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Friday, October 21, 2016

The energy disaster is imminent in Ukraine

Ukrainian power is in preinfarction state, and the government has lost control of the situation, stated Vice Prime Minister of Ukraine Valeriy Bosevski. In the coming disaster, he blames the political clashes between Poroshenko and Yatsenyuk, who “break not only energy, but also Ukraine.” To save the neighbors, as usual, have Russia.

“Almost four months, I worked in leadership in the anti-crisis energy headquarters. Unfortunately, the Ukrainian energy today is in a pre-stroke condition. I’ll tell you more, the government does not control the situation in the energy sector,” – said in the Verkhovna Rada Vice-the Prime Minister of Ukraine Valeriy Bosevski, who resigned (but not adopted).

“Ukrenergo promises to turn off the electricity in winter will be only in extreme cases and not more than two hours. But, as experience shows, to power each winter – an extreme case”

Bosevski told that the instructions of the Prime Minister and Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of energy Vladimir Demchishin left unattended. The official explained this situation by the fact that the Minister of energy is not in the Cabinet of Ministers and the presidential administration.

“The tension between the two heads of government are so obvious that they break not only energy, but also Ukraine. The locomotive, called a government, two driver one on Bankova street (where is located the presidential administration), the second – on the Grushevsky street (the address of the Cabinet),” he added. In his opinion, the current government needs to resign completely and allow the Prime Minister to form a new composition.

The Ukrainian government is really more preoccupied with politics and the redistribution of property, rather than preparing for winter energy. A month before the start of the heating season Ukraine is fully ready to take it. And all the Declaration that for the remaining time necessary to accumulate the required volumes of coal and gas, is just an attempt to shift the blame for the upcoming winter energy crisis for someone else.

The lesson of the past winter, when to avoid collapse of the energy system, Ukrainian authorities have managed only thanks to the warm weather and the supply of gas, coal and electricity from Russia, in vain. First, to really attend to the coal reserves in warehouses TPP, and fix the required volume of gas in Ukrainian underground storage facilities (which is 19-20 billion cubic meters) followed in the spring. But this was not done. Secondly, Kiev has not found money for the purchase of energy commodities. Third, the Kiev government has not restored partnership with Russia and the uncontrolled Kiev Donbass. And only they can provide Ukraine with the necessary amount of gas and coal.

To buy gas from Gazprom Kyiv simply refused, saying that it will enough reverse gas from Europe. To buy coal from DPR and LPR at market prices Kiev did not want to, because it can help with money uncontrolled territories simultaneously with the announcement of economic blockade them.

The situation with coal

Just recently, the Ministry of energy of Ukraine issued an order on the need to accumulate in warehouses TES the beginning of the heating season (November 1), 3 million tons of coal. Now there are only 1.5 million tons, that is, for the remainder of the month need a place to find, buy and sell another 1.5 million tons. This is obviously an impossible task, said Yuriy Korolchuk, member of the Supervisory Board of the Institute of energy initiatives (Ukraine).

According to him, to implement the plan every day to bring TPP 90 thousand tons of coal (65 thousand tonnes for the current operation of thermal power plants plus 25 thousand tons for resupply), but de facto in all TPP received only 77 thousand tons. “That is why the Minister Demchishin the accumulation of coal will not be executed. And it will be only his political power and responsibility,” – says Korolchuk.

The fact that the Ukrainian authorities in August called on the population of Ukraine to take loans at 25% per annum and to insulate their homes and reduced the rate of air temperature in the premises of the apartments and houses up to 16 degrees Celsius (until recently it was 20), proves that the authorities have long been aware of the catastrophic situation in the energy sector.

And now Ukrenergo warns that winter can be a power outage. The population of Ukraine “is again ordered to prepare for the “end of the world”, considered this message the leader of the Public movement “the Ukrainian choice” Viktor Medvedchuk. “Ukrenergo promises to turn off the electricity in winter will be only in extreme cases and not more than two hours. But, as experience shows, to power each winter – an extreme case,” wrote the Medvedchuk in Facebook.

Rolling blackouts in Ukraine can become a reality because of the actions of the authorities. The first mistake is to refuse to buy coal in the Donbass. As noted Korolchuk, some companies all summer came in the Ministry of energy, offering to supply more coal from the DNR and LC, however, the Ministry turned them all down. The opportunity to advance to hoard coal was – it is not used.

The second mistake is the conflict of energy DTEK about frozen tariffs for thermal power plants. Tariffs for thermal power plants of DTEK, the largest producer of electricity in the country was reduced, whereas for TPP and NPP is significantly increased. This led to the fact that DTEK was a loss of 3.4 billion USD, its TES, not enough money for the purchase of coal, have to take out loans, and the Russian Sberbank. The state has enterprises of DTEK UAH 6 billion, which does not give.

Energy own hands choking the main electricity producer in the country, which also has the ability to buy coal from DPR and LPR. The purpose of government can be only one – the redistribution of Akhmetov’s business (he owns DTEK).

Another reason for lack of coal that Kiev began to destroy the coal industry, covering gosshahty. Coal mining at the enterprises controlled by the Ministry, fell in January – August 2015 as much as 70%, or 10.2 million tonnes to 4.5 million tonnes.

In the end, the people of Ukraine at risk this winter to face not only with the blackouts, but with the lack of hot water and cold batteries.

“The experience of 2014 has shown that the decline in coal production directly affects the power supply and multi-storey private houses. In the second half of last year, millions of people across the country were forced to stay without light, and it seems that this trend will continue in the current year. Moreover, the shortage of coal shortages provoked heated hot water and heating. The chances of a freeze this winter to rise with each new day,” says Alexander Koltunovich of “the Ukrainian choice”.

To save Ukraine, apparently, will again have Russia. Says Demchyshyn, now from Russia imported 200-300 thousand tons of coal per month, and for winter period Ukraine will need to purchase 1 million tons of coal per month. For Russia, to find these volumes for sale not a problem, but whether Kiev will find money to purchase it?

The gas crisis

Download the required amount of gas in Ukrainian storage, abandoning Russian gas, Ukraine has also failed. In early September, Ukrainian Prime Minister Arseniy Yatsenyuk he acknowledged the obvious: the country’s preparation for the heating season failed.

“Over the last month (August) we’ve added 1.5 billion cubic metres of gas now in storage 14.5 billion This is not enough for the normal passage of the heating season”, – declared Yatsenyuk. To increase the volume in underground storage facilities to 19 billion cubic meters to 15 of October – the beginning of the heating season Ukraine will not have time.

Yatsenyuk its recognition was aimed to clear the money to buy gas from the EU. Kiev can push here to Europe, as it goes through Ukraine is vital to European consumers of Russian gas transit. Apparently, Kiev has succeeded. At least according to the results of the recent gas talks in Vienna, the EC guaranteed to Gazprom in the near future European financial institutions will allocate Ukraine $ 500 million loan to fix its UGS two billion cubic meters of gas. It is significant that these funds will be directly transferred to Gazprom, which the gas will be sold. Brussels is clearly afraid of wasting money the current leadership of Ukraine.

However, in UGS of Ukraine will still only pumped 16 billion cubic meters by the beginning of the heating season, said Tuesday the Minister. This means that for the normal passage of winter, Kyiv should be required to import more Russian gas. The signing of the tripartite Protocol on gas between Russia, Ukraine and the EC is the only way to pass the coming winter without risks, said Russian energy Minister Alexander Novak. And for that the EC should assume even greater financial guarantees for the purchase of Russian gas to Kiev. The decision on the “winter package” has yet to be signed.

However, recent statements Demchishin talking about the fact that Kiev is again set to delay the signing of the gas Protocol. The head of Ministry of Ukraine said that will require Gazprom’s gas prices in the winter to $ 220 per thousand cubic meters. This means that Kiev needs $ 30 discount on the contract price of $ 250. While Russia and the EC in the negotiations was discussed that the price of gas for Ukraine will be under contract and should not differ from the cost of gas to its European neighbors.

Thus, in addition to the threat of a collapse of the electricity supply in Ukraine, the threat of a new gas crisis as in 2008-2009. Then Kiev was stealing gas from the transit pipeline, forcing the freezing of Europe.

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