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Saturday, December 3, 2016

The opposition has gone in all directions


Russian non-systemic opposition this year finally got a chance to prove themselves at the Federal level. The door to politics, which for many years was knocking on the leaders of the protests on Bolotnaya finally swung open. However, to cross the coveted 5-percent threshold in the Duma elections, the opposition, apparently, will not be able to win them all is clearly not enough cohesion.

Election circumstances for vnesistemschikov the most favorable. The Kremlin loosened the nuts, promising for the sake of openness and legitimacy of the elections to prevent them everyone. Administrative resource is muted, and the head of the CEC has put the former “ombudsmans” loyal to the liberal minority Ella Pamfilova. It would seem — that they are fair elections, come and win!

But no. Never before has the Russian opposition were not so divided, as three months before crucial elections to the Duma. A United front in the Democratic coalition, which last year included many small parties and politicians of the liberal persuasion, departed this life in April. Then from there with scandal left Alexei Navalny, Vladimir Milov, and several of their colleagues, which significantly weakened the non-systemic camp.

Other attempts of the opposition to join forces before the elections also failed. Talks of the “Yabloko” Grigory Yavlinsky and Parnas Mikhail Kasyanov on this subject was conducted, but to no avail – the party clearly did not intend to share the success (and power) with each other. As a result, elections to the state Duma non-systemic opposition is three separate columns, consisting of Yabloko, Parnas, and groups of candidates supported by the “Open Russia” Mikhail Khodorkovsky.

Who of them can really qualify for Duma seats?

Most of all, the chances of Yabloko – the party did not miss even a single one of the elections to the state Duma, having accumulated a huge experience of participation in election campaigns. The party of Yavlinsky, has long developed its nuclear electorate, due to which Apple consistently gain at least 3-4% of the vote across the country.

In addition, “Yabloko” managed to strengthen their ranks by attracting well-known politicians — extruded from Parnas Vladimir Ryzhkov, a former spravedlivorossov Dmitry Gudkov, as well as the former mayor of Petrozavodsk Galina Chisinau. And it is possible that this list will be joined by politicians from the parliamentary parties, which have no place in the list of “native” movements. It is based on such a successful recruitment party holds its Congress only at the end of this week, July 1-3.

The former head of Yukos Mikhail Khodorkovsky promotes 19 candidates to the state Duma, and 5 — to the Legislative Assembly in St. Petersburg. However, prominent politicians in the “Khodorkovsky list” no in addition to well-known opposition blogers Maria Baronova, the names of the other will not say anything to the average voter. So, all this is actually impassable candidates, though known in narrow circles.

Still PARNAS, who came to the election in a very disassembled state. The party is mired in scandal and infighting. Deputy Chairman of the party Ilya Yashin open conflict with the party leader and his mistress Natalia Pelevine, and the party has matured real split, which threatens to take shape already at its pre-election Congress on July 2-3. Now Kasyanov hardly control the situation inside the Parnas, and may at any time to let her out of his hands.

Complete failure to complete the procedure of the primaries, the results of which PARNASSOS was to form its list in the state Duma. And it’s not that Internet voting had to be stopped after the leak of users data. Just 7 thousand votes in the primaries (of which half were bots) for parties with Federal ambitions is a shame.

In addition, the results of the voting by the leaders of the list were… the nationalists. For example, blogger Vyacheslav Maltsev, as well as being in jail the leader of the “Russian” Alexander Belov (Potkin). This aroused the indignation of the rest of Penacova, and they can understand liberal ideals, which plays a considerable role in tolerance, bad tally with the outright anti-Semitism the newly minted associates.

Everything is bad and electoral prospects. Kasyanov likes to tell, that the opposition can support up to 20% of the population of large cities and at the Federal level, the figure is about 10% of the vote. That’s just practice these words is not confirmed: according to VTSIOM polls, in the elections for the PARNASSUS ready to give their votes to only 1% of respondents.

Against this background, the participation of Parnas in the Duma campaign, he sought turns out to be questionable. A split in the party, serious disapproval of its leader and the lack of real support among the population puts Kasyanov facing a difficult choice. Or fix their political impotence, gaining at best 1-2% of the vote, or try to “bounce”, starring under some pretext from the race.

Last option is, oddly enough, will be on hand all. Kasyanov will again be able to talk to Western journalists about the “unprecedented pressure from the authorities, while maintaining a reputation as a promising, but who was not admitted to the elections policy. “Apple” with pleasure will help the electorate of Parnassus, which will vote for the closest to the spirit of the party and Yavlinsky will add much-needed interest. The Bulk will be a new argument against competitor Kasyanov, who practically single-handedly killed a long-awaited speech of the opposition at the Federal level. But Khodorkovsky will not have to co-Finance the election campaign of the party, as he agreed in exchange for the nomination of candidates in single-mandate candidates of the “Open Russia” on behalf of Parnassus.

In short, Kasyanov will be happy to eat — and the first in the queue here are his closest associates. We have to admit that while the principle of “every man for himself” is not passed, the liberal opposition will remain non-systemic. And the Kremlin, as it turns out, there is absolutely nothing to do with it.

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