Name the following British Prime Minister has almost known with great probability they will become interior Minister Theresa may. Yet she has four opponents, but at the beginning of the election of a new conservative leader (who will lead the government) Mei is absolute favorite. What is this figure?
The political crisis in the UK began two weeks ago – after contrary to the expectations and desire of the political establishment, the country voted to secede from the European Union. The Prime Minister and the leader of the ruling conservatives, David Cameron has resigned, and immediately began the struggle for the right to become his successor. The existing procedure for the leader of the party choose party members, there are only about 150 thousand. But the candidates it offers to the faction of conservatives in the house of Commons. That is, you can choose from two approved members of Parliament candidates.
“Theresa may is careful and experienced – that’s what gives it the Premiership in a crisis situation, when larger pieces were broken from the field”
After the parliamentary elections last year, the main opposition party, the labour party, too, was chosen leader. Then thanks to the massive influx of new party members became the candidate, considered a notorious outsider and categorically not satisfied with the party elite: extremely left-wing Jeremy Corbyn. The conservatives will not allow this in the list of five candidates, all of “his people”, and the big intrigue anymore. The main events took place before the beginning of voting, when the field was, in fact, cleared for the election Theresa may. She now holds the post of interior Minister of the UK.
Last week at first refused to nominate a second person in the government, the Minister of Finance George Osborne, and then of fighting has left and the main contender for the Premiership, Boris Johnson. The former mayor of London was the most popular politician among voters-conservatives and the main agitator in the ranks of the party over withdrawal from the EU (despite the fact that the top of the party led by Cameron urged to vote in favour of EU membership). Naturally, after the defeat of Cameron, exactly who won the referendum, Johnson was seen as a future Prime Minister. And he has already started to prepare for the future Premiership, to pick a team… But the battle behind the scenes of the conservatives was swift – a few days later, Johnson refused the nomination, stating that this job is not for him.
Why Johnson withdrew from the elections? Because in the English establishment has decided that he will not be Prime Minister – Boris too untethered, frankly is configured to exit from the EU, and in General too much to say about myself. To stop Johnson was only possible at the stage of a vote in Parliament. If he moved, despite the weak support in the house of Commons, the result would be in the shortlist of two candidates to be submitted for an all-party vote. And it undoubtedly would have won. So the former mayor was cut off immediately at the entrance. He was given to understand that it is better not to be nominated (the elite did not want to create a situation in which the deputies block the nomination by the party policy).
Why Johnson agreed, and not staged a mutiny? While it is not known, but in the English political tradition there are many ways to force the character to greater tractability. Who knows what dirt could be on Oxford student Johnson – by the way, a classmate and friend of Cameron? In the public sphere the pressure on Johnson emerged only in the fact that his “stabbed in the back” another classmate, friend and partner on the campaign in favor of Breccia justice Minister Michael Gove.
Gove suddenly said that after the referendum he came to the conclusion that Boris Johnson can become that leader that the country needs. And so, although earlier he did not want to be Prime Minister and was going to help Johnson, now Gove has decided to run for Prime Minister.
It is clear that in the end Gove you lose elections and will head the government – but in the new Cabinet he will have a more important position and future prospects. In gratitude for the removal of Johnson. Which, in turn, does not remain anything, except how to support the candidacy of Deputy Minister Andrea Leeds, member of the house of Commons, also actively campaigned for Prexit.
In addition to Leeds and Hova moved even the Minister of labour and pensions Stephen Crabb and former defense Minister Liam Fox, but they have no serious support neither in Parliament, nor among the voters. In fact, an imitation of the fight will go between Gowon, Leeds and Theresa may, the interior Minister. Intra-elite consensus that it may be the next Prime Minister, reached the polls among the voters show its great advantage over the nearest rival, Govem – but you need to give the audience “the affair”.
Therefore, during the three voting – today, Thursday and next Tuesday – will be screened three of the five candidates. After each vote in the house of Commons in the list will remain at one name less, until 12 July it will be only two surnames. It will be may and Gove. Or may and Leeds – but in any case, to prevent the election Mei can only wonder. And in order to repeat last year’s “miracle Corbin” need nonconformist Corbin, and more than the system Gove and Leeds.
The only way to break the approved script is Boris Johnson – if he dumped all his “political weight” to the Cup with Leeds and arrange a massive campaign for her during the period of voting of party members (they vote by mail), and Theresa may will appear some serious dirt. But that Leeds needs to get on the ballot papers, and the discrediting of may supported by a press campaign – the combination of these two factors relates to the field of fiction.
The future of the Premiership may have already been approved and several Ministers (Minister of defense Michael Fallon announced that may is “the right man to lead the country in these difficult times”), and the press – so the path is clear.
May careful and experienced – that’s what gives it the Premiership in a crisis situation, when larger pieces were broken off. She is already 19 years in Parliament, six years in government, he held three Ministerial posts, are well known in the country. The press is already beginning to serve her as a new Margaret Thatcher (both daughters of pastors and Libra zodiac sign), although it is clear that the new “iron lady” may not be. Different character and different circumstances. But it was her careful position in the referendum she supported Cameron, but not really campaigned for the preservation of the country in the EU and will allow her to become the new Prime Minister. Because it is not associated with supporters of Breccia nor against them – that is, she has a chance to keep the party from split.
However, this would be very difficult, have already begun active work on the revision of the outcome of the referendum. There is a debate about whether the consent of the Parliament at the beginning of the withdrawal procedure. If so, it is not clear how the house of Commons, with a majority of the proponents of EU membership, will vote for Prexit. You can spend this autumn’s early parliamentary elections, especially judging by the polls they speak for the majority of voters – but so far Mae says that new elections will not be. However, when voting on Brexia faction of the conservatives will inevitably break up, and in this case to make it to 2020 will be very difficult.
Similarly, Mei says that Brakcet means Brakcet, that is, demonstrates a willingness to do the will of the voters. However, nothing in public now and can not say none of the candidates for the premiere. While may reminds us that “we must defend the city of London and the benefits that he has” – and to combine with one another not under force to anybody in the world.
To save the city for the functions of the financial and monetary center of the world have, in fact, replace Breaksit the formal Kingdom’s exit from the EU or the EU itself needs to take in a deep financial and political crisis that will allow the city to continue to maintain its leading position.
Regardless, may withdraw Britain from the EU or try to slow down this process, her Premiership would be extremely rapid. Even if it is short.Related posts: