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Monday, October 24, 2016

Ukraine gives the appearance of solving the problem of shortage of electricity

The head of Ministry of Ukraine refutes the statements of his Deputy and assured that there is no shortage of electricity. “We work, and do not chew snot,” says the Minister. And that means that the emergency aid from Russia, which has already been mentioned, Ukraine is not needed. Whether so it actually?

The power system of Ukraine does not lack capacity and does not require the supply of electricity from Russia, stated Minister of energy and coal industry Igor Nasalik.

“If you yourself admit the problem and ask people to reduce consumption, and then come out and say that everything is fine, then why are you asking?”

“When the Lord relish the situation here-here will collapse, people in the energy industry work. No black outs, no “all is lost” will not take place. The legacy left is difficult, but two months we work, and do not chew snot. So today we have minus 2 thousand megawatts (as predicted at the beginning of the summer period), plus 2.2 million, oil-gas blocks do not run in annual aid from Russia does not need,” wrote Nasalik in Facebook.

The Minister looks strange. It looks like an attempt to hide problems in the energy balance of Ukraine. Because there are many facts which say the opposite – that is the real threat to serious problems with energy.

Words Kasalika directly contradict the fact that literally on Friday said his own Deputy. Was officially diagnosed with the critical level of reserves of anthracite and the growth of electricity consumption by the population due to the hot weather (as a consequence of the massive use of air conditioners and intensive irrigation of agricultural land). Plus in repairs is a number of nuclear power plants.

To cover the deficit of energy “Ukrenergo” gave the order to resume electricity generation at CHPP-6 and increase the generation at CHPP-5 in Kyiv. In the emergency order were involved in oil-gas blocks.

“I have completely different information compared to the one that says Nasalik, – the member of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of energy strategies (Ukraine) Yuri Korolchuk. – The deficit in the power system of Ukraine is approaching 2,000 MW. Given the long weekend June 25-28 at the holiday Constitution day of Ukraine, we can expect further growth to electricity shortages. As a result, this can lead to problems with the supply of electricity, rolling blackouts and accidents on the network”.

Cause already become annual, with the 2014 issues of electricity production in the summer is a shortage of coal. Since June, the supply of coal from the DNI and LC actually stopped. In this overlap repair of the local nuclear power plant and thermal power plants and hot weather, which provokes a surge of demand for electricity.

Nuclear power plants cannot help in this situation, where the production of electricity is reduced. “The next energy crisis showed that nuclear power plants cannot operate in the mode of maneuvering,” says Korolchuk. The ability to manually establish this mechanism last year and a half and bet the Ukrainian authorities. But it turned out so quickly it is impossible – we need investment and at least two years.

Most surprisingly, the Ministry of energy of Ukraine not only confessed to the shortage of electricity, but asked the public and the industry to consume less electricity in connection with such problems. Moreover, if the public authorities appealed publicly, the industry unofficially ordered to reduce consumption, says Korolchuk. According to him, industrial enterprises were ordered to consume in the morning and evening peak hours is 30% less electricity. “Thus the Ukrainian authorities to create the appearance that the energy shortage as if there is” – said Ukrainian expert. Perhaps this is why the energy is not there, he makes an assumption.

When Nasalik tells about the surplus capacity, perhaps he meant that in the country there are still ready thermal blocks that can be connected, trying to understand the logic of the Minister is the expert. But coal on them anyway. “At some stations the coal is imported on a bit, it stays for a day or two, some for a week or two. It is very small,” – says the newspaper VIEW Yuri Korolchuk. The problems with coal reserves, according to him, there are at Krivoy Rog, Lugansk, Dnieper Slavic and TES.

Hope again on Russia

Surprised by the statement of the Ukrainian foreign Minister that Ukraine needs energy supplies from Russia. This is clearly a response to the message of the newspaper “Kommersant” with reference to “System operator UES” (Manager of the unified energy system of Russia) that Ukraine has asked Russia to supply 600 MW of electricity in the mode of technical assistance. And, for the electric power, Kiev will have to pay three times more than he would, if extended commercial contract with “inter RAO” in the year 2016, say the sources.

While we can talk about a few days of imports of Russian electricity, reports the publication. How long Kiev will have to buy Russian energy, it is difficult to say. The last time the export of electricity to Ukraine in this regime carried out “a year ago”. Ukraine bought energy due to lack of coal for thermal power plants last July, the newspaper notes.

According to Korolchuk, as the Wednesday-Thursday the flow of electricity from Russia has already reached 1000 MW in peak hours. “In fact, it is import, which is called the flow. Simply no contract, but still private agreements, which govern this assistance”, – said the expert.

“Actually it’s not even technical, and emergency assistance, and on it the price is always higher. In the same agreement between RAO UES and Ukraine), which was valid until the end of last year, provided one price for the planned import, different price of Express delivery (when in a day or two warning about the required flow, for example, in case of failure of the unit), and the highest price reached 2.5 UAH per kilowatt was on the emergency help when right now we have something has happened” – says Korolchuk.

By the end of 2015 Ukraine has reached the energy balance, albeit fragile, through the establishment deliveries of coal from the Donbass and because of a sharp drop in demand with the downturn in the economy and industrial production. Therefore, Kiev has decided to stop importing electricity from Russia, which had previously been attached to the commitments of Ukraine to sell electricity to the Crimea.

After the energy embargo, and then gained a complete energy independence of Crimea from Ukraine to Russia, the Treaty has lost its relevance. Ukraine has decided that the provision of electricity in the country will be fine. Appears unable to cope.

The problem can’t solve two years

Natalika assurances that the authorities are working on the problem “does not chew snot” and also the fact that he’s only two months in the new position of head of the Ministry of energy of Ukraine and former officials have left him a legacy of lots of problems, can hardly be a justification for concealing them real problems.

“This is the third energy Minister in the last two years may not find the optimal solution to the problem of the coal industry, which is reflected in the electricity market. The fact that Ukraine expects a summer energy shortage, it was clear even in March-April. In August 2015, Ukraine was on the verge of an energy collapse. Now the situation is similar,” – said Korolchuk. In his opinion, there is only one month in order to resume the supply of anthracite from the DNI and the LC or other imported coal to avoid a catastrophic scenario.

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