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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Expert: Britain after a Brexit will still be a fever

On Tuesday, June 28, in Brussels opened a two-day summit of member countries of the European Union, and one of the main issues on the agenda of the first day — a British exit from the EU (the so-called brexit). European Parliament President Martin Schulz has warned London that are waiting for a formal request for this reason. The second day of the summit, apparently, will be held without the participation of the British side, but promises to be no less interesting, because the European leaders will need to develop a strategy for the new situation. About what threat for the EU brexit and why the effect of it extends far beyond the ocean, “MK” told academician of RAS, Dean of the faculty of world politics of Moscow state University Andrey KOKOSHIN.

photo: pixabay.com

— The results of the British referendum has generated a very high degree of uncertainty, and directly in the EU and in the Euro-Atlantic scale, taking into account the interaction between the US and EU countries, — said Andrei Kokoshin. — It is necessary to remember that Washington and London has always had a special relationship. Britain, in turn, was and the special relationship with the EU — it did not immediately become part of the process of European integration, but also after joining the Union, retain their own position on many issues: the British have their own currency, London is one of the financial centres of the world… Therefore implications for the world economy, and for the system of world politics can be quite significant. Unless, of course, the British did not back off and will not hold a second referendum.

— How, in your opinion, the probability of a re-vote?

On the basis of which Parliament will decide whether to hold a second referendum — the question is very specific. But discord in the British society is visible — perhaps the country will still be a fever in that regard.

It is obvious that the incident is a consequence of the large errors in the development of the EU, including bets on extensive development, the enlargement of the Union without taking into consideration the development of economy, social spheres, and especially in the field of migration policy. And the British react precisely on the inadequacy of the policy of the European Union.

We may have to observe a period of crisis within the EU. Although, of course, much depends on the ability of European leaders to adapt to the new situation. It is believed that without the UK the EU will be easier. But nevertheless it is a blow to the EU, and the idea of the continuous development of European integration.

No wonder a worried and a significant part of the American political class. US President Obama has strongly advocated the preservation of Britain’s membership in the EU, because the relationship between Washington and London helped the Americans themselves more effectively to pursue a policy in Europe.

— As for Russia — than for our country is fraught with the current situation?

The UK was among the most ardent supporters of anti-Russian sanctions. In this issue, her position is almost identical with the American. Therefore, we can assume that brexit — although it will take a long time — able ultimately to affect relations between the remaining EU countries with Russia, including in a positive way.

It is important to monitor the situation in the economic sphere. The outcome of the referendum has already affected financial markets, and we must look carefully at what impact this will have on the economic situation within the EU. Because, despite the sanctions and counter-sanctions, the EU remains Russia are very important economic partner. In this respect, of course, a great importance will be the EU summit: will the leaders of the member countries to take appropriate measures in this situation? Some experts — rightly — believe that the result may not be achieved and the situation will only worsen.

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