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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

The center of gravity in world politics is shifting to Asia

The center of gravity of world politics is shifting to Asia

September 11, 2014, 08:46

Text: Peter Akopov


On Thursday and Friday in Dushanbe will bring together the heads of member States of the Shanghai cooperation organization. The SCO summit will be held in the capital of Tajikistan in a radically new international environment – one of the main consequences of the Ukrainian conflict is turning Russia to the East. And the role of the SCO as the main platform for our cooperation with the countries of Asia will become even more important.

The previous SCO summit was held a year ago in Bishkek in a turbulent environment – during the Syrian crisis, shortly after Vladimir Putin was able to prevent a US attack on Syria.

But now the international situation is even more tense – Ukrainian crisis has led to an open confrontation between Russia and the West, began a policy of sanctions and blockade of our country. Europe is increasingly becoming a puppet in the hands of the Atlanticist, deeper bogged down in conflict with Russia, weakening and breaking bilateral relations and Eurasian power is accelerating the process of turning to the East and South, and so gaining strength in recent years. Essential elements arrayed Moscow becomes a new world order of BRICS, which unites the key powers of the three continents, as well as his unique Asian branch of the SCO.

If in 90-e years of the SCO was created by Beijing and Moscow to maintain stability in Central Asia, by the end of zero, she has grown an organization that has not regional importance. In the apparent scrapping of the Anglo-Saxon model of world order and persistent US attempts to destabilise various regions of the world to deter rivals and keep their domination of the SCO is becoming a key bloc, which unites the countries of Asia. It is not an Asian NATO – because it is not yet a military Alliance, besides he has no leader-hegemon (and this is its strength and prospects) – but at least a counterweight to NATO. SCO is not a organization dedicated only to Central Asia – it becomes the way into Asian-wide and even pan-Eurasian structure.

In Dushanbe, will gather the heads of 12 countries – in addition to the six countries – participants of the SCO (Russia, China, Kazakhstan, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan and Kyrgyzstan) will arrive the first persons of four of the five observer countries (Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Mongolia) as well as the President of neutral Turkmenistan. India will be represented by Minister of foreign Affairs.

At the summit finally determined the issue with the expansion of the organization, which has been discussed for several years. Will formulate conditions for the accession of new members – and we already know that India and Pakistan the following year, the SCO summit, which will be held in July in Ufa, will become full-fledged members of the organization. With Delhi joining the SCO will finally become the Asian pillar of the BRICS, after all, the key triangle Russia – India – China will be the Foundation of both organizations.

No objection in principle and in Mongolia, has long been very want to raise their status and Afghanistan with Iran. But if Iran is hindered by the fact that it is under international sanctions, in the case of Afghanistan, the obstacle is American (technically international) occupation.

In Tehran, I hope that the fact that Russia is now itself is under sanctions (though not the UN, like Iran, but still), will change the terms of their country in the SCO. The deepening of Russian-Iranian partnership also increases the chances of Tehran, we should not forget that Moscow and Beijing can trigger the lifting of international sanctions against Tehran. After all for anybody not a secret that they were supported by Russia as only one of the elements of the game with Washington and did not meet our national interests, and if before Moscow had at least some reasons to support the sanctions, now no point in it left.

Iran can be a reliable ally of Russia, which is building a new multipolar world, because Tehran does not simply stand against lasting a third of a century of blockade and pressure from the US, but remained faithful to their own way, their civilization and the principles of state and social order. That is demonstrated those qualities, which are needed now from all countries willing to join Russia in building world are not American.

Afghanistan, this summit will be one of the main topics for discussion (along with Syria, Iraq and, of course, Ukraine). To take Afghanistan into its ranks, the SCO is in no hurry, even though the Afghan problem is a major regional irritant for all the participating countries. The reason for the refusal, Afghanistan – the American occupation and General instability.

This year the main part of the Western troops to leave Afghanistan, but the Americans do not hurry with the withdrawal of troops until that moment, until they get guarantees for the preservation of its military bases and 10-thousand troops in the country. Afghan President Karzai refuses to sign the Treaty, hoping thereby at least partially to get rid of the image of an American puppet in the eyes of their own people. Karzai wants to shift decision-making on the bases on the shoulders of the new President, which was to elect a few months ago, but the election results are not announced, and both candidates reaching the second round, consider themselves winners.

In any case, it is clear that voluntary Americans from Afghanistan will not go away – and not because after their evacuation there return to power by the Taliban. Just Afghanistan is a beautiful point to put pressure on all countries which the US considers as its main adversaries: Iran, Russia and China. The preservation of American military bases in Afghanistan, of course, do not like either one of these countries, but, with the exception of Iran, Russia and China to refrain from open demands the elimination of US military presence in the country. The reason for this is simple – Moscow and Beijing are not interested in the return to power of the Taliban, fearing that it may lead to splattering of radical Islam beyond the Northern border of Afghanistan, in Central Asia that destabilizie secular regimes in the former Soviet republics.

So far, Russia and China proceeded from the fact that Americans in Kabul – it is a lesser evil than the Taliban, but it is clear that it was only situational, not strategic choice. All the SCO countries are certainly interested in that with time to finally squeeze US out of Afghanistan – and the complication of the overall world situation can only strengthen their desire to hasten this time.

The more that the Taliban still come back to power – the main question is in what form it occurs, whether it’s government or dictatorship at the end of the civil war, will it be possible to decentralize power in Afghanistan. SCO member States need to act as guarantors as the intra-Afghan dialogue (including the search for new forms of countries) and security of Afghanistan, because, unlike the U.S., they are vitally interested in it. But all this is possible only after the withdrawal of American troops, and the way it is now Beijing and Moscow will push for this Afghan elite (not offering its troops), and is the main intrigue.

The solution of the Afghan problem is impossible without Pakistan – and in this respect the country’s accession to full membership in the SCO is very important. The Pashtuns, constituting the main support of the Taliban do not recognize the Pakistani-Afghan border, separating them into two – completely artificial, conducted by the Anglo-Saxons a hundred years ago between its Indian colonies and defended the independence of Afghanistan. Pakistan, sandwiched between India and Afghanistan, was for many years a faithful ally of the United States, but in recent years the local elites are increasingly aware that their country needs the West only as a base for the games of the Anglo-Saxon strategists (including against the Soviet Union or India). Strengthening Sino-Pakistani partnership – through which Pakistan and will be adopted in the SCO along with India – as well as the mitigation of the Pakistan-Indian controversy will further weaken Atlantic orientation of Islamabad.

And in General, ultimately, Asia will displace the Atlantic out of their borders – and the times when the Anglo-Saxon manipulators drew the boundaries, occupied, played off and bribed, formed the worldview of the elites and dictated the will of the Asian peoples and countries, will sink into Oblivion.

The more the SCO will demonstrate confidence in their abilities in the fight for a future for a fair way in the region and globally, the more will be attracted to various Asian countries, the easier it will be to find common ground with the same Islamic world. Time goes West – an era of the East. Eurasian Russia has made its choice.

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