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Thursday, March 15, 2018

What should be the strategy of Moscow after the NATO summit in Warsaw

A massive session of group hatred, followed by the polite invitation of the object of this hatred at a ceremonial tea — some way to describe the trajectory of Russia’s relations with NATO in the first half of July. On megaslate NATO last week in Warsaw a policy from NATO countries seemed to have arranged an informal competition: who intricate branded “aggressive clique of Putin.”

But at a meeting of the Council Russia–NATO, which will be held this Wednesday, Moscow is expected to convince in the absence of the Alliance of hostile intentions.

How to understand this? As something very strange and illogical? Not at all. We are dealing with a classic political strategy of carrot and stick. At the NATO summit Russia was trying to intimidate. The Council Russia–NATO Moscow will try to appease, to calm, to convince you that actually the Alliance is her most faithful, sincere, but honest.

It seems to me that both Russia in any case should not be taken at face value. First and foremost, it refers to a Grand anti-Russian hysteria in Warsaw that an attempt by NATO to get involved in this environment in sheep’s clothing anyone in Moscow will not convince you, I do not doubt. On the title page of the official website of NATO held in the capital of Poland is characterized by the action of the English adjective “landmark”, which can be translated as “mythic,” “symbolic,” or even as “a turning point”.

But in reality, from my point of view, in Warsaw just did not happen anything “landmark”. At the NATO summit wasn’t even anything really new. This event should be treated as lush, beautiful and compelling and Grand propaganda show — not less but also not more. And do not think that I write these words in order to calm the agitated speeches of Western politicians in Warsaw nerves or to downplay the scale of Russian foreign policy problems.

Both is stupid. But no less stupid to fall for the tricks of political illusionists of NATO and to believe in something that is against Russia United “virtually all of Europe and beyond” and our position is “almost hopeless.” It is also quite untrue. What, then, is this fact appropriate?

It seems to me that in order to understand this, you first need to determine clearly who was the main “interested parties” sharply anti-Russian orientation of NATO summit? Such “interested parties” — several. This is, firstly, the anti-Russian bloc within NATO — Poland, the former Soviet republics of the Baltic States and, to a lesser extent, Scandinavia. Secondly, it is the main power of the Alliance — America. Third, a country that is not part of NATO but is reluctant to go, Ukraine.

Why anti-Russian hysteria in the Polish capital was necessary to Kiev, Warsaw, Vilnius and Riga — it is clear and does not require special explanations. But that’s why it was needed in America — topic is much more interesting. “Russian threat” — it is for US primarily a very effective tool of political control over Europe. When between Moscow and the West in political terms, peace and quiet — now it’s hard to believe, but in the not too distant past this was also, within NATO begins with the confusion and vacillation.

Troublemakers among the European politicians are beginning to ask questions: why should we meekly obey the Americans? Are they really that we need? But, when the horizon suddenly again begins to loom “terrible Russian threat”, all these conversations are starting to be perceived as dangerous or even crazy whim. American politicians an opportunity to instruct its European allies: “come, boys, to the foot!”

The American generals and the American military-industrial complex — also happiness. Now they can blackmail lawmakers demanding increased funding. Like, immediately give the money for the project. Otherwise, America and its allies will be vulnerable to aggressive and insidious intentions of the villain Putin!

In other words, our clever Maria Zakharova of the Ministry of foreign Affairs is how to prove that “NATO continues to exist in some kind of military-political looking glass… in Spite of… need to pair the capabilities of all responsible international actors in countering real rather than illusory challenges the Alliance focuses its efforts on “containing” non-existent “threat from the East”.

Useless, Maria Vladimirovna! If “non-existent threat” bring someone fantastic political dividends, they over and over again will be declared “more real than reality itself.” What, then, can and should do Russia in a situation when all its arguments initially rejected as “false propaganda” and “information garbage”? Here’s what I think the chief himself not to slip into “military-political Wonderland.”

We need to see that Europe, which is not the one, admittedly, with undoubted talent, to draw the NATO propagandists. What Europe was before the NATO meeting in Warsaw, so it by and large remained. Were, for example, fatigue from the sanctions war with Russia, from the prolonged conflict in Ukraine and from Ukraine itself, which is all the more capricious and hysterical.

And about the country whose President is a big fan of NATO, Petro Poroshenko. A strong anti-Russian sentiment in Ukraine, of course, went nowhere. But in the Ukrainian public opinion, new — possible, yet not very distinctly expressed tendency: disappointment over the fact that two years of actual stay of country in the Western Alliance did not bring her any special benefits and dividends. If the conflict between Moscow and Kiev will not escalate, then after a certain number of years of relations between the two States will become less intense. Still heat, of course, will not. But not, I hope, the current unbridled animosity.

Not be discounted, and the recent reconciliation with Turkey and the conflict in Syria, where the West is still interested in cooperation with Moscow… what am I saying all this? To the fact that in the hands of Moscow is not so little trumps as it is trying to convince us to join NATO. Of course, the presence of the trumps does not mean that we will be able to play them correctly. But no reason to panic after the NATO summit that we just do not.

But there are reasons for extra caution in terms of avoiding accidental military clashes of the Russian divisions from the West. NATO and our planes and ships fly and swim very close to each other. NATO and our military is listening to the voice of its politicians. Given the naked state of nerves on both sides of the new ideological “iron curtain”, this situation is admittedly precarious. I hope that the Council Russia–NATO on Wednesday the topic will be the subject of close attention. Then from this action will be real good.

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