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Sunday, March 11, 2018

The battle of Aleppo has exposed the differences between Russia and its allies

After the onset of the Syrian troops in Raqqa choked, fighting has moved to other parts of the country. Mostly at Aleppo, where the clashes continue for a minute. And there suddenly apparent contradiction between the government army and its allies, primarily Russia and Iran.

The government of the Syrian Arab army (SAA) – the main military instrument of power, whose actions are supported by the Russian VKS, intelligence, advisers and auxiliary units. With the General headquarters of the CAA in Damascus, as well as its representatives and senior officers on the ground coordinates the Russian base Hamim.

“If you do not arrive on the great white steel bird with a red star on the wings, some already and the shutter is distorted”

It is, however, needless to say, because legally the Russian troops are in Syria at the invitation of the government, and its powers are regulated by interstate agreements and treaties. Finally, the system of unity of command should work even in the Arab world, therefore, the CAA and its staff – the highest military court of Damascus, which is planning military operations against the jihadists. How and how successfully it does it is another question. It is important that the Syrian General staff should communicate with all your allies, building a hierarchy of military command and bring the orders before the execution, while the Russian VKS – a tool of international assistance, not a political argument. And it was in this area in the past week and a half has developed an apparent misunderstanding that is particularly evident in the battles in Aleppo and around.

In the last eight days the Russian VKS repeatedly attacked areas North of Aleppo. Their participation played a key role in the promotion of parts of the CAA (first assault division “Tigers”) in the area of agricultural lands in Mull, which are “dzhebhat an-Nusra and Harakat Noureddine al-Zinki”. Russian bombers attacked all reinforcements jihadists before they had time to reach the positions on the front line. Parallel to the bombing was subjected to objects and positions of the Islamists in the mountains of Hanazat and Badenskoj the valley, the aircraft made up to 30 sorties a day.

Against this background, the 4th mechanized division of the government forces on Wednesday morning launched a new offensive in the Northern sector – in the city of Aleppo. The preliminary goal was named the area of industrial development between the neighborhoods of al-Khalidiya and al-Miramon. Al-Khalid is now almost stripped, but al-Linamon still controlled by the jihadists (and for quite a long time).

Promotion of CAA is slow. In addition, this area does not have any key landmark points, the seizure of which would be a propaganda attractive. There is a heavy routine of war, which no one likes. Same division “Tiger” that are considered elite (it is commanded by the well-known Syrian Colonel Suhail Hassan) do not move until the Russian bombers don’t get my position in front of her. Even the message on break the first line of defense jihadists in Mallaha late for two days, and any data about the success of the offensive is not so far. And this in an Arab country where good news is usually ahead of the event itself.

Local sources directly attribute this to the fact that on the morning of 30 June, the Russian planes are not up in the air. At all. After eight days of intense raids on positions of the jihadists to the North of Aleppo VKS took a timeout, and the occurrence of the CAA immediately stopped. Apparently, coffee.

Who is friends with whom and the war in Syria and Iraq Even more complicated situation to South of Aleppo, where there is a war of all against all. The forces of the so-called moderate opposition periodically try to discourage LIH* a few blocks and gardens to the South and southwest of the city, and jihadists in response, attempting to move in a westerly direction. In this area large Iranian presence – in the form of so-called volunteer units, and officially present in the country units of the Islamic revolutionary guard Corps. The Shiite militia formally independently, but focuses more on Iranian generals, rather than on the General staff in Damascus.

The Iranian and Shiite parts to the South of Aleppo does not receive air support videoconferencing. Deprived of air support and the Kurds, surrounded Manbij. The Americans reach them very rarely and mainly military objectives and with the transport (that is, “the donkey work” dropping loads, afraid to drop to dangerous heights because of the suspicion of the appearance of ISIS American MANPADS). As a result, the Shiites and the Kurds began to bear large losses, which led to their dramatic reactions.

In the Russian VKS was accused of almost cheating, but is dominated by the idea that “Russia has fallen into the trap of the United States” by agreeing to divide the zones of responsibility for air and continue the endless process of separating the “clean” opposition from the “unclean”. Special irritation of the allies calls “peacemaking” – the conclusion of local agreements on a ceasefire with specific groups that are not seen in connection with ISIS, or with the mukhtars (aldermen mayors) of individual settlements and local militia commanders.

This wave of information until that comes exclusively from Tehran and a Union of Beirut. Other Shiite allies of Damascus (e.g., Hezbollah, quite independent in terms of making tactical military decisions) are involved in local operations in other regions of the country without poisoning yourself consciousness conspiracy like structures. So, on the Syrian-Lebanese border on Thursday morning, government troops backed by Hezbollah destroyed a few water pumps that supplied drinking water to the base of ISIS in the region Jarod Dzharadzhir in the mountains kalamun. Simultaneously, the SAA and Hezbollah began a military operation against terrorists in these mountains, as the days part of the ISIS attacked the Lebanese town of Garud Ka and there perpetrate pogroms neaniskoi of the population. While the SAA and Hizbollah emphasize that all necessary intelligence information as the camp of ISIS and the location of water pumps they got from “Russian advisers”. A similar situation prevails in the Golan heights.

From the point of view of the circles close to Iran, Russia should step it up” in Aleppo, intensifying the bombing of the positions of the jihadists and secular opposition South of the city. And the point here is not that Russian air strikes is not enough. The fact that they are consistent with the Damascus, and aims to support actions in the first place the government troops, not the Persians or the PMC. The recent abandonment of the front near Raqqa overrated “Eagles of the desert”, by the way, another argument in favour of dealing only with the General staff in Damascus, not with a dozen of small centers of influence.

The Shiites and the PMC nevertheless continue to appeal to Moscow, openly demanding direct support. The more the losses are the Persians to the South of Aleppo and Kurds around Manuja, the more offensive it becomes the style which use “talking heads” in Tehran and Beirut. Today’s trend is something like “putinslil” in Persian language, and the lack of flight of bombers with Hamim weather conditions is regarded almost as a betrayal.

It is already rather annoying. The Russian operation in Syria lasts already almost 9 months, during this time, there has been remarkable political and military successes. But some participants are so accustomed to the Russian aid and aviation, reconnaissance, and humanitarian – that have ceased to feel without her. If you do not arrive on great white a steel bird with a red star on the wings, some already and the shutter is distorted.

Russia lacks this is not the first time, but in the East this parasite on blue-eyed and reliable ally sometimes takes extreme forms. Even the mental self-sufficient Kurds entrenched in the mountains around Manuja without any movement forward, gave the initiative to the ISIL, and now feebly kicking winded in a bag of jihadists who have nowhere to go, so they rod for trouble. Hence the extensive use of suicide bombers to break through the first line of defense and destruction of fortifications. In this respect, particularly revealing the death of 15 June, the Russian soldier Andrei Timoshenkova, who took the brunt of the suicide bomber tried to attack a humanitarian convoy in HOMS province. A similar attack on the position of the Persians, Shiites, Kurds, and various PMCs end with the destruction of the front and large losses, as happened, for example, at a recent counter-offensive of ISIS at Raqqa.

The blame for this “misunderstanding” partly rests on Damascus, which is really “privatized” the Russian military help and no one wants to share. To change the mentality of the Persians and other allies will not succeed, he, too, is part of the game, but the General staff of the CAA should attend to more precise planning of the operations of a strategic nature. To identify priorities and explain them to all allies seedlings to its proper perch. But if a toss up between several strategic objectives simultaneously will continue, it could reach the open sabotage.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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