Apartments and houses in the Russian capital, not to mention the province, sold poorly. So bad that to fix the situation took power. Officials frighten people with statements about the imminent 10-12% rise in housing prices; claiming that a square meter cheaper not to be. Although, it would seem that officials should not interfere in commercial activities, which is, in particular, the sale of housing.
How can change the cost of housing in the coming months? On request “MK” experts gave their predictions.
photo: Alexander Astafyev
Over the last 12-15 months fell flat across the country — that is the statistics of a Single database of residential properties. In Omsk, Chelyabinsk, Voronezh and Volgograd new buildings cost of square metre for a year has fallen more than in other Russian cities — more than 10%. In 2015 it amounted to 53.6 thousand, 49,2 thousand, 53,5 54,9 thousand and thousand respectively. Now — 45,7 thousand, 44.1 per thousand, and 48.7 46.7 thousand thousand. Moscow and St. Petersburg also lost in value, although, of course, on the background of the above cities rates in the Russian capitals doesn’t look that attractive. A year ago, “the square” in Moscow cost 190,2 thousand rubles, now — 183,8 thousand, in Peter — 103 thousand, now — 102,7 thousand roubles.
— The number of transactions began to decline dramatically due to seasonality. According to my predictions, until the end of the year in the whole of Russia will be stagnation in prices for secondary housing in all segments, except for the elite (in the latter case, expect growth of 1-3%), says financial analyst “FINAM” Timur Nigmatullin. In real terms, falling prices will continue. Dynamics in the secondary will be due to persistent sluggish demand due to difficult economic conditions and flows of buyers for a primary, where, because of the subsidy program are currently lower mortgage rates. I recommend to buy housing on the primary mortgages at current low prices. Subsequently, as the reduction of the key rate of the Central Bank and rates of the mortgage loans will be cheap to refinance, but the purchase price will remain low.
On the resumption of growth of prices for apartments in new buildings, which can change the situation on the market as a whole, aimed and verbal interventions of representatives of major developers and Executive authorities, — says the experts CYANOGEN. — The statements of the leaders of the construction complex of Moscow and Moscow region, Marat Khusnullin, and Herman Alenushkina about the expected growth of prices in new buildings until the end of the year more than 10% indicate that the effect of adaptation measures to stagnating demand that were used by the developers since mid-2014, limited. Further reduction of space in new buildings is almost impossible, and lower prices (a clear — through the launch of new projects at low prices or hidden, through the stock outside of some venues in Moscow rests in the growing investment the cost of construction. Possible resumption of growth of prices may lead to an increase in the number of transactions from buyers, who in recent months a wait and see attitude regarding possible further price reductions.
Managing partner of “Metrium Groups” Maria Litinetskaya expects that the largest increases in value before the end of the year will occur in the mass segment. It will happen on the background of the completion of the subsidy program mortgage rate: the “Same situation we have seen in February 2016, when the end was not known the fate of the state of the construction industry and there has been considerable debate about the appropriateness of its extension. Then at sales office received a huge number of applications with the purpose of selection and purchase of real estate. Against the background of excessive demand, developers increased the cost of individual projects, even at 5-7% per month. A similar situation, and the increased interest in the primary real estate market, probably we will see in November-December 2016. However, it is unlikely that the increase in the cost per square meter exceeds 7-10%. To keep prices as there will be new projects, the launch of which is planned for this year. In this case the market has a unique situation, when in three projects of the business class you can buy an apartment in the budget up to 5 million rubles. And we are not talking about residential areas, and attractive locations.”
Now, however, there is a seasonal drop in registered contracts of sale by 13% compared to may. 2% fall in number of contracts equity, 4% mortgages.
— We believe that before the end of the year prices on the secondary market will gradually decline, but no more than 5% to the end of the year. Nominal prices on the primary market are stagnating, however the real costs for the purchase of primary residence slightly reduced, — says head of Department of Analytics of CENTURY 21 Russia Kirill Kotrikov. — This is due to bonuses and marketing promotions that are real estate developers.
The vast majority of sales on the secondary (namely 81%) continues to be at a discount, says Director of secondary market ” INKOM-real Estate Sergey Shloma. In June the share of such transactions were the highest on record since 2012: 83% of the total number of sold properties was implemented after bargaining for a fall. The average discount was 8.5%. Thus, the actual sales prices in the segment decreased for the year by about 15%. According to our estimates, the number of transactions will gradually grow, and the price gradually sliding by 5-7% per year. The market growth is not possible without addressing the fundamental negative factors that currently still limit the demand globally. It is primarily the low solvency of the population and the uncertainty of people in the stability of their financial situation. And the primary housing market was in a situation where the continuing increase in construction costs is accompanied by a decrease in selling prices. About working on the verge of profitability and the absence of the possibility of further price declines declare themselves the developers and the city administration. Thus, developers no longer have the ability to keep comfortable for the consumer the price difference with the objects of the secondary market. For the first time in the history of the Moscow real estate prices in the secondary housing market can fall below cost of new buildings.
Another clear trend: the market supply of housing in recent years has shifted to apartments with fewer rooms. According to the last census, the ratio of apartments by type of room in the whole housing stock in Russia is 23% -40% — 29% — 8% for 1-, 2-, 3-4 -, and three bedroom apartments respectively.
But even if buyers aimed at housing a minimum of space, to acquire housing, they are not in a hurry. The average exposure period liquid apartments over the past year increased from 30-40 days up to 100 days. The minimum discount is 10%. Simply put, if you manage to sell the house in three months and not for 10 million rubles as you wanted, but for 9, is a great success. Secondary real estate market is overstocked, and to “shake up” his will is that the decline in mortgage rates. While 14-15% per annum for the mortgage to be a stepping stone to opting for resale properties, analysts say.Related posts: