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Sunday, December 4, 2016

Turkey will not be able to avoid an apology to Russia


Turkey is seeking ways of restoring relations with Russia, but not ready to do the most important and the only possible step is to admit their guilt in the destruction of the aircraft in the skies over Syria and the death of the Russian pilot at the hands of Pro-Turkish militants. Instead, Ankara is continuing to slide into debt and suffering huge losses.

It is not even financial compensation, but the fact – the Russian pilot did not threaten Turkish territory and Turkish citizens. Therefore, giving the order to attack, the Turkish authorities could not understand that it will be perceived as an act of aggression. And what Ankara hopes now, speaking about the desire to restore normal relations with Russia, but at the same time rejecting the possibility of the apology quite difficult to understand.

“Last year Russia became the second largest exporter of oil and oil products on the territory of Turkey”

Before the press Secretary of the President of Turkey Ibrahim Kalin in an interview with TV channel Haberturk TV once again said about the apology and compensation, even speech can not go. The Turkish authorities have said sorry about what happened, he said Kalin. He also commented on congratulations, which Erdogan had previously sent to President Vladimir Putin in Day of Russia. According to the representative of the Turkish leader, the letter was sent “according to the international traditions” and is nothing more than a legal document.

The Kalin acknowledged that the Turkish tourism sector is suffering due to the Russian sanctions. As previously noted the newspaper VIEW, the word “suffering” in this case is a very mild description of the situation. More accurate is the term “collapse.” The most famous Turkish resort of Antalya, is experiencing the worst June in recent decades, in connection with the sharp decline in tourist arrivals from Russia and Germany – 98% and 45%, respectively. According to various estimates, Turkey’s losses from the reduction of tourist flow can be between 8 to 12 billion dollars, and about 80-100 thousand people will become unemployed. “We are now in a position that is much worse than expected by the pessimistic scenario of development of events”, – says the head of the chamber of Commerce of Antalya, Davutoglu, Cetin.

Thus a total blockade of Turkey of the question. Russia is not going to like the EU, to the detriment of themselves to abandon projects that are beneficial and useful for our economy. She does not reject and Protocol communication, following the regulations, which assumes its membership in international organizations. For example, the Turkish foreign Minister along with his Ukrainian counterpart were invited to the meeting of foreign Ministers of the black sea economic cooperation (BSEC), which will take place in Sochi on July 1.

As explained by Deputy foreign Minister of Russia Vasily Nebenzu, “we invited all Ministers and we are waiting for all, including Turkey and Ukraine, but no response yet. “I think that this week or early next, it will be clear (who will participate),” he added. Thus, according to the Russian representative, the meeting of the foreign Ministers does not involve bilateral meetings, but “we from anybody do not run, do not hide, with all the talk and open in this sense for any conversations.”

Thus, the format of Russian sanctions on Turkey is very different from European anti-Russian restrictions. From Ankara you do not want to influence what is happening in another country, no one calls to put the Turks on the spot.” Moscow is ready for constructive cooperation. But it is necessary to perform the principal condition is to apologize for hostile acts.

However, for the current Turkish leadership it can become a daunting task, as evidenced by the clearly inadequate response of Ankara to Germany’s recognition of the Armenian genocide. The possibility of finding his own wrong is for Erdogan and Co. are so frightening that they are willing to continue to suffer political and economic losses.

Of course, to talk about the impasse in Russian-Turkish relations is impossible – as evidenced by the invitation of the foreign Minister of Turkey at the meeting in Sochi, and the continuation of cooperation in the oil and gas sector. According to the Agency IRNA, last year Russia became the second largest exporter of oil and oil products on the territory of Turkey. Continue in force all the gas contracts, regularly discussed the possibility of resumption of the project on construction of gas pipeline to Greece, both on the Bulgarian and on the Turkish route.

But Russian tourists visa-free regime, exports of food products, the Russian construction sites and much more the Turkish economy will not see – until the moment when Erdogan or some other Turkish leader to admit the obvious: the destruction of the Russian plane was an unprovoked act of aggression that requires an apology. And it is not discussed. Discuss issues about the amount of compensation and the timing of lifting the sanctions, but after an official apology.

The main question is how long will it take from Ankara on the realization that apology to Russia are not something humiliating. Humiliating to continue to be associated with ally LIH*. No one questioned the right of Turkey to protect its airspace, but what if, for example, Greece were treated to the same question more fundamentally than it is now? Recall that, according to Athens last year Turkey violated the airspace of Greece 2244 times. If you take previous years, the statistics are as follows: in 2013, 636, and in 2012-m – 646, in 2011-m – 962, 2010- 1239, 2009- 1678, in 2008-m – 1288. While no aircraft in Greek airspace, Turkey, as you know, is not lost. A Russian plane was shot down, we will remind, on the territory of Syria.

According to Bloomberg, because of the sanctions Russia Turkey caught in a “debt trap” situation in its banking sector continues to deteriorate. The amount of non-performing loans rose to 3.18%, the highest figure for the last five years. There are no prerequisites for changing this trend is not.

Russia, again, is open to negotiation. But there is one fundamental condition.

* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”

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