President Vladimir Putin signed a decree on the renewal of the food embargo. Russian counter-sanctions will be in effect until 31 December 2017. Earlier, German Chancellor Angela Merkel said on the need to extend anti-Russian sanctions. What will the intransigence of the parties, “MK” asked the experts.
photo: Natalia Gubernatorova
Timur Nigmatullin, a financial analyst of “Finam” believes that “other things being equal, the extension of the embargo will have a moderate proinflationary effect and will add to the annual inflation rate of somewhere around 0.1 to 0.2 percentage points against year-end potreblenia may be about 6,5-7%. At the same time, it will support agriculture, which will grow faster than other sectors.”
Nikita Isaev, the Director of the Institute of contemporary economy, believes that the extension of retaliatory sanctions – it is a natural decision: “this decision was taken in response to the extension of sanctions by the EU. We were the first to impose sanctions, and should not be the first to cancel them, especially against the background that the extension of sanctions from the West is used quite ridiculous excuses like the mandatory implementation of the Minsk agreements, which Russia does not appear. To the Russian market was open access, we need European leaders to reconsider their policies and start listening to the demands of his own people and the business community.
From the point of view of influence on the Russian economy, the barrage of penalties is twofold: on the one hand, the absence of imported products in stores reduce competition, hindering the development of the quality of domestic products, on the other hand, allows to increase their share. In the last year, it was observed increased activity of foreign investors in agriculture, including global leaders in agro-industrial complex. Now it is more profitable to develop production in Russia. But restrictions on imports – a dangerous tool that can lead to long-term stagnation in many industries. Yes, quantitative growth is good, but gradually will need to go and quality”.
– The Russian food embargo has been in place for two years, and, as you can see, this time was not enough for Western “partners” have changed their approach to relations with Russia, – says Anna Bodrov, senior analyst at Alpari. – Maintaining sanctions, including Russian retaliatory food embargo, just leave it as is. And we have now a very positive picture: the flow of imports to Russia dropped sharply, and the domestic market stabilized and have learned to function in new realities. It is very important that the import substitution program has pulled in record levels of domestic agriculture and food industry. Thus, according to Rosstat, in March 2016, the food industry showed an increase of 3.7% by March 2015, while agriculture grew by 3%. Hence the requests of the farmers to the President of Russia during “hot line” for as long as possible to keep the Russian food embargo for Europe that competitors are not returned in a niche already occupied by domestic producers. Sanctions, of course, support the restructuring of the Russian economy and gradually wean us from the idea that Western capital will flood into the country and we’ll be fine. It is quite obvious that on the background of a new wave of sanctions restrictions in Russia there will be no stress, no drastic progress in the economy. Everything will be pretty smooth. Thus, contrary to expectations, no new stresses would not be and our Western partners. Unpleasant surprises are worth waiting for, only when there will be a partial lifting of sanctions and the lifting of the embargo. Then the Russian manufacturers will have to work hard in the field after working in almost sterile conditions. Farmers compared to other sectors of production are in a privileged position: the state has a program of subsidizing agricultural producers in the regions with special conditions for the purchase of agricultural machinery and equipment, the regional authorities are willing to go to meet real producers.
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