The liberation of Raqqa, a planned opposition “Democratic forces of Syria” (VTS), may lead not only to the actual defeat of ISIS, but also to the less favourable consequences. Apparently, Washington is going to drive a new wedge between the Kurds and Damascus, and at the same time to take the “capital of ISIS” at the end of the Obama presidency.
A parallel attack on Raqqa Syrian government forces and opposition groups of SDS (SDF) in the English transcription) from the looks of the “race to win”, continued for nearly a month, and the fate of the occupied LIH* the city seemed predestined. Meanwhile, expect an early release of the “ISIS capital” can hardly. Despite some weakening of the jihadist combat units, caused by fighting in neighboring Iraq, the city is still a sufficient garrison to liberation was delayed until at least autumn.
“The network has repeatedly come across pictures of Americans wearing the uniform chevrons YPG”
The difficulties encountered by the government troops moving into raqqa province, confirmed the latest news. So, according to U.K.-based Syrian Observatory for human rights”, on Monday, the militants launched a counter-offensive and drove the army of Assad outside in the same province is the town of es-Saur. In the result of this “rapid counterattack” killed 40 Syrian soldiers. This is a dubious statement, however, is confirmed by “from the field” – “media companies” affiliated with jihadists, spreading the news about the significant damage caused by government forces and Shiite militia”, the upcoming on the road Itria – raqqa, and the successful attack made on a Syrian military convoy near the oil fields As-Saura.
An additional factor that reduces the chances of government forces liberate Raqqa is the issue of Aleppo, where still tense urban fighting. For several reasons, control of Aleppo has to Damascus higher priority than unpromising the siege of thousands of the city. And hardly the army, forgetting about other areas, throw all available forces for the liberation of the capital of ISIS”. Far more likely the role of “liberators” will get the SDS, or rather the Kurdish backbone of the organization – units of national defense of Syrian Kurdistan (YPG).
The representatives of the Syrian Kurdistan has long declared willingness YPG offensive in Raqqa. First started talking about this back in January of 2015 – after the liberation of the occupied Kobani ISIS and the relative strengthening of the cantons of Syrian Kurdistan. Of course, it was about the fact that the liberation of Raqqa will be the scenario of the battle for Kobani, that is, with substantial support by U.S. aircraft and loyal parts of the Free Syrian army. However, in the fall of 2015 Colonel Steve Warren, responsible for the operation “Unwavering commitment”, said that he doubted the usefulness of the participation of YPG in the battle for Raqqa, and suggested that this task will implement another opposition ISIS and regime forces structure – the Syrian Arab coalition, a member (along with YPG) in the “umbrella” organization SDF.
At that time, the Pentagon in the person of Colonel doubted that the presence of Kurdish fighters would be appropriate on land belonging to the Arab population, however to date, the U.S. position has changed – at the end of April, after landing on the Kurdish airfield Rumeilan, SDF joined the American instructors. Most likely, they are responsible for the preparation of the “democratic forces” to liberate Raqqa, at the same time preventing any inter-ethnic clashes are repeatedly come across pictures of Americans wearing the uniform chevrons YPG.
In this context, the rumors that raqqa after his release can join the cantonal system of the Syrian Kurdistan, are quite ambiguous. It is obvious that after the main forces of the Syrian group ISIL will be discarded. SDF, and YPG will be the heroes of the day” and the actual conductors of American interests, showing an example of a credible opposition “to the regime of Bashar al-Assad.”
At the same time, the transition Raqqa under “the cantonal government” will cause significant cooling of relations between Syrian Kurdistan and the official Damascus, which will inevitably entail a variety of consequences, up to clashes between YPG and government forces.
It is impossible to exclude that rate to recreate the “Great Kurdistan” can be one of the main points of American middle East policy to be “restarted” after the presidential election. In this context, Syrian Kurdistan are likely prepared for the role of “conductor” of alleged Syrian federalization, it is beneficial to Washington.
It can be assumed that the integrity of the Syrian-Iraqi border in the next six months will be provided to US through a collaboration with completely dependent on the States of the “New Syrian army” and the troops of the Iraqi “Peshmerga”, and raqqa is liberated from the jihadist forces of the SDF by November 2016. Ideally, the “battling ISIS” should be a spectacular end to the political career of Barack Obama, and subsequent years will likely be marked by the attempt of federalization of Syria, and regardless of which candidate wins the presidential race in the United States.
As for the Russian side, she still has the ability to influence the Syrian Kurdistan and, if necessary, to mediate in the negotiations between the Kurdish leadership and Damascus to reach a compromise over the ownership of Raqqa. However, recent statements of the United States made clear that time for this is not so much.
* Organization in respect of which the court accepted entered into legal force decision on liquidation or ban the activities on the grounds stipulated by the Federal law “On countering extremist activity”Related posts: