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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

Sweden and Finland needs NATO over Ukraine with Georgia

In Warsaw completed the first day of the 27th summit of the countries-members of NATO. On the agenda of the meeting of the Alliance in the Polish capital — the strengthening of the Eastern flank by troops in direct proximity with Russia, opposition to international terrorism (including in the cyberterrorists), the “Russian threat”, and overcoming the problems triggered by Britain’s decision to withdraw from the EU. However, one long – term challenge for NATO is the expansion of the Alliance. We are talking about countries such as Finland, Georgia, Ukraine, Moldova, and Montenegro – all of them in one way or another expressed their interest to enter into the Alliance. What are the prospects for the adoption of NATO “MK” talked with an expert.

photo: AP

Just before the Warsaw summit in Finland was carried out regular surveys on the interest of the inhabitants of the country in joining NATO. However, while sociologists question put this way – would like to hold a referendum on the accession of Finland into the Alliance. At the moment, taking into account statistical error, the number of supporters and opponents of the popular vote is approximately equal. The question is how the Alliance is interested in accepting new members?

“The so-called policy of “open door” for NATO after the cold war – a key and important point which has never been withdrawn from the agenda, recalled in an interview with “MK” head of sector of regional security issues Centre for defence studies of the RISS Sergei ERMAKOV. Why? Now the Alliance can boast that it is the effective tool of conflict resolution, the focus is on extensive development and expansion. This wave – like process, because NATO needed time to “digest” the new members, but it is clear that it is long term, and will continue with varying intensity. An important point in this case, the format of the extension. For example, informal membership, when countries are tied to NATO, but not enter it. For the Alliance it is definitely the most preferred option, as this state does not apply the fifth article of the NATO Charter (that the attack on its members is regarded as an attack on the entire block), but on the territory of these countries can solve their military and strategic objectives – albeit on a temporary basis. We saw a similar example in Sweden during the Libyan campaign, for example. But, nevertheless, from time to time some countries need to bring themselves to demonstrate commitment to the policy of “open doors”. And it is clear that in Tbilisi or Kiev for such a stick – or carrot – will hang permanently. For the Alliance the adoption of Georgia or Ukraine is not so profitable – that converge themselves to the NATO experts, who, even before the summit in Chicago in 2012 noted that a much more important potential members are Sweden and Finland. And these countries usually seen in pairs, and we see now that the intensity of the processes related to the future NATO membership of these States increases. Are some information campaigns, drawing them to the population the advantages of stay in the Alliance. Another thing is that Finland tend to look at the neighbors, how it behaves in this respect Stockholm. Of course, this question is not immediate but informal, these countries are already very close to the Alliance. In occasion of the formal membership in NATO is also a consensus emerged, as Finland and Sweden closed all the Scandinavian space, giving the military a strategic advantage in case of a potential confrontation with Russia.”

There is a third conditional “pair”: Moldova and Montenegro, the accession to NATO which is very concerned about Moscow… In the case of the first country, the expert said, the Alliance has no understanding of how to deal with the state, which is all the time a fever in the first place, in the political sphere.

“As for Montenegro, the Balkans in General, it is very sensitive to the block region, and to make some kind of “horseshoe” the NATO leaders wanted for a very long time – reminds Sergey Ermakov. – It is not necessary to forget and about such factor, as “pulling up” to NATO of Serbia. This will solve not only the strategic but also a political task – it is the legitimization of the military campaign against the former Yugoslavia”.

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