At the end of II quarter 2016 the difference between currency flows in and out of the country totaled $3.4 billion, which Is three times less than in the first quarter, and five times — than the year before. At the same time Russia in June for the first time in 2014 spent more than earned. The outflow of currency amounted to $1.84 billion Experts interviewed by “MK”, disagreed about how dangerous it is for our economy. Someone predicts that in the autumn we will face a shortage of currency, and the dollar will rise up to 67 rubles. However, optimists are sure: do not worry citizens, this situation shall not be — lining up for the currency will not.
photo: Natalia Muslinkina
In the CBA the main reason for the reduction of inflow of currency call a significant reduction in the cost of exports in terms of low prices for raw materials. So, by may oil revenues decreased by 34.2%, gas — by 31.4%. However, decreased imports. However, much slower — only 10.6%. Will there be enough currency for ordinary citizens, “MK” asked the experts.
Pavel MEDVEDEV, the financial Ombudsman:
“The two main reasons for the decline in foreign exchange inflows is the reduction of export of raw materials and its actually cheaper. Of course, imports are also decreasing, but the speed reduction it lags behind exports. Due to the fall in the purchasing power of citizens in recent times are buying less currency. This has a positive impact on the ruble. To worry about currency exchange offices is not enough, not worth it.”
Pavel SIGAL, the first Vice-President “SUPPORT of Russia”:
“The fall of inflow of foreign currency risk that the situation that we saw in November-December of 2014 may be repeated again. But in a milder format. While in the domestic market do not feel the shortage of currency is largely due to the fact that exporting companies are forced to buy rubles for settlements on taxes and payments of dividends. However, in the autumn they will produce large-scale payments on foreign debt. As a result, the domestic market may be a shortage that will trigger a sharp depreciation of the ruble. Another devaluation of the national currency will cause inflation and may force the Bank to re-raise a bet that will prevent the recovery of the domestic economy — the “territory growth,” it will be released only by mid-2017.
Timur NIGMATULLIN, an analyst CC “FINAM”:
“As shown by the dynamics of the currency pair dollar/ruble in the last 1.5 months, quotations of the national currency less dependent on the situation on the energy market. To a large extent the reason the quotes have contributed to reducing the outflow of capital, which is in the hands of the national currency in the face of shrinking positive balance of payments of the country. So, according to the Bank, the balance has decreased almost threefold compared to the same period in 2015, that is, in General, the money in our country began to get less and less. But at the same time the net outflow of capital from Russia in January–June 2016 decreased by almost 5 times compared to the same period last year to $10.5 billion, according to data of the Central Bank. Such dynamics is due to a sharp, but anticipated reduction in payments for foreign debts of domestic companies and the gradual revival of demand for Russian assets from foreign investors. In these conditions even with further decline in oil prices to $40 per barrel, the ruble is relatively stable, and the dollar is unlikely to exceed 66 rubles.”
Anna VOVK, Director and co-owner of consulting company “A-KONSALT”:
“The last thing to worry about, is the shortage of foreign currency in exchange. The banks themselves such do not feel deficit, and foreign exchange reserves of the Central Bank to avoid it. The extremely low value of the balance of payments tells about much more serious problems. Its a fivefold reduction cannot be attributed to cheap oil. The main problem is that in fact, declining real export of raw materials. That is, we lose our share in the world market. .
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