On Wednesday in Brussels will host a meeting of the Council Russia-NATO – the first after the Crimea. For more than two years of open geopolitical conflict between Russia and the West, the Board will meet for the first time. Although NATO continues to play the theme of the “Russian threat”, the Atlanticists want to demonstrate to the Europeans that they are ready to dialogue with Russia. Otherwise it is impossible to save Atlantic solidarity.
Contacts between Russia and NATO was not in the spring of 2014 – when Russia was declared a threat to peace and the Atlantic bloc attended the building a “protection against further expansion of Putin.” Delusional – or not call – warning about the Russian threat to the Baltic States and Poland in two years become common place in the Atlantic propaganda.
“When the spring mobilization anti-slips, the Atlantic unity can dramatically weaken, if not to crack”
Although a lot of reasonable American and European politicians and analysts all the time repeated that Russia’s actions in Ukraine still can not be regarded as unwarranted (indeed, part of historical Russia was about to be subjected to European integration, with subsequent atlantische – it’s Russian so nervous), on the General line of NATO it had no effect. The threat from the Eastern flank became officially recognized – and this is the case when “fact” that you invented for some purposes, it becomes “reality”, that is, requires specific actions.
Why the Americans needed the myth about the Russian threat to the Baltic States and Poland? They had two aims – firstly, to make European allies-vassals will be connected to the policy of isolation of Russia. It was necessary to organize large-scale pressure on Moscow, the forces of the entire West – is so powerful that Putin refused to fight for Ukraine. Washington knew that there was no return of the Crimea will not be – but hoped that seeing a United front of Western countries, Moscow will accept the loss of the rest of Ukraine.
This was both naive and arrogant hopes, but the US was angered that Russia did not want to give up already “lost” Ukraine, and decided to play big. Big, because the stakes in this game was not even Ukraine – that it will not be able to divert under the umbrella of the Atlantic States actually quietly resigned by the end of 2014, even knowing that can and do lose it.
Rate became Europe – no matter how loud it sounds. Because intimidation of their own European allies “aggression of Putin” is a dangerous thing – instilling in them the fear of the mythical threat and at the same time forcing them to sever ties with Russia, the US risked that is dissatisfied with the neglect of their interests, the Europeans then remember the humiliation of Washington. And when the spring mobilization anti-slips, the Atlantic unity can dramatically weaken, if not to crack.The correlation of the military potentials of Russia and NATO
Did I believe in Washington in the presence of the Russian threat to the Eastern flank of NATO? Of course not – except for some already quite Russophobic minded characters among the neocons. Believed in Europe American stories? There is none – except, of course, part of the political elites of Poland and the Baltic States who mainly played in the American game is based on the desire to raise the importance of their countries in the Atlantic roster. Worked the “Eastern threat”, whether it helped Americans to achieve desired goals? By and large no, on the contrary, the myth is already playing against them.
In the first stage anti-Russian hysteria had a tonic effect on the Europeans – after all there was a war in the East of Ukraine, and the propaganda that this is only the first step in the Russian advance to the West, partly worked. Century old traditions of images of Russian as a threat to Europe fueled a General climate of fear. “Putin seize the Baltic States, will threaten Poland, he wants to destabilize the whole of Europe” – and no word on what the promotion of the Atlantic Alliance to the East and provoked secession and war in Ukraine.
But then the war in Ukraine has largely ceased, Europeans increasingly began to demand the collapse of sanctions and a return to normal relations with Moscow. The stranglehold of the “Atlantic solidarity” still makes European elites to keep the system – but the more, the more public dissatisfaction, even from quite the Atlanticist forces. At the same time, almost all European countries are gaining strength eurosceptics – most of which are in favor and against the American diktat, against a quarrel with Russia.
Next year in key European countries, Germany and France, the elections are held – even Atlanticist policy will have to show voters care about the national interest. Most of them believes that the conflict with Russia is not among them – and enough to be a puppet of the Americans.
Moreover, as the United States itself in the last year in the open trying to negotiate with Russia where it is in their national interests – Iran, Syria. Europeans feel cheated and any alarms about the “threat from the East” is no longer valid even at the level of propaganda. The US can not stop in the operation of the “Russian factor” and use it only in the information war. We need to move from words to action – to demonstrate its concern about the security of Europe.
And here in Warsaw the decision on accommodation in the Baltic States and Poland four battalions of NATO. From a purely military point of view, it does not matter – it is clear that if Russia had gone mad and attacked these countries, several thousand NATO soldiers had no serious resistance. This is purely a propaganda gesture – here, you see, we are protecting the Eastern flank. From Russia? Yeah, well, you know its aggressive nature. No, it turns out, I do not understand – in addition to outright Russophobia no one believes in the desire of Russia to attack the world’s largest military Alliance.
Worse, don’t believe it in the United States – and more than likely win in November Donald trump in General can lead to a revision of us policy on Ukraine. Not that the new President “will return” Ukraine to Russia – but he has repeatedly said that it’s a European problem that is solved it needs the Europeans along with the Russians.
But it is clear how to decide its Europe – if you imagine that she will be allowed to negotiate with Moscow about the future of square, Ukraine will be suspended as no man’s land, neutral territory. In addition, the winning trump in itself will be a major blow for the Ukrainian elite, which relied on whipping up confrontation between the West and Russia – and, by implication, lead to the reshuffling of the government in Kiev.
Not worked the “Eastern threat” and one of the most important for the Atlanticists issue – work on the conclusion of the Transatlantic trade and investment partnership. Agreement on the creation of “economic NATO” had to be signed before the end of this year – but it is already clear that this will not happen. The position of France and partly Germany has actually led to a new phase of globalization – through trade and economic integration in the Anglo-Saxon terms of the two shores of the Atlantic – was at least postponed.
In the post-election future which both the Old and the New world now seems much less the Atlantic. National elites are trying to take revenge from the globalist power – and it is likely that in the coming year they will succeed. Yes, revenge may be temporary – but in any case it would lead to a very serious test for the Atlantic bloc.
In these circumstances, the best tactic of Russia in relations with the Atlanticists is waiting – the internal contradictions in the Western camp are growing, time really works for us. Supporting national-oriented forces in the EU, working with various Western countries on a bilateral basis, playing on a global Board with a supra-national Anglo-Saxon elite, we are consistently improving their position.
Given how we are weak in institutional, governmental, financial and economic terms, how much worse was our original position in the confrontation with the Atlantic strategy, we can say that the game is shaping up to us more than favorably.Related posts: