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Friday, March 23, 2018

Turkish rose

In Kazan will be held a meeting of Ministers of economy and energy of Russia and Turkey. The occasion – the opening in the free economic zone Alabuga another Turkish company. Its main goal is the resumption of negotiations on the construction of the gas pipeline “Turkish stream”, which was interrupted at the end of last year from-for sharp deterioration of bilateral relations. After the official apology to Ankara for the downed in the sky of Syria, the Russian su-24 bomber, the positions of the countries again gradually approach. One of the main priorities – the delivery of Russian gas to Europe via Turkey. However, experts ‘ opinions were divided. Many believe that Russia is now more profitable to stretch across the Baltic sea to Germany the pipeline “Nord stream-2 than to return to cooperation with unreliable partners.

photo: ru.wikipedia.org

Not all experts paid due attention to the fact that the President of Turkey Recep Tyip Erdogan went back on his word not only to Moscow and tel Aviv. If the “freezing” of relations with the capital lasted only six months, the second – more than six years.

Undoubtedly, the main reason is geopolitics. The situation in the border with Turkey, Syria is not improving dramatically. Growing refugee flows and the pressure from the West, waiting for Ankara to strengthen the fight against ISIS (banned in Russia). But there’s another aspect of geo-economic rather gas.

Recently in Ankara, dreaming himself as the main hub (distributor) gas flows to the European Union. For this, the Turks have quite objective reasons.

To begin, Ankara is focused on the future deliveries of gas from Azerbaijan, possibly from Turkmenistan, and, above all, Iran. Have long developed various gas corridors coming from these countries to the EU. Just to compete with Russia. But gas until there is clearly not enough, even in Iran. In this country we need to invest to start a multibillion-dollar investment in the development of the local gas industry. Besides, Tehran is not configured completely dependent on Ankara when you export your “blue fuel”. Rather, it will develop the capacity to liquefy gas to export it in desired directions.

But something from the Middle East, Asia Minor, of course, get. And here by the way, it turns out that the gas found in the coastal area of Israel. It is not so much. But enough to meet domestic needs and a surplus to export. But where exactly?

Probably in the pipeline which will be laid on the bottom of the Mediterranean sea, Cyprus, which in this case would be one of the largest gas hubs in the Old world.

But Turkey is clearly harmful. She needs to become a major gas hub for Europe. Therefore, the reconciliation with tel Aviv and happened.

But in this case, gas for the EU is still not enough. All of these fields are not clogged with fuel to capacity. Without large-scale deliveries of “blue fuel” from Russia to Turkey as a gas hub will not be turned out.

So Ankara best new talks on Turkish stream. They can begin as early as late July in Kazan, where it will arrive a few Turkish Ministers on the opening of a new joint venture in the free economic zone Alabuga. Anyway, this was stated by first Deputy Minister of economic development of Russia Alexei Likhachev (did not rule out such a development and the Minister of energy Alexander Novak) and Turkish economy Minister Nihat Zeybekci.

Recall that the Memorandum between “Gazprom” and Turkish company Botas Petroleum Pipeline Corporation of understanding on construction of gas pipeline “Coreceptor” was signed on December 1, 2014. His route was to start from compressor station “Russkaya” near Anapa, then walk along the bottom of the Black sea (900 km), and then reached the European part of Turkey. From there to the border with Greece. This 660 km underwater part could be already explored by Gazprom corridor, prepared for the so-called “South stream”.

The latest pipeline project kicked the bucket due to the strong opposition of the EU. Brussels officials have forced the Bulgarian government (which actually should have been released from the sea gas pipeline) to refuse from cooperation with Russia. Claims “Gazprom” allegedly violates the third EU energy package, which prohibits one company to simultaneously produce, transport and sell gas.

But through the “South stream” was planned to pump up to 63 billion cubic meters of gas per year. That is enough to stop pumping gas through Ukraine. Not accidentally, the first “Turkish stream” was calculated at 63 billion cubic meters. However, later the head of “Gazprom” Alexey Miller reduced the volume by half – to 32-33 billion.

So, it would seem that to both sides: Russia and Turkey, and profitable as quickly as possible to launch the “Turkish stream”. Ankara will finally become the main gas hub for Europe (Brussels it is not a decree, it is not included in the EU), and Moscow, will pass through the sea gas transportation system of Ukraine, which is known to be so technically obsolete that soon itself will cease to exist. What can we say about the political differences between Kiev and Moscow.

But not so simple. At the last St. Petersburg international economic forum Alexey Miller has presented new plans for its gas corporations. It turns out that Russia is more profitable to export the fuel as its main consumers (Germany, France, Austria and even Italy) through a new project – the Nord stream-2″, which is proposed to lay parallel to the Nord stream-1″ at the bottom of the Baltic sea. The volumes are similar to the “Turkish stream” is about 33 billion cubic meters. The fact that gas production in Russia is farther away to the North, and from there to put cheaper gas in comparison with Ukraine and Turkey, the Northern routes, and then through the Baltic sea to Germany. And energy restrictions can be circumvented in the following way. Buy Russian gas at the German company are not on the beach, as it is now on the project “Nord stream 1”, and in international waters. Therefore, Germany will have not legally Russian, and German gas. And there to the requirements of the third energy package Brussels have long adapted.

So why should we “coast Turkish”? Yes, actually there is no need. All the matter in financial terms. If they are favorable. And here we must note that on the “southern” dash “Turkish” streams “Gazprom”, according to various estimates, spent up to $5 billion If Ankara will offer something exceptional, Ukraine, we will go all the same by two routes: South and North.

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