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Saturday, December 3, 2016

GDP hovered: plus-minus zero


The falling Russian economy has already hit bottom. According to Alexei Ulyukayev, in June last year, and gradually comes to the surface. Here only on what? Western experts believe that this year’s drop in our GDP will continue, but, however, is not as fast as in the past, instead of 3.9% less than 1.2%. And then there may even be a rise, but hardly noticeable. However, the Russian government optimists more. Deputy Minister of economic development Alexei Vedev believes that in the end we have this year will emerge from the crisis and the situation will be called “plus minus zero”. And then will resume real growth. However, all these predictions hard to believe. And the main thing — the growth of poverty in our country for the last 25 years.


photo: Gennady Cherkasov

The challenge of the Russian economy is truly historic. The world economy is growing, albeit much more slowly than before, and we continue to fly into the abyss. In the I quarter GDP fell by 1.2%. Recall that last year this figure amounted to almost 4%. And what is particularly alarming: sharply increasing the number of “new” poor in 3 million people last year alone. As a result of their (that is, living below the poverty line) has already become more than 19 million

More poor, less shopping. As you know, only last year, purchasing power has fallen by almost 10%. Its decline, although at a much slower pace, continues today. Therefore, both producers and traders are in a stupor. And real wages continue to decline. Hence, purchases will be less.

It is not surprising that both domestic and foreign investors are reluctant to invest in the Russian economy.

But this, however, does not mean that at last it’s time to put a cross. Many investors believe that here don’t hurry — the situation is changing for the better.

For example, June 22, Emmanuel Quidet, President of the Franco-Russian chamber of Commerce (it exists since 1997), stated that “we will witness the gradual lifting of sanctions with Russia.”

Of course, such optimism may seem premature. But he reminded that the French Senate voted against the sanctions, which have taken European companies more than 11 billion euros, and workers — hundreds of thousands of jobs.

From a purely political assessments of what is happening in Ukraine, Mr. the Kid dodged it, but it is clear that the French businessmen working in Russia, dissatisfied with the position of Brussels. The more so, as it turned out, none of them from Russia after the announcement of the sanctions are gone and now they are the main foreign investors in our country.

To maintain the overall spirit of cooperation, the French chamber on the conference invited the Russian government forecasters. The latter does not become easy to persuade foreign investors to invest money. On the contrary, predicted not the easiest way out of the Russian economy from the current crisis.

So, Deputy Minister of economic development Alexei Vedev, though called himself a “chronic optimist”, however, stressed that the development of the economy this year will not go beyond plus or minus zero. This means that the number of sectors, such as mining, chemicals, light industry, food, will grow by 2-3%. But the rest will fall. This means that real salaries will not grow.

Why then invest in the Russian economy even friendly to the French? Vedev explained to them and all the rest: GDP will grow at 2% per year from 2017. This, of course, a little after the fall. But there is hope that there’s a structural reform that will transform the Russian economy in the investment. And the other way not. In 2020 the number of economically active population due to demographic problems to be reduced by 200-300 thousand people a year.

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