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Wednesday, March 14, 2018

SCO becomes the power center of Eurasia

At the summit in Tashkent members of the Shanghai cooperation organization will be finally adopted by India and Pakistan. And SCO irrevocably transformed from regional Russian-Chinese enterprises in TRANS, i.e. global, structure. Still not anti-NATO, but not the club neighbors.

The Prime Minister of India and President of Pakistan signed the Tashkent papers about their countries ‘ obligations in accession to the SCO, and the organization will be limited to six and eight participants. Almost half of the population, the three largest and strongest country in Eurasia, four nuclear powers – this is the new SCO.

“The SCO countries rapidly approaching to independently control security in the heart of Asia”

The SCO was established 15 years ago, four former Soviet Central Asian republics (except for a neutral self-sufficient and Turkmenistan) together with Russia and China decided to work together to ensure security in the region. However, the predecessor of the SCO, the “Shanghai five” (the same members, except Uzbekistan), appeared in 1996, so now the organization’s double anniversary.

The SCO was conceived as a regional structure after the collapse of Soviet Russia and China was important to the Central Asian States does not become a zone of instability, not become a base for various anti-Chinese and anti-Russian forces. What a neat diplomatic language is called international terrorism, drug trafficking and separatism – in the language of geopolitics, Russia and China need to avoid the intervention of external forces in the Central Asian region. And clearly, any external forces – from radical Islam to Anglo-Saxon secret services (the more that are sometimes difficult to understand where to end the second and begin the first). In addition, Russia and China it was important not to face in the struggle for influence in post-Soviet Asia, and not to allow the third forces to kindle Russo-Chinese confrontation in this important for both countries and the region.

If Russia, Central Asia will always be not just the near abroad, but also guarantee the security of our South, but for China, the region is extremely important as an area adjacent to the Xinjiang Uygur district, the largest Muslim autonomy of China, the destabilization of the situation which is one of the most important bets of the opponents of Beijing.

Russia and China took under his wing Central Asia at a time when the main issue seemed possible instability in the newly formed States of the region – but it soon became clear that the SCO there was an unexpected neighbor. In 2001 the US invaded Afghanistan – and although Moscow did not oppose the operation, not counting the Taliban the legitimate government of this country, the fact of the occupation of Afghanistan by the Americans could not be alerted Russia and China. States came to the region not the Taliban, not even for terrorists – they came to occupy a strategically important position between Russia and China.

A few years later the US was denied observer status in the SCO but it didn’t cancel the fact that the States present in the region of the Shanghai organization. Not going to leave – and Afghanistan, as 20 and 15 years ago, remains a major headache for the Central Asian States, primarily Tajikistan, Uzbekistan and Turkmenistan. The American occupation has not decreased, but even increased threats – the Taliban are preserved, there is also radical Islamists who have sworn to “Caliphate”. Afghanistan is still a barrel of gunpowder, to leave the Americans are not going not because of concerns about the security of other countries of Central Asia.

But if the Afghan problem in 15 years, the SCO failed to solve the Afghanistan was adopted in the SCO as an observer, but to get into the occupied States of the country, Russia and China had neither the ability nor the desire to do something the objectives of the organization over the years has grown considerably. SCO will say its the key word in solving the Afghan issue – it happens at the moment when the United States will still have to leave Afghanistan and the country will be no longer on the brink, and in a state of civil war. Yet, no matter how important for the SCO that the United States left Afghanistan, they openly do not require Moscow and Beijing to agree to tolerate the American bases in their backyard, knowing that appeals Washington still will not catch and dig the Afghan rubble of a thankless task (although this will have to do for SCO).

In addition to the solution of the Afghan problem can not do without Pakistan – this country is a key theme in any Afghan settlement. The AfPak is nicknamed the territory. Pakistan is the Muslim parts of British India, which was in contact with Afghanistan, a mountainous country, lying between the Russian and British empires. Afghanistan was given to the British and they were forced to leave him in peace, cutting off a portion of the territories inhabited by the largest (and state -) the people of Afghanistan, Pashtuns.

After the formation of independent Pakistan, Afghanistan continued to consider the land for its Pashtun – Pashtuns themselves have never recognised any borders (besides faux). Divided Nations is an excellent tool for external manipulation, as happened during the Afghan war, when Pakistan territory to the Americans organized the war with Moscow-backed Kabul authorities and stationed in Afghanistan by the Soviet army. Today, Pakistan remains a base for the Taliban – but not wants to remain an American satellite.

Indeed, Pakistan was for many years under the strong Anglo-Saxon influence – trained in the West, the elites were told that the main guarantee of the enemies of their country can only be USA. And the main enemy is India, a traditional ally of the USSR. When to this was added “the Soviet occupation of Afghanistan,” the Pakistani authorities felt surrounded by enemies. There were, however, more friendly to Pakistan and China, always dedicated to Islamabad as a counterweight Delhi, close attention – but then, in 70-80th years, Beijing has been at loggerheads with Moscow and played against us, including in Afghanistan. Since then, much has changed – and not only because of the appearance of bundles from Moscow to Beijing.

Pakistan has experienced the second Afghan war – and the Americans absolutely did not stand on ceremony with the bombing of Pakistani territory and generally with the action on the ground of his “ally” (killing of bin Laden is only the most well-known operation). Anti-American sentiment in Muslim Pakistan have long been going through the roof – and then there’s Beijing increasingly offers cooperation and economic projects. China is ready to invest (and has invested) in Pakistan tens of billions of dollars to make it one of the key countries of the “New silk road”.

Improve Sino-Indian relations, Russia begins deliveries of weapons to Pakistan – – – Islamabad can be sure that no one wants war with India. Moreover, Russia and China are interested in improving Pakistani-Indian relations – and additional conditions for this will appear as a result of joining Delhi and Islamabad in the SCO. Of course, both countries will not abandon nuclear weapons will not disappear and territorial disputes between them – but their very participation in joint Russian-Chinese project can fundamentally change the security architecture in Asia.

Moscow and Beijing, of course, do not become guarantors of the Pakistan-India peace and friendship – but in the framework of the SCO Delhi and Islamabad will be much easier to find a common language on security issues. Including solving common to all the Afghan problem. But with the accession to the SCO Western neighbor of Afghanistan, Iran – instead, it could take place in 2017 – the interests of almost all of Central and South Asia will be discussed in the framework of the Shanghai organization.

Who controls the heartland (Russia, Central Asia with Xinjiang, Iran, and Afghanistan) – who controls Eurasia, who controls Eurasia, who controls the whole world: so says one of the most important laws of Anglo-Saxon geopolitics. The SCO countries are fast approaching to independently control security in the middle Asia.

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