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Sunday, October 23, 2016

Grandson Gromyko called the probability of collapse of the UK high

British Prime Minister Cameron, who performed his promise to hold a referendum on the country’s membership in the European Union, announced the imminent departure from his post. Meanwhile, the “national margin” of the United Kingdom, dissatisfied with the outcome of the vote, talking about the possibility of holding referenda on independence from London.

photo: AP

So disintegrate is the UK? This question is not without reason – the referendum showed that the United Kingdom is divided: for withdrawal from the EU voted England and Wales, against Scotland and Northern Ireland. The reaction was not long in coming. Scotland’s first Minister Nicola Sturgeon declared that begins preparation of the legal framework for holding a new referendum on Scottish independence – as the key to preserving place within the EU and the European single market. We will remind that past in 2014 a referendum on Scottish independence ended with the victory of those who wanted to see this region part of the United Kingdom.

Saw his chance in the voting and the Northern Ireland nationalists: party “Sinn FEIN” declares that there are grounds for holding a referendum on the reunification of Northern Ireland with Ireland.

And Spain after the announcement of the results of the referendum have made clear that intensifying the fight for the return of sovereignty over Gibraltar, now owned by the British.

“The likelihood of the collapse of the United Kingdom is high enough, – the Director of Institute of Europe RAS Alexey Gromyko. – Not currently, but in the foreseeable future. Given that Scotland voted in favour of Britain’s membership of the EU were almost two times more than those who voted against it (this is the biggest gap in British regions), the statement of Nicola Sturgeon looks quite logical. We must not forget that before the last election in 2015 in Britain, the Manifesto of the Scottish nationalists clearly stated that if political circumstances change significantly, then Edinburgh will present a proposal of re-holding of independence. This decision must first be approved by the Parliament in London to enact a law, then Scotland will have the opportunity to hold this referendum.”

The country needs new leaders, said after the announcement of the results of a referendum on Brexit, the head of the British government David Cameron, promising to resign in three months. According to Cameron it is scheduled for October Congress of the Conservative party, the country needs to be the new Prime Minister. This “mate” will have to start the procedure of exit from the EU.

As for Cameron – it is possible to tell: the moor has done his duty, the moor can go. He became Prime Minister under the sign of the promise to hold a referendum on the country’s membership in the European Union, though, and spoke loudly in favor of retaining the status quo, scaring countrymen impact on wages and prices, and for peace in Europe, if they win, those who wants to withdraw Britain from the EU.

“The decision of Cameron is because he lost the referendum, betting to win, and after such a shocking defeat, he could no longer remain in office, – says Alexey Gromyko. – He would have been under the fire of harsh criticism by all except the euroskeptic wing of his party, who would be quite comfortable having it on actually as their hostage. But that did not happen, he decided to leave. Now while many will interpret this as the fact that he washed his hands. And the fact that he is getting involved in the referendum, introduced the country for the sake of change in their favor even before the last parliamentary elections. Then he won tactically but lost strategically, and are now forced to leave his post. Leave them after this referendum the ruins will be forced now to clean up other people”.

It is not clear who could replace Cameron, but the bookmakers believe that has maximum chances of ex-London mayor Boris Johnson (the probability of his election the new Prime Minister is estimated at 50%). Less likely (20%) from the Lord Chancellor of the United Kingdom and Minister of justice Michael Gove, followed by the interior Minister Theresa may (15%).

As you know, Boris Johnson, until may of this year headed the British capital, had strongly criticized the policy of Brussels and the statements that Britain should free themselves from the dictates of the EU.

“Boris Johnson has more other chances to become the new leader of the Conservative party, – says Alexey Gromyko. – He was the leader of the campaign to withdraw Britain from the European Union, the last years he was in the category of those politicians who were considered as candidates for the post of the future leader of the tories. And now may be his finest hour. But will any other contenders for the post? For example, interior Minister Theresa may, who argued for the retention of British membership in the EU. The party will go to debate – who’s better: Boris Johnson (that finally will bring forward eurosceptics in the Conservative party) or Teresa may (not to give the party finally split).

Watch the video on “David Cameron announced the resignation reddened face”

The Prime Minister of great Britain David Cameron during a speech immediately after the results of the referendum on withdrawal from the EU said : “to Me it was not an easy decision, but I believe a period of stability in the national interest and requires a new leader. There is no need to install a particular term <my retirement> but, in my opinion, we should be the new Prime Minister by the end of October, when the Congress of the conservative party”.

Video published on the website youtube.com user PrivateNews

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