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Tuesday, October 25, 2016

With the collapse of the EU may follow the collapse of great Britain

Not wanting to leave the EU, Scotland reflected on the exit of the UK: local Cabinet has already started the preparation of the referendum, with a solid chance to win. Meanwhile, the example of Britain has inspired the skeptics, and the billionaire George Soros has called the collapse of the European Union “almost inevitable”.

On last Thursday a referendum on the attitude of the UK towards the EU the votes of the Kingdom was actually divided on national-territorial basis. If in England and Wales was won by the supporters of leaving the EU, in Northern Ireland and Scotland scored opponents Brexit (Britain exit, “exit the UK”, so, we will remind, abbreviated referred to as the estimated departure of the country of the United Europe). For EU vote 62% of Scots. There was a record low number of supporters of leaving the EU is only 38%. In total, almost 52% of Britons were in favour of Brexit.

“Now catastrophic scenario, which many feared was realized, making the collapse of community is almost inevitable”

The Northern Ireland government has announced the recognition and respect of the referendum results. It thereby gave to understand that the question of secession from the United Kingdom there is not considered. That is natural: inter-communal peace is not established relatively recently. Fears that clashes between the radicals among the Catholic supporters of the accession of Ireland and the Protestants, in favour of unity with the UK, may be resumed if the authorities will make sudden movements, here are still present.

But in Scotland the requirements to leave the United Kingdom sounded almost immediately after the referendum. On Friday, the Scottish Prime Minister Nicola Sturgeon told the Telegraph that her country, despite everything, prefers to stay in the EU. On Saturday, the Scottish government announced the start of the preparation procedure of a new referendum on independence. “A second referendum is now definitely on the agenda”, – quotes TASS of the word Sturgeon. On behalf of the Cabinet of Ministers began developing a legislative framework for the new expression. Its date is not yet announced but it is obvious that to wait will not be long.

Recall that two years ago the Scots have been raised about membership in the United Kingdom. 18 September 2014, 55% voted for keeping Scotland in the UK. Now, according to a survey commissioned by the popular Scottish newspaper the Sunday Post, almost 59% of Scots vote for independence. Moreover, as the newspaper notes, the fracture occurred even in the mood for pensioners. Most of them advocated the unity of the United Kingdom. Now, among the Scots elderly 47% are supporters of independence.

Of course, such a result is greatly influenced by the peculiarities of Scotland. This is largely depressed (by British standards) region, with a relatively high proportion employed in agriculture population. Subsidies allocated by the EU, play a significant role in the local economy. Moreover, the local authorities have every reason to believe that in the absence of control of London grants, particularly local farmers, will be even higher, as on the continent.

However, this will only happen in one case: if Scotland following the release of the UK will not automatically beyond the threshold of the EU. Two years ago, the Commission made clear that it is quite possible. The threat to remain outside the UK and outside the EU had a strong impact on Scottish voters and without a doubt, influenced the outcome of the referendum.

And now the representative of the European Commission stated, as Reuters reports that “Scotland is part of great Britain”, calling to “stop the speculation” on the subject. A similar reaction experts have traditionally explained by the fear that the Scottish example can be contagious. Because the problem of separatism is not only in the UK. The probability is that after the Scotland to hold a referendum and in Catalonia, where is not the first talking about the possibility of secession from Spain. Not so great, but there is a possibility that separatists will assert itself in Italy. Finally, in the heart of the EU – in Belgium – is still not cleared finally the question of the partition of the country into two parts: Wallonia, the French-speaking population, and Flanders, where they speak Dutch.

However, it is difficult to say, how to behave in Brussels if Scotland still achieve independence. After a referendum in the UK has sharply strengthened the positions of eurosceptics across the EU. The proposal to hold a referendum on membership of their countries to the EU was made in Finland and the Netherlands. The Finns have even started collecting signatures under a petition. In both countries, the motives of the supporters of leaving the EU, in General, are the same as in the UK, independence from the dictates of Brussels will help you to better dispose of the money going to the General Treasury of the European Union, will eliminate the need to accept refugees, would allow a more competent foreign policy without regard to the European bureaucracy.

Both in Finland and in the Netherlands for withdrawal from the EU welcomed the representatives of the parties that are not related to local political mainstream of the Dutch “Party of freedom” and “True Finns”. However, the initiative clearly has massive support. For example, in Finland, according to RIA “Novosti”, the petition for a referendum on leaving the EU in a matter of hours gained 10 thousand supporters at the required for a referendum is 50 thousand

Interestingly, the referendum in the UK has shaken the position of Euro-optimists, even in the pillars of European integration – Germany and France. In any case, in Germany the number of supporters of the country’s withdrawal from the EU increased. And in France the idea of a referendum has been adopted by marine Le Pen, related now among the most popular politicians in the country.

“I’m afraid other countries might follow the UK example, it is necessary to prevent. Indeed, in the Netherlands, Denmark, Sweden wonder whether the current Europe by the solution of the problem or part of the problem” – quoted Russia Today a former foreign Minister of Italy Franco Frattini.

Meanwhile, on Saturday to discuss the situation met the foreign Minister of France, Belgium, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Luxembourg. At its end, foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier called for a restrained assessment of a referendum in the UK and its consequences. “The situation is such that it does not fall either in hysteria or in a state of shock,” – quotes his words TASS.

However, the billionaire George Soros, famous for its ability to predict various economic and political upheavals, in my opinion. With which he hastened to acquaint the European public in an article for the Project Syndicate portal demonstration called “Brexit and the future of Europe”. In it, he predicted the inevitable collapse of the European Union and the UK. “Now catastrophic scenario, which many feared was realized, making the collapse of community is almost inevitable,” wrote Soros.

To avoid such a scenario is certainly possible if the British would change their will. The collection of signatures for a new referendum in the country already underway. However, precedents have held two national will in a row on the same issue, at least in the UK.

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