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Monday, March 19, 2018

The carelessness of the command led the Syrian army to severe defeat

The desire of the Syrian government army to take the capital of ISIS” arc and quickly now filled with sand and covered with blood. A number of strategic errors of command led to the loss of the actual shock troops of Syrian troops and of a number of previously taken positions. The time has come to make unpleasant for many insights.

As predicted, the newspaper VIEW, strategically wrong and tactically ill-considered attack government troops in Raqqa, suddenly choked. LIH* launched a counteroffensive in the bare desert and pushed the Syrian army (SAA) on the road Itria – Tabka so that under the control of government troops in this area left only a small ledge along the route to the East.

“Now it is necessary to admit that there had been an operational defeat, the causes of which were the underestimation of the enemy and mistakes of strategic planning”

Only for the first day of the counter-offensive of the jihadists were lost 15-20 kilometers along the highway, that is, all outstanding achievements, which boasted in Damascus, including two strategic crossroads. A counterattack developed on the basic scheme. First, at the checkpoint of the government forces, Shia and PMC came the trucks with suicide – and despite the fact that some of them were destroyed on the approach, it destroyed the defensive positions of the CAA.

The exact numbers of casualties cannot be determined, but the data series, have towers “Syriatel” could have been killed several hundred soldiers. It is true that jihadists such large numbers will not lead that they are not peculiar. According to them, the loss of government forces amount to about a hundred people, and as trophies “warriors of Allah” got a couple of tanks.

This attack on the highway which stretches along the front of the government troops asking for a long time. By 20 June, the jihadists managed to throw in this area are enough parts to mount a counteroffensive. But even then, they operated on a very modest number of armored vehicles in the open desert doing nothing. There is evidence that the occurrence of intersections at Tabka were only three tanks T-72 and a little more than older models.

What made the army of Syria with the help of Russian troops (infographic)Another thing is that even before the ISIS offensive in parts of government troops and allies, moving to Tabqa, the unexplained crisis management. Two assault units (one of them – the famous PMC “Falcons of the desert”) just left the front, retreating to the rear without any coordination with the command. After that, the jihadists and collapsed on the CAA all your bombers and three tanks. There is a threat to the environment, and government troops began to retreat to the border of the province, where two weeks ago started a frontal attack on Raqqa.

Assistance to the Russian VKS the situation is not saved. Despite the fact that the strikes at two famous intersections, which government forces failed to capture the “hurriedly”. Use in the first wave of bombers and the minimum number of armored vehicles has made unproductive attempts by the Russian VKS.

In addition, the jihadists, as suggested by the newspaper VIEW, synchronized strike on the edge of the advancing troops with similar but less effective attacks down the flank along the road and in the direction of Palmyra. The data series, at Palmyra lost one of the roadblocks in the granaries, but in General it is not critical.

Given the fact that SAA has a significant advantage in tanks and artillery, ISIS is now quite difficult to maneuver the remaining reserves. But the jihadists have cleverly used the tactical flaws of the government troops. In addition, they continue to exert pressure on stretched communication, resulting in one enemy tank and a dozen soldiers rustle up entire units of the CAA, just raking the track.

In the end, the strike force of government troops and allies, in fact, ceased to exist, despite the fact that her physical loss, apparently, still not catastrophic. ISIS just was not strong enough to surround her and finish, but the jihadists initially very well used suddenly opened a flank of the government troops, throwing the Central portion of the suicide bombers. We should also remember that suicide is also loss, so it is more about exchanges, not about the universal weapon (that to calculate the actual loss of the jihadists, no one, is another question).

American-Kurdish attack on Raqqa in the North and North-East petered out in may, and now the jihadists, virtually eliminated the threat to their “capital” from the South-West. Alas, we have to admit that the idea of such attacks on Raqqa is flawed and is more political than strategic military nature.

I told Damascus: go to Deir-ez-Zor, Raqqa isolate the area – and they will run out of steam after some time. No – raqqa marked as the second most important goal for 2016. But if the first – Palmyra – took ahead of schedule, that’s not a reason to organize a competition “who will come to Raqqa”. Now all this can take a long time, and although forecasts, that is, positive, this kind of error can not disappoint. Despite the growing supply problems, to underestimate the jihadists is impossible. Especially if to remember that at the operational level of their troops, commanded by former Iraqi military, many of whom were trained in Soviet military schools.

At the same time a counter-offensive from Tabka ISIS made several attempts to break out of the boiler at Manuja, even captured several villages, but to reconnect with the great land surrounded by parts of jihadists could not – the Kurds are sitting around them pretty tight, but a few American commandos eventually got injured. The same applies to the South of Aleppo, where the battle of “all against all” do not stop for a minute, and the main losses and the government army, and jihadists and “moderates” have all the same the most bloody area where the loss of each of the parties exceeded a thousand people. But the front is not moving.

In General, nothing apocalyptic has not happened yet. In five years of war, more destruction has happened. And even in the last eight to nine months, government forces have repeatedly sat down in a deep puddle on a variety of fronts. In the province of Hama, for example, in February of this year. Sat and at HOMS, where at the end of the exact same ill-conceived attack by government troops lost several dozen tanks and infantry fighting vehicles. But every time the CAA has found the strength to regroup and to respond to rapid destruction of successful operations. As a result, the military campaign we have a number of strategic success and transition initiatives to the government army.

But the unwillingness (or inability?) some government commanders carefully and objectively to plan offensive, is pretty annoying. This is not to mention the bragging and endless triumphant, multiplied by the peculiarities of national mentality. Now it should be easy to recognize, that there had been an operational defeat, the causes of which were the underestimation of the enemy and mistakes of strategic planning. Sit down, exhale and look in the direction of Deir ez-Zor. There is victory, go that way.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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