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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Russia and Turkey have resumed holiday romance

Lovers ‘ tiffs are harmless. More recently, there was a strong belief that this saying may refer to anything, but not to the Russian-Turkish relations. Life, as usual, was richer than our ideas about it. The press service did not report what words goodbye Putin and Erdogan after the first seven months of the phone conversation. But more came another Russian proverb: “let bygones – an eye out”.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Oblivion, as you might guess, be the fact of the destruction of 24 November 2015 Turkish air force Russian SU-24 that attacked the positions of Islamists in the Syrian border area.

Moscow then demanded that Ankara apology and monetary compensation, and not waiting, introduced an extensive package of economic sanctions, one of which was the restrictive measures for the Turkish resorts of Russian tourists.

And now, as the press service of the Russian President on the results of talks between the two presidents, the relations between Russia and Turkey recovered almost to pre-crisis levels.

Your thoughts about the sudden warming of Turkish-Russian relations with “MK” shared the chief editor of the magazine “Russia in global Affairs, Chairman of Presidium of the Council on foreign and defense policy Fyodor Lukyanov.

– Fyodor, what, in your opinion, explains the dramatic changes in the positions of the two countries?

– Moscow allows you to do the fact that Erdogan has practically fulfilled the conditions that Russia he publicly put forward. Apologized. It was quite unexpected, but it happened. Despite the small trade about the wording.

Well, with regard to compensation for the downed plane, the question is not quite clear…

– From the very beginning it was clear that compensation will be subject to separate bargaining. We will, first, to negotiate the amount, and second about who is paying: the government or the family of the deceased pilot.

But, judging by the fact that the conversation between the two presidents, scheduled to meet, said about the need for the abolition of restrictive measures, the Kremlin hopes that this issue will be resolved. In General, Russia received some satisfaction.

But, of course, not only that. I think no one in Moscow has no illusions about Erdogan. However, Turkey is a very important player in the immediate vicinity of Russia and from the Russian sphere of interest. The scale of damage that she can, if he wants to put Russia, is large enough. Have openly hostile relations with the country, a very influential where we are quite vulnerable – it is highly undesirable to us.

– What causes the Turkey to move closer to Russia?

– This one is harder. We don’t know all the reasons, which forced Erdogan to make such an unexpected move. Of course, the role played by the economic damage that Turkey has suffered. First of all, tourism.

In addition, I think, at some point in Ankara sober assessment of the results of Turkish foreign policy in recent years. Turkey quarreled with virtually all, she did not have any positive neighbour, durable partner.

Erdogan is a man impulsive, but overall pragmatic, prudent and understand that it is time to radically change. Hence the reconciliation with Israel, hence the desire to come to terms with Russia.

– It seems that Moscow and Ankara are very much in a hurry to restore the relationship. Than can be caused by the hurry?

– Haste is, in my opinion, due to the fact that the situation of this conflict is unnatural. The country of this caliber and so influential in neighboring areas should have communication channels, the power of communication. If not, then it’s just dangerous. Especially when you consider that we are talking about the most prosperous part of the world – the middle East, the Caucasus, South-Eastern Europe.

We don’t know that there was in the conversation Putin and Erdogan the Syrian component, but I would not rule that out. Nothing good in Syria: the political process is not progressing in the military too, not all thank God… in short, perhaps the intuition told Putin and Erdogan that one should not delay the restoration of relations.

In this hustle and bustle seems to have forgotten that the official reason for the introduction of restrictive measures on the admission of Turkey our tourists was named security issues. On the background of another terrorist attack in Istanbul the removal of restrictions looks weird…

Yeah, it looks weird. The intention to remove the restrictions announced the day after the bloody terrorist attack in Istanbul, and directed at travelers. Risks for tourists are really great. And suddenly it turns out that this is not important. Ergodan promised to provide security – and we believed him at once. But, as often happens, the prevailing public interest.

Read the opinions of other experts about the future of relations of Russia and Turkey

Relations between Russia and Turkey. Chronicle of events

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