar situation with Georgia, which after the 2008 war, diplomatic relations are not supported. Tbilisi still considers Abkhazia and South Ossetia part of its territory, while Russia recognized the sovereignty and keeps troops there. Also the Georgians can enter Russia only on visas, and this regime was to be simplified only in the beginning of 2016. Against this background Tbilisi to strengthen its defenses with the help of NATO, and the EU promises visa-free regime by October 2016.

The situation is even worse with Ukraine. Russian diplomatic mission in Ukraine are regularly attacked by local nationalists, and the Russian Ambassador Mikhail Zurabov is not even commented. A lot of effort Moscow’s efforts to maintain self-proclaimed DND and LNR, and this includes both humanitarian aid and about the so-called “North wind.”

“MK” has found out from experts whether Russia is able in the foreseeable future to return to these countries in its sphere of influence.

Alexander GUSEV, head of the Center for strategic development of CIS countries: “In the foreseeable future to make Georgia, Ukraine and Moldova in our friends will not work. The older generation that still can accept, and young — definitely not. This was due to errors of the Russian diplomacy in the 1990-ies, when Moscow could only think about their own survival. As a result, small Nations decided to seek a new patron in the West. But the economy determines politics. For example, if Moldova will continue to improve relations with the European Union to the detriment of Russian interests, the Moldovans who work on our construction sites and annually sending home about 4.5 billion euros, will lose their jobs. That’s a third of the country’s GDP. So I think that Chisinau will agree to Moscow’s proposed “road map”.

Mikhail TROITSKIY, associate Professor of international relations and foreign policy of Russia, MGIMO: “the Economy always follows politics. It is impossible to establish good neighborly relations, without solving territorial disputes before it. Once that happens, the expansion of NATO to the East will be stopped. But as for the trade, the Association with the EU can be abolished only in the case of the collapse of a United Europe and the explosive growth of the Russian economy. If Russia will continue to perceive current trends as encroachments on its interests in the region, in the future the number of conflicts with unpredictable development will only increase. Given that Moscow believes that, in the form of territories and defending the self-proclaimed Republic, it strengthens our security, all there is to it”.

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