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Saturday, October 22, 2016

Poroshenko will go for a second term, Yeltsin’s rating

Petro Poroshenko has already decided whether he will go for a second term will go, in spite of the squandered credibility and relatively low ratings. Optimism and Poroshenko, and his team, in principle, does not hold, but now the Ukrainian political class is suited to the situation, when to wait for a good is simply naive.

The head of the faction Block Petro Poroshenko in the Verkhovna Rada Ihor Hryniv made a statement that acting President of Ukraine will go for a second term. Made this statement was in an extensive interview to the journalist of “the Ukrainian truth” Pavel Sheremet, previously worked in Belarus and Russia.

“Ukraine now has a first League, in which, in particular, includes the comedian, singer and Governor “

Gryn is not very well known politician, neither in Ukraine nor in Russia. Starting with such an exotic job as a Secretary for the national revival of the Lviv Committee of the Komsomol, he made a career consultant and from the shadows came only after the former head of the faction PPO Yuriy Lutsenko was a violation of the law appointed by the attorney General of the country.

“Is there any doubt that Peter will go for a second term?” – asks himself a rhetorical question Hryniv. And then responds: “In my understanding, there is no doubt. The President will go for a second term, and it’s scary and a big responsibility.”

“Yushchenko’s gone, too”, – reminds him of the interviewer (and gained 5% – a record among current presidents, nominated for a second term – approx. OPINION). “No, Yushchenko was confident that the nation is obliged to give him a second term. He believed that he deserved it, ” retorted Hryniv. – Peter A. understands that in order to become President for a second term, it is necessary to achieve extraordinary results. Decreased the credibility of the government, became more claims to power, often raise questions about the accountability of the government…”.

Further Sheremet and Hryniv argue about who could compete with Poroshenko. In recognition of the Deputy-the political strategist, he makes monthly measurements”, and includes even such exotic candidates like comedian Vladimir Zelensky (the actor starred in Russian films, and the money lists in support of the punitive operation in the Donbass – approx. OPINION).

According to Grineva, indicators Zelensky “approximately such as Svyatoslav Vakarchuk (the leader of the group “Okean Elzy”), like Mikheil Saakashvili.” “That is higher than the President?” – ironically Sheremet. Gryn does not support the joke and responds seriously. According to him, Ukraine now has the first League, in which, in particular, includes the above-mentioned comedian, singer and Governor. Is the highest to which he attributed the current President and ex-Prime Minister Yulia Tymoshenko and the mayor of Lviv, leader of the party “Samopomich” Andriy Sadovy.

The head of the BPP acknowledges that the difference between the first and the second division not so great: “the League has lowered its level, it’s true. If you were previously a big gap from the first League, now getting into the higher League from the first League and Vice versa – it’s a shorter process. Why am I talking about non-system choice? Before new, non-systemic politics to make the big leagues would be worth the extra effort”.

Nadezhda Savchenko, regularly making shocking Ukrainian establishment statements, in the opinion Grineva has no chance of becoming President: “Savchenko could be, if we had moved large steps in the opposite direction. But while she’s moving…” – the Deputy interrupted himself, and more to the topic pardoned by Vladimir Putin navodchitsy the sides will not be returned. And go to the topic of oligarchs, which does not lose in Ukraine, the relevance of the second decade, in spite of all revolution.

So close to Poroshenko a person believes that the current country’s President in 2019 will go for a second term – even though his rating at the moment, to put it mildly, is low. Data published polls do not confirm the announced Prinivil information about what the current head of state allegedly included in the “top League”.

According sociologicheski group “Rating”, among Ukrainians politicians like the mayor of Lviv Andriy Sadovy – its total support is 35%. Mikhail Saakashvili is satisfied, 34% of Ukrainians, Oleg Lyashko – 23%. Ex-economy Minister aivaras Abromavicius has support at 22%, Yulia Tymoshenko – 21%, Ukraine’s President Petro Poroshenko and Kyiv mayor Vitali Klitschko – 19%, former leader of the “Right sector” Dmitry Yarosh – 18%, former speaker of the Parliament Volodymyr Groysman – 15%.

This survey was conducted in March. According to more recent, conducted by a team of “Socis” in June Hope Savchenko leads the list of possible presidential candidates. It was supported by 11.9% of respondents, and Poroshenko – only 6.4%. Yulia Tymoshenko, according to this poll, is rated almost the same as the incumbent President at 6.5%.

Finally, the “Social perspective” published the following data: in the first place Tymoshenko from 11.6% in the second – Poroshenko from 11.2% in the third – Vadim Rabinovich from 7.2%.

In Ukraine opinion polls, as a rule, differ greatly in performance and depend on who pays for a specific study. However, they all predicted victory for Poroshenko in 2014, and is now as unanimously take it from among the leaders of public opinion, albeit with different results.

However, you can elect the President, whose rating at the time of the start of the campaign does not exceed 6% – the citizens of Russia know this very well. The situation in our country in 1996, by the way, not much different from the current situation in Ukraine: President about whom there are rumors that he is immoderate in the consumption of alcohol, the power of the oligarchs and the armed conflict in one region. However, there were major difference – in Russia the 90s never occurred to me to ban the Communists, which was the second most popular political force in the country. In Ukraine, the Communist party has never had such influence, however, its activities are banned – who knows what.

But the thing that paid attention to Sheremet, and Gryn – what makes anyone think that the Ukrainian President will modify the rest of his powers? Yes, the apocalyptic predictions of the beginning of 2014, predicted Ukraine instant collapse, did not come true – the inertia and jingoistic rise has helped to strengthen the rapidly failing state. But the positive forecasts for Ukraine for the coming years, there is still no Europe to do their business in the US elections, and Russia will not allow to hold in the Donbas small victorious war, not to mention forever lost Kiev to the Crimea.

So it’s safe to say that the election of the next President of Ukraine will be held on time and that the incumbent be allowed to participate in them, is either an eternal optimist or a man, obviously knows what he’s wishful thinking.

In 2014, Poroshenko was able to take advantage of the situation and become the first President of Ukraine, who won the first round. But so far, the situation is the fact that the version of Viktor Yushchenko, who managed after the first Maidan to stay in power throughout the period and with the shame of losing re-election, will be for the owner of “Roshen” is perfect. Option had fled the country, Viktor Yanukovych – not bad. But there are options and much more sad. As for Poroshenko and the Ukraine.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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