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Thursday, October 27, 2016

9-10 years robots will be every third Earthling

In Perm recently escaped humanoid robot. Directly with the test site, where he taught movement in a confined space. However, the fugitive was soon able to find — drained his battery.

However, many futurists say will be just a few decades, and the stories are fiction, telling about how the robots enslaved the humans, will become a very likely scenario.

photo: Natalia Muslinkina

According to conservative projections, by 2025, robotic appliances will be every third. And after a decade — all. In Japan, for example, has left collectors strawberries — created robotarmy, in the fields plowed by specially trained machines. Whether still will be!

How to share the planet with intelligent machines? The discussion on this topic took place during the conference “Digital industry industrial Russia” (CIPROFLOXACIN), which was held in the city of the future Innopolis in Tatarstan.

Smart cars are ready to disconnect from the network

“Many companies demonstrate their achievements in robotics. Obviously, robots of the future will be very adapted, and I do not exclude that after 20 years instead of me on this stage will be a robot. However, instead of spectators too” — so began his lecture attended CIPROFLOXACIN is a famous American journalist and futurologist James Barratt. She made some skeptical grin, and others to think deeply. In other words, no one remained indifferent.

Barratt recently shocked the world, revealing the secrets, in his opinion, “the last invention of mankind.” Become the field of artificial intelligence that initially called us to serve. However, as from love to hate one step, and from the assistant to the any robot could easily turn to the Lord, thereby marking the end of the era of homo sapiens.

Only since 2009, development in the field of artificial intelligence in the world invested about $ 14 billion. And by 2025, investments in this area will be close to 25 trillion dollars. It is projected that by this time a third of all the works on earth will perform a robotic machine. Besides, futurists predict that everything that is connected to the mains, will be cognitive, that is, almost thinking, after 10 years. But it will take some time, and artificial intelligence will cease to depend on network connectivity. Recently, the scientist who invented the technology of recognition of various gadgets human speech, said that by 2029 will present a device which will perform over a billion calculations per second. This superintelligence will be available to everyone online. Houses, cars, appliances — soon all will have one or another intelligence.

…Whether this evolution for the future of people? In the beginning 2000‑x years the topic of ethics in the field of artificial intelligence was fashionable, now it remember less. Who controls artificial intelligence? And is it possible to control it at all? As stated by the famous physicist Stephen Hawking, artificial intelligence can be no less dangerous to humanity than nuclear weapons. Bill gates also expressed his fears on this occasion. He said that the first robots will perform for us the small job and then begin to solve our problems for us.

Baxter vs the janitors

Already today, robots have taken on many types of jobs that the person to perform difficult or just too lazy. Actively developing the market of robotic cleaners. One of the companies introduced cleaner Baxter — it costs 20 euros. Baxter can do all kinds of housework, work in three shifts. He is not tired, not sick, not sleeping, not involve pizza.

Scientists at Stanford University have created a robot-diver — soon the humanoid mechanism OceanOne will be a whole army of divers around the world. It can not only study the system in the underwater world, but repairing the underwater parts of gas pipelines. He has stereoscopic vision on the head, which passes on the land, that he finds the robot. His hands can manage at a distance. And most importantly — it does not need to be fed, he never gets sick and does not ask for higher wages.

The question arises: what soon will people do? How do we live with robots? One writer said that today the main people on the planet only because they are the most intelligent. As soon as beings superior to us in intelligence, which, no doubt, will soon become intelligent machines, we simply deposed from this throne. And we will manage.

Says Mr. Barratt, who carried out many interviews with the developers of artificial intelligence, is already invented devices and computer systems able to perform tasks that require cognitive abilities as humans, the same visual perception, the ability to recognize speech, to make decisions in difficult situations and even to translate from one language to another. “Artificial intelligence gives us the question: who are you, what are your superpowers? He can reach the goal in a variety of conditions, and most importantly — he is able to learn and even aimed at him. If the machine is to set a goal to win a chess person, she is going to achieve it. The machine can adapt to the given conditions. Mechanisms, which are able to improve the software, to put forward hypotheses, to conduct research. And the car will start to improve,” — said the journalist. He cites a recent example when the system is the “Watson” IBM won in the American version of “Who wants to be a millionaire”. The machine has a knowledge of history, knows human language, is able to solve logic problems. For example, it is easily said that for the Russian composer wrote an etude for piano (Rachmaninoff). She generates a hypothesis, conducts research, evaluates. I think if Watson and other artificial intelligence system?.. This no one knows.

It seems that soon the machines will learn all the human abilities that differentiate us from animals. Namely, the ability to learn new languages, learn new skills, swim underwater, go into space. Some experts even say that soon they will acquire all the emotions of human nature: patience, fear. “I don’t think so, says Barratt. — It is not necessary to anthropomorphize artificial intelligence. It is hardly possible to create a robot emotional washing machine. But to think about the safety it’s time.”

The ultimate goal of artificial intelligence, I am sure Barratt, is to create a machine that will be smarter than humans. “Perhaps from the point of view of engineering that is difficult. Some believe that the human brain can’t bring in the car. However, 95% of the developers with whom I communicated, said that the problem can be solved. Superintelligent machine will create an even more perfect mechanism, will follow the intellectual explosion,” said James Barratt. Of course, it will take time. Someone said that 120 years, some 45, and the most optimistic that such a mechanism will be in 2029.

Barratt says that today’s artificial intelligence systems work at the level of freshman-lawyer, and tomorrow will take our jobs. According to forecasts of futurist, in the coming years without a job will be 7 million drivers in the US — they will be replaced by unmanned vehicles. There will be no need and 5 million office workers, as well as the pharmacists, pilots, dimensions. In the known chain of fast food restaurants for 20 years, will be automated 45% of jobs; will lose sources of income to 80% of health care workers. There are quite bold predictions of futurologists: by 2035, all human labor is replaced by robotic. First job will lose low-wage category.

The Buddha in your computer

Some scientists are even talking about the need to create a new science that will help… to understand artificial intelligence. To analyze the behavior of machines is easier than the behavior of people — they do not lend themselves to emotion, do not take impulsive decisions. Scientist Eliezer Yudkowsky said artificial intelligence can not you love or hate, but you are made of atoms which it could use for something else. Head of the laboratory of cognitive robotic systems of the Innopolis University Professor Nikolaos Mavridis admits that recently participated in discussions about whether to give the robots a license to kill…

Is it possible to implement machine morality? Unlikely. Because in different countries it is different. Besides, military robots, on which today employs 56 countries of the world, morality, and does not need it. Stephen Hawking says it’s time to develop a plan for the control of artificial intelligence — otherwise he will begin to act against its creators.

Today in the development of new robotics began to lead China, Singapore and Hong Kong overthrew from its pedestal the United States. Russia success is a little bit, but she starts to catch up, pushing new developments of robotic systems in the areas of education, rescue operations, space technology, and service… “In recent years we have began to appear helpful robots. For example, actually for injury rehabilitation, for people with disorders of the musculoskeletal functions. Today in Russia every year 1,000 graduates receive a diploma in robotics; officially this direction in the country engaged in 160 organizations. In the world — 3 thousand. However, industrial robotics, we are hopelessly behind,” says the head of the robotics center albert Efimov. Mr. Efimov sure that the fear of artificial intelligence is extremely exaggerated: “It is the same as the fear of overpopulation of Mars. A when the time will start to be afraid of technology, is still very, very far. Yes, in the future, the chip can be inserted at all. However, all of this can be hack”.

— Today there is a advanced smart control systems robotics. They allow the vehicles — land, air, sea — to solve many problems without human intervention. Moreover, these machines can act either alone or in a group. They are able to share information, to select items, replace the robots that have failed automatically return to base, — said the Deputy Director of the United instrument manufacturing Corporation Sergey Skokov. — However, the algorithms are constructed in such a way that critical decisions are always made by the operator. Only man can understand and grasp all the nuances of the situation and to choose the correct action. For example, to confirm the production of electronic jamming, destruction of selected targets, etc. Is a guarantee that the situation will always be controlled.

— Of course, if the robot is some 20 thousand dollars, it’s much cheaper than hiring people, ” admits the CEO of a manufacturer of computer equipment Andrey Filatov. And it is predicted that within 5-7 years all the trucks in the world will be unmanned, it is safer. Although just recently in California unmanned vehicle “Google” was an accident, and now think, who to judge… We are working with Japanese partners have developed a robot, which is now installed in all offices of one of the largest banks in the country — it is all intellectual work with clients, gives advice, acts as a teller. Today humanity lives in a gigantic flow of information, smartphones and other devices cease to hold it, develop cloud technology. In 2016 all network traffic in the world will reach 10 in a 16-th degree zettabytes, and when the Internet of things will enter our lives, the information will be measured already brontobyte. This is the same order of magnitude, as if to calculate how many minutes have passed since the birth of Christ. It is therefore necessary to develop supercomputing technology, which will help us to analyze the data. Without robots, our future is unthinkable…

In other words, the main problem of humanity is not to drown in the sea of information surrounding us, it is here that we need artificial intelligence that will think for us…

— Can robots be creative? Perhaps they will be able to create works of art. And if they have thoughts, feelings? It all depends on what we mean by this concept. We can think of is that the car is able to feel, but I think it is not. In General, whether there is a Buddha in the computer — the answer to this question depends on the person, — says Professor Mavridis.

The developers of robotics suggest not to forget how much useful brought it to the world. It is because it has become possible to perform many operations in medicine; have monitors in place to track the condition of patients. Here you will learn how to create new organs using 3D bioprinting to create nanolekarstv.

By the way, futurists predict that in 2050, the people themselves will be half of artificial organs. Maybe then this issue will become generally irrelevant?..

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