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Saturday, December 10, 2016

Import substitution as a panacea for the acceleration of inflation


Import substitution is a reality of today’s Russian economy. And although in many areas this process is just beginning, and not always is approved, the food market has already felt the positive impact of this process.

Photo: press-service X5 Retail Group

Due to the development of production of domestic food prices are not rising, but rather falling. According to Rosstat, the value of food set that consists of staples such as milk, chicken, vegetables and other, amounted to 3740 rubles. Meanwhile, the food basket “roundabout” is estimated to be 3732 of the ruble. However, this is not the limit. If purchased in the chain stores of goods at the lowest prices, it can and does meet the amount that is just over 2 thousand rubles.

As practice shows, during the crisis people start to save. And it comes down to reducing the cost of food. Prices are rising, but not on all foods. Ahead of the season the Russian fruit and vegetables, which will significantly reduce the expenses of Russians on the necessary vitamins. Help to save money and protein foods — the Russian chicken meat and eggs. According to the analytical material of the “Index “roundabout”, these products helped to curb the rising cost of the minimum consumer basket and to keep prices in the network is lower than the national average. This statistic is supported by statistics: according to Rosstat, in may, in General, our country set value of the food has reached 3740 rubles. In particular, in Moscow the average cost of a food set made 4558 rubles, and in St. Petersburg — 4511 rubles. The prices rose slightly compared to April.

In may the national trends with dynamics of the average cost of a similar set up in a “roundabout”. The average cost of a grocery set, which is calculated by Rosstat and “roundabout” each month, in the European part of Russia and Urals in may was 3732 of the ruble. In Moscow the food set cost an average of 3967 rubles, and in St. Petersburg — 4324 rubles. It might be noted that this is only a statistical indicator to assess the level of food prices and their dynamics, and the real cost of the food basket necessary to the citizen in a month, these figures have no relationship. Set value of the food Rosstat and “roundabout” is the cost of a conventional (minimal) set of food, determined in accordance with Annex 3 to the order of Rosstat from 30.12.2014 No. 733.

If you take the ratio of the value of the food kit according to the average price of Pyaterochka and cost the same set of Rosstat for Russia, you can define that in a networked retail average prices below the national average of 0.2%, in the capital — 13%, in St. Petersburg — by 4.2%. In the analytical report presented to the retailer another indicator — the value of the food set at the lowest prices. It reflects the value of the products included in the same set, but not on weighted average prices (with that in mind, sales and the share of items in the category), and at the lowest prices shopping online. This figure cannot be compared with the data of Rosstat, but you can determine how much real food prices in the network is lower than the market average:

“Set value of the food at minimum prices “roundabout” for seven months less than the average Rosstat 1.5—1.75 times. In may for the European part of Russia and Ural it amounted to 2058 rubles, 2738 rubles for Saint-Petersburg — 2987 rubles.”

As explained in “roundabout”, the rise in prices restrained “product drivers”, which were presented on the shelves of the retail stores at prices below the national average. For example, the average prices of chicken in a “roundabout” was below the average in Russia by 10%, the price of apples is 14%, fresh milk by 14%, sugar in an average cost less 15%, peas and beans, 20%, chilled and frozen chickens — 21%, sunflower oil — by 31%, and black pepper — 42%. Thus, according to the trading network in may, these goods were worth 1% less than the previous month.

Irina Muchkaeva

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