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Friday, December 9, 2016

Food inflation by the end of the year exceeds 10 percent


The first half behind. So, it’s time to take stock and to predict future crisis future. Weekly adding of 0.4%, inflation from the beginning of the year came to 3.7%. While all the planned economists. However, if we look at Rosstat data from the consumer point of view, the numbers will turn out well in double digits. In the tops of the advancers from January — potato (+48%), carrots (+39,3%), onion (+26,3%), buckwheat (+26.7%) and cabbage (+22,6%). However, since the cucumbers fell by half and the tomatoes and eggs — almost 20%. Only they will not last long. Rostovska the minimum food basket since January has risen the national average of 6.7%. Peter — 7.1%, in Moscow — by 9.3%. So here it is, the desired food inflation is 7-8%. It is easy to calculate that by the end of the year it certainly will exceed 10%.


photo: Natalia Muslinkina

For the future

Now, guided by the official statistics and our monitoring, try to predict the price behaviour seasonal and non-seasonal foods. Let’s start with those who in June, “hung”, fluctuations of 0.1% will not consider. This bakery products from wheat flour 1-St and 2-nd grades, canned meat, sausages (cooked and smoked), sausage, sausage, milk, cheese, sour cream, cheese (hard and soft), fine black tea. Incidentally, the latter have increased in price in 6 months for more than 9%. But after the June break in July again went on increasing.

Enviable demonstrates the stability of sunflower oil for June has risen in price by a penny, although for the year added already to 4.2%. We have 1 liter of a well known brand in the “economy” is worth 99 rubles, but in the middle class — 129,9. However, cheaper counterparts to the consumer should not be afraid. Studies show experts Roskoshestvo, their composition is almost the same, and the difference in price is significant. For example, 1 liter of oil under own trade mark (STM) is 62.5 rubles. Just do not forget that this product should be stored in a cool dark place, especially in summer.

Eggs, in all probability, have been low season prices in June fell by 5.5%), and now began slowly to gain. In the shops of the middle class they cost about 40 rubles per dozen, true to size resemble quail — very small. Decent size starts from 50 rubles.

Synchronously with the egg behaves sugar. If in may it fell by 1.5%, in June rose by 2.5%. Judging by the weekly dynamics, the trend to improve will continue in the near future. Over the past week, it gained 1.7%. No wonder the “MK” in the spring predicted such a situation. After all, is the season of the jams, and the demand increases the price.

From the group of vegetables to cheaper cucumbers and tomatoes for the last two or three weeks was joined by onions. Growing carrots last week stopped the growth. While the potatoes are still creeping up, but slowly. We can say that, in General, borscheva set and stabilized a little in the near future will be cheaper. With the exception of cabbage. The average for June, it fell by 10%, but since the second half of the month again began to grow. For last week the rise in prices amounted to more than 4%.

Bananas in June and July resemble cucumbers in the winter. Rot on the shelves because of the falling demand. Like and fell to 5-7 rubles, but still, few take. Yes, and what in the heat of the bananas, when all around other beauty plenty: seasonal vegetables, strawberries, cherries, cherries…

Appeared in the sale of the first apples (white filling) of the new crop. Only here the price has “bite”. In the capital they are sold at 120-135 rubles per 1 kg, which is twice as expensive as bananas.

In the summer we not only satisfied our need for vitamins, but also quenching thirst. But here there is a tendency, alas, is not very healthy.

Juices, water, beer and crawfish

According to retail audit Nielson, for the year, only two categories of non-alcoholic beverages showed an increase: Cola (+7%) and energy (+6%). I must say that their share in the structure of consumption is still low: 10% and 2% respectively. The others “dipped”. Mineral water — 2%, juices — 7%, soft drinks — 5%. But leading shares they still retain: 41%, 20% and 17%.

There are my reasons. In valuing the mineral water customers began to save or even to abandon it. Juices also added to the price, but still lost the image of their usefulness. If they buy, mostly for promotions.

Thus, the demand of the Russians is shifting towards beverages, is far from useful. Energy in solely the fact that continue its expansion into the regions and over the year has shown the lowest price growth — 3%. And in the category of low-calorie Cola appeared new, but still endlessly spun them in a positive way. Plus binding to the sport. Especially since this summer was rich in sporting events: the European championship on football and the Olympics.

One more drink (but alcohol) is associated with many sports and “rooting” for your favorite team. This is the beer. However, observations of poll, 59% of Russians consider watching sporting events with beer inappropriate. But at gatherings with friends-mates — at the time we voted 68%.

By the way, almost half of Russians (46%) are indifferent to foamy drink and never drink. And the rest, it seems, tired of the imported formulation: 72% would like to see on the shelves of the beer produced by traditional Russian technology. There is a reason to think about our brewers.

Soon slipnetsya

Usually in the summer do not want sweets, except ice cream. Nevertheless, in the spring of chocolate producers perked up noticeably. Why? The fact is that from February 28, 2016 for a term until 31 December 2017 zeroed import duties (3-5%) for its main components: cocoa paste and cocoa butter. And the results were not long in coming. According to the Center for research of the confectionery market, the volume of import of pasta in April of this year in comparison with March has increased by almost 50%, oil — by 25.7%. “Confectioners” is clearly making up for lost time last year when their industry was almost on the verge of a foul.

However, the user can relax and not much to rejoice. Chocolate is cheaper. So, in any case, experts say. Exempt of duty 1 billion (annually) will go to the restoration industry. Well? Let them work for us and the Chinese for good. And at what here, actually, are they? Is even that: the export of flour and chocolate from Russia to China increased significantly. If things keep going in the same vein, soon China will become our customer No. 1, edging out Kazakhstan, Belarus and Kyrgyzstan.

Buckwheat is not: all were taken

Gaining momentum and the export of our agricultural products. According to the Ministry, only for the first four months he showed a five percent increase (in dollar terms), or 30.5% in physical volume of supplies.

Export — it is certainly beneficial for the country. However, it is important not to overdo it. And what happens with buckwheat. Really loved last year’s record crop, the export increased. But did not consider that the stocks of cereals for their own needs not so much. Admitted a miscalculation led to a rice shortage in the domestic market. Prices, respectively, react: the day will continue to grow until the completion of the processing of the new harvest. According to Rosstat, from the beginning, croup has risen by 26.7%, exceeding the inflation rate more than 7 times. According to the observations of “MK” — and even more. Thus, in one Metropolitan store of the middle class is the cheapest grade has risen from 54.9 in January) to 84.5 RUB, and this is, anyway, plus almost 54%.

People — bones, power — pulp

Weekly monitoring of the prices of Rosstat for meat shows that since the beginning of the year is 4.3% cheaper pork, and beef over the past week by 0.1%. That sounds promising — except for one clause. In brackets is clarification: except for boneless meat. So initially average Russian pulp in the daily diet are not even supposed to. And yet, just like in Soviet times. It was on the shelves? Basically neesiana bones and chicken legs. The pulp is sold under the counter, for “their” population.

Now that there is no deficit. But the capital price of beef pulp 500 rubles per 1 kg — most can’t afford. Here people pass by, rejoicing for those who can afford it.

Helps chicken. The carcass is in Moscow admissible and stable: 100 to 130 rubles per 1 kg. popular brands — from 150. Chicken for the month rose slightly, by an average of 10 rubles. Unbleached farm chicken (yellow in color), consequently, more expensive — 140-180 RUB.

How to outwit the farmer

Muscovites “lucky” in life. If the utilities since July 1 has risen in the country at 3.4 to 5.5%, the capital — 7.5%. The three leaders — Peter and Yakutia: 6.5%. Farm vegetables at the weekend markets also have to pay.

From the comparative plate is clearly visible. So, almost at double the price sold potatoes, cucumbers, greens. At the same level — only the radishes.

But if the buyer saves — he can find the way how to do it. It is enough to observe. So, Friday is the most expensive day at the fair. Should wait at least until Saturday evening. Then prices are reduced, but still slightly, high for 10-15 rubles. And in the second half Sunday, when farmers are already going home, you can buy everything at half price. But there is a risk that the selection is small, and the quality of, say, berries is not the same.

The kit also has not been canceled. As a rule, the weights of the boxes are not even visible. Who knows why there is a count c of zero or 20 grams? Trading is done smartly and quickly. Giving the bowl a product, the seller does not even allow them to calm down so they could give correct figures. And again I remember the Soviet times. Only then sawed the cast iron weights, so they were easier. And now messing with the electronics.

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