Ukraine’s economy for the first time in two years began to grow, announced by the national Bank. While the financial authorities casual slip – growth can begin in February, if the activists of “Right sector” did not suit the transport blockade of Russia. Experts remind that Ukraine suffers from the other blockade, which it imposed – the Crimea.
Ukraine’s GDP for the first two years showed growth in the first quarter grew by 0.1% in annual terms, said on Thursday the press service of the National Bank of Ukraine. However, the regulator said that he expected more – this rate in annual terms was slightly lower compared to the rating of the national Bank (0.8 per cent) were published in the report for April.
“It is easier to assess the damage from the blockade of the Crimea for a specific region – in Kherson region. There are very clear losses of millions of dollars”
Earlier, Prime Minister Vladimir Groisman said that it expects the country’s economic growth this year by 1.5%. Last year GDP fell by 9.9%.
The press service of the national Bank explained the reasons for the growth could start earlier, but that did not happen, and the main reason was the political wing is the blockade of transit goods along the roads of Ukraine, which was introduced in the winter. “GDP growth in the quarter was constrained mainly temporary factors. On the background of the transit constraints of the Russian Federation, which operated in January and February, this period saw the deterioration of business expectations”, – quotes the message of the national Bank Kiev “New time”.
However, in the Verkhovna Rada, the ruling coalition refused to believe the conclusions of the national Bank that the transport blockade has hindered economic growth. “I don’t think that this story prevented the growth of the economy. Such a large effect of this I do not see. It was rather symbolic, significant effects on the economy are not provided,” – said the newspaper LOOK first Deputy Chairman of the faction Block Petro Poroshenko Alexey Goncharenko.
However, the National Bank does not mention why did the “transport restrictions by the Russian Federation. Meanwhile it is known that the restrictions Moscow imposed as a reaction to the blockade, which first began on February 14 the Ukrainian radical nationalists on the Western borders of Ukraine.
Unlike Goncharenko, the Director of the Kyiv center of political marketing Vasily Stoyakin doubt that the reaction of activists “Freedoms”, blocked the road in winter, Russian fur, was purely emotional. “I think they decided to take advantage of the situation, the fact that Poland closed the border, and quickly bring Russia to its knees? For our politicians this behavior – at the kindergarten level – typically, but I think the more compelling assumption that the activists of the “Freedom” your deal with it themselves raped” – said the newspaper VIEW Stoyakin not exclude that the activists “Freedoms” are simply paid from Poland.
“Ukraine this got nothing, but played along with Poland. As you know, the blockade stopped immediately after that, as Moscow and Warsaw have settled their dispute over transit tariffs. I think it was a combination deal of some small Ukrainian politicians on the one hand and the phenomenal idiocy of the state to another”, – said Ukrainian economist.
Recall, February 1, expired validity of permits for cargo transportation, which annually exchange Russia and Poland. While the parties failed to agree on its extension, the trucks of the two countries from that day could not cross the border. Then instead of Russian trucks headed through Transcarpathia. However, the organization “Right sector*” and “Carpathian Sich” has announced its participation in the blocking of trucks – they are equipped with tracks on its own checkpoint and stopped all trucks with Russian numbers. Soon the blockade was joined by a more powerful organization – the Ukrainian nationalist party “Freedom”, which blocked the transit of Russian goods not only in the Transcarpathian region, but in Chernivtsi, Volyn, Lviv. Transcarpathian Governor Gennady Moskal welcomed the blockade. “Look for other ways, go through Sri Lanka, through Somalia, it is your right,” he said, referring to Russia.
Russia in response to this illegal blocking of Russian trucks halted on its territory, the movement of trucks registered in Ukraine.
Later, Moscow and Kiev agreed on the resumption of transportation on February 25. Prime Minister of Ukraine Arseniy Yatsenyuk even instructed the security forces to help unlock the transit, took him under protection.
However, even then the government of Ukraine recognized that the blockade can have disastrous consequences. “Ukraine is a catastrophic situation, because we are a transit state, we have a huge part of the economy depends on transit,” – said the head of the Department of motor transport of Ministry of infrastructure of Ukraine Roman Chmiel, speaking on March 1 to “Public television”.
Kiev gets himself horizontal blow
Stoyakin difficult to estimate the loss that is suffered by Ukraine from the winter of the blockade. “It is easier to assess the damage from the blockade of the Crimea for a specific region – in Kherson region. There are very clear losses of millions of dollars in hryvnia. Most likely, will be reduced crops due to the fact that we went to the Crimea, it is now grown will be gone. On the other hand, there was a catastrophic situation with water. The overlap of the North Crimean canal have hurt the southern districts of the region. And so there were problems with field agriculture, and now also having problems with ground water, because you have to rapidly pump out the aquifers, which previously were replenished by seepage from the channel and from the fields is likely to lead to siltation,” warns the Director of the Kyiv center of political marketing.
We will remind, last week the UNIAN news Agency published the comment of the expert, called “a big mistake” blockade of the Peninsula. “The initiators of the blockade, hoped that Crimeans on their own stomachs will understand that without Ukraine, they can not do, and will want to return. However, the result was different: instead of Ukrainian food in the Crimean trade networks were Russian. Moreover, the Crimean hostile attitude to the Ukrainian food blockade. In the positive it is not played, the Crimean market, Ukraine has lost,” he said UNIAN.
Meanwhile, Stoyakin is not at all inclined to trust to the reports of the national Bank that the economy of Ukraine for the first time after independence began to grow. “In fact, the Bank is not the organization, which in this case is to believe. There is a profile of the Agency – Goskomstat and Ministry of economy, – said the economist. – It is unclear whether they already record economic growth. And what is imagining the national Bank, in General, not so important.”
* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”Related posts: