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Friday, December 9, 2016

In the state Duma may remain the “big three”


Holding intra-party elections helped the United Russia (UR) to strengthen the electoral positions. According to political analysts, in addition to the EP only LDPR and the Communist party is guaranteed to be held in the state Duma of the next convocation. Such forecast contains in research of the Committee on politics. The worst result should show PARNASSUS. The opposition failed election campaign.

A prediction on the future composition of the State Duma gave the Committee on politics of the Russian Association on public relations (RASO). The state Duma of the next convocation could be three. A study published on the website of the organization, it was conducted from July 6 to July 11. For the preparation of the report were interviewed, several dozen political scientists and political consultants. They assess the chances of the parties to overcome the 5 percent barrier.

“In addition, the PARNAS comes to the polls without a clear and compelling programmatic positions. Therefore, it is unlikely they will receive more than 1%”

Unconditional chances of passage to Parliament have “United Russia”, CPRF and LDPR. The analysts say that the EP is most pronounced conditions of leadership: the maximum geographic representation, and organizational structure, most financial resources and the largest core constituency. In addition, United Russia has the aura of “Putin’s party”, although the actual leadership in the list belongs to the Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

In addition, the party successfully held in may internal party elections (primaries), failing to mobilize the electorate. Thus “United Russia” managed to create the most powerful regional lists and communicate with regional elites.

“The party has demonstrated its political will by implementing outdoor gear”

“The primaries of the party “United Russia” has allowed it to keep leadership in the information space, to allow a number of elite conflicts at the preliminary stage and to generate stronger than the competition, regional lists,” – said the President of holding “Minchenko consulting” Evgenie Minchenko.

Political analyst Vasily Bokov, in the primaries of United Russia were uncovered and suppressed inner conflicts which now will not affect the course of the campaign.”

Similar is the opinion of the member of the expert Council of the Institute of socio-economic and political studies Alexei Zudin. “Given all that we know about primaries, and about how this mechanism was implemented by the party “United Russia” in the country, I’m inclined to agree with the conclusions of colleagues, – said Zudin. – What happened this year, referring to national scale the use of the mechanism of the primaries was not for party impromptu. The mechanism of “United Russia” developed years and in this time, based on his experience, chose the open model of pre-voting, convenient and comfortable both for voters and for candidates, those people who decided to try their hand in the preliminary vote.”

Zudin said that “the selected model allowed to Express themselves candidates even before the start of the race, a preliminary vote gave the candidates a chance to raise the likelihood of their electoral success.” However, the expert assured, voters also procedure seemed necessary. “They were able to form party lists, the names in them are not the result of someone’s will to high party offices, – said Zudin. And the party in this case had demonstrated its political will by implementing this open mechanism.

“Yes, in the primaries of “United Russia” in some cases there have been tension, there were conflicts, regional leaders wanted to influence the results of the preliminary vote, but the party was consistently the chosen path and let the difficult questions – said Zudin. – In addition, successful implementation of the mechanism of primaries received a high rating of President Vladimir Putin.”

Zudin sure actually, with the deployment of “United Russia” of early voting across the country, this mechanism of intra-party turned into a national political Institute. “Formed a new political reality that you can’t ignore the other party, as if they wanted to, because the primaries and give the electoral and reputational gain. They lag behind in this matter, but the situation is almost uncontested: there was a significant step, it is something you need to answer,” said Zudin.

“Strong average”

The liberal democratic party were and remain the three pillars of success: a charismatic leader Vladimir Zhirinovsky, ideology and geography. While via media presence the liberal Democrats are second only to United Russia. Still, the party has a stable average relative to the base of the electorate, Finance, and organizational structure.

As for the Communist party, the benefits of party experts see only in the presence of steady disciplined electorate and broad geographical representation. But by the time of the start of the election campaign the Communists failed to expand in other directions, where they remain “strong middle peasants”.

Spravedlivorossy in question

Slightly more than half the respondents (55%) do not exclude that the state Duma will be held and “Fair Russia” (SR), and only 25% of survey participants admit the passage of the “homeland”. The problem of SR is negligible base electorate, vague ideology and the absence of strong charismatic leaders. “Homeland” can boast a network of regional and ideological resources, while in all other areas it has failed to provide sufficient resources.

Member of the Public chamber, the President of Fund of research of problems of democracy Maxim Grigoriev considers that the issue of a possible passage to the state Duma of the three parties is a matter falling into the Parliament of the SR.

“It will depend on the positioning of the “Fair Russia”, as they actively manage to conduct the campaign… how they can show themselves, on the one hand, opposition force, and not identical with the agenda of the “United Russia”. On the other hand, it is obvious that overdo it in their criticism of the EP, CP can receive the response from the “United Russia”, – said Grigoriev the newspaper LOOK.

Who will be able to overcome the threshold

About 60% of respondents agree that the Party of pensioners, Yabloko and Rodina can overcome the threshold of three percent (this allows parties to receive funding from the state and the right of admission to the next Federal and regional elections). The same “Apple”, though represented in most regions, suffers from the fact that offices are bloodless and do not have sufficient resources to expand the active campaign.

The lowest electoral prospects has PARNASSUS. Only five percent of scientists do not exclude that the party, headed by Mikhail Kasyanov earns 3%. Experts point out that in the liberal niche of high competition, and Parnassus, there is a resource to help convey the signal to voters, especially after breaking with former allies, who at least had their social networks on the Internet. Parnassus also failed to generate effective Federal and regional lists of candidates, a field campaign of the party in fact.

According to the Chairman of the Board of “Baxter group” Dmitry Gusev, “after scandals with nuclear Parnas liberal electorate broke away from the party”. “Bulk generally calls for boycotting elections. In addition, the PARNAS comes to the polls without a clear and compelling programmatic positions. Therefore, it is unlikely they will receive more than 1 percent,” – said the expert.

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