Immediately after the referendum on the British exit from the EU (Brexit) on which the majority of British people voted in favor of the “disconnect”, became an obvious split within the United Kingdom. Scotland and Northern Ireland said that they see their future in the European Union. To stay in the European Union wished and Gibraltar. How might the separation of these territories from the UK, the “MK” was told by the associate Professor of the Department of integration processes, MGIMO Alexander Tevdoy-Burmuli.
– Is it possible to separate Northern Ireland, Scotland and Gibraltar from the UK?
– All three territories the odds are different. The first thing to say about Scotland. Until we see some steps of the Scottish leadership and reciprocal steps by the EU, which welcomed this way. In this case, all will be solved in a legitimate way. First you need to decide on the referendum and the referendum need to win. It is possible that it will succeed. But so far as we know, according to the latest polls, the advocates of secession of Scotland from the EU has not gained 50%. Perhaps the situation after Brexit will seriously change. Talking about it very much. Here such option exists, but the EU will do its utmost to mask their role in it, because it’s a very vulnerable position: he does not want to incur the reproaches of the UK and other countries in that it provokes a split in the UK.
In addition, there is the position of Spain. She already declared that categorically against the admission of Scotland if it happens. For obvious reasons: Spain has its own headache in the form of Catalonia and the Basque Country. In this sense, is viewed not quite clear the situation. It is clear that the Scots will take some steps in this direction, but how successfully and in what terms is hard to say. I think that this will become clear in the next year and a half.
With regard to Northern Ireland, here the base is the same: there is a limiter in the form of Spain. There is an additional factor in the fact that there was virtually no borders between Ireland and Northern Ireland. Now these borders appear. And the story itself with Northern Ireland is much more hot, weeks Scottish. Here the situation is even more nervous. Again, given that Northern Irish Catholics are still in the minority, to achieve a result, even if a referendum is held, fifty plus one vote in the referendum on secession of Northern Ireland from the UK, while we do not see. As for Gibraltar, it is not an Autonomous territory. He has a slightly different status. It is in this sense much farther away from potential withdrawal from the EU.
– If the Northern Ireland and the Scots remain part of the UK, they can affect the running process out of the EU?
They can’t beat. They can’t say: no, you will not work, because the decision was made General of the British referendum. But since it will be a long process of negotiation – at least two years, then theoretically no one can say which way will the relationship between Britain and the EU, it is not Switzerland’s status, not the status of Norway, in principle, the Scots if they remain in the EU, will do everything that the UK remains more closely tied to the EU, but to be honest, I have a feeling that they will try to use a Brexit in order to get by.
– Brexit influenced the growth of nationalist sentiment in Britain?
It appears so, Yes. A significant rise in sentiment antiemigrantskoy, and even against immigrants within the EU, for example, against the poles. Register anti-Polish slogans. On the other hand, it is clear that Scottish and Irish nationalism was further fuelled because they have hope for a way out. While some trends in this respect. I don’t think they are overly over-the-top.
Is there any chance that groups that threatened the security of Britain in the recent past, again it will be released?
Refers to the IRA (Irish Republican army – “MK”)? It is not excluded. If Northern Ireland is a clear desire to leave and the British will fend him off with weak positions, i.e. they will not have sufficient tools to fend off and in order to reinforce this position, it is possible that Northern Irish terrorism is again raising its head. Then you need some combination of circumstances. On the one hand, the British statehood should become sufficiently loose to IRA again. On the other hand, it should remain strong enough to prevent the peaceful secession of Northern Ireland. It’s an annoying combination will provoke the growth of terrorism. It always happens in such ambiguous situations – when it is not known, it is possible to achieve something by force or not, but there is hope. That’s when terrorism gets out.
Watch the video on “Escape from Europe: the British voted to secede from the EU”
The subjects of the United Kingdom of great Britain and Northern Ireland decided to withdraw from the European Union in a referendum held on the initiative of British Prime Minister David Cameron. This political event caused a great resonance in the world. Right-wing parties in several EU countries have already announced their intention to hold a series of similar events at home.
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