In that case, if none of the countries of members of EU will not oppose it at the Council meeting of foreign Ministers of the EU on 24 June, the final decision will be approved at the summit on 28-29 June. Then once again we will have the opportunity to know the price of all the talk about the rejection of the policy of sanctions by individual countries concerned (the authorities) to the restoration of economic relations with Moscow.
Unfortunately, in spite of the declared policy of equality, no equality within the EU is not in sight. Key are positions in Berlin, Paris, London and, naturally, Washington as the main “politically associated” dominant partner of the EU. The decision to show the Euro-Atlantic solidarity on 21 June, one week before the scheduled summit, it is unlikely to be associated with something other than a referendum on June 23 in the UK about leaving the EU. According to recent surveys, the number of supporters of BREXIT (British exit) for over than 7 percent higher than the number of his opponents. So, it’s time to strengthen the Brussels-Washington consensus. No wonder, Barack Obama personally came in may in London to campaign against the independence of Albion from Brussels. The United States needs Britain in the EU, otherwise the influence of Paris and Berlin within the EU, and therefore their independence may substantially increase. Especially dangerous for America it is seen in the light of the presidential election in France and parliamentary in Germany, 2017, which may result in a change of political paradigm of multiculturalism, dominant in Europe since the collapse of the Soviet Union, the ideas of euroscepticism. And who wants to lose control of the Old world, especially on the eve of our own presidential election?
Therefore, with high probability, June 21 we will hear solidarity “Washington-Brussels regional Committee, continuing to accuse Moscow of all mortal sins. Single positions are” some European leaders oppose the continuation of sanctions have become a convenient excuse to get another loan or tranche from Brussels, and no more. As an example, in the case of Italy and its Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. So in the future, when another European leader (only if it’s not German Chancellor or the French President) will talk about the disagreement with the sanctions policy, keep in mind that this message is not Moscow and Brussels on the theme “give money, and then…”. So you should prepare for the fact that sanctions will live for a long time. But what is again “guilty” of Moscow?
The main condition for lifting the sanctions, many European politicians called the implementation of the Minsk agreements. Similar statements were repeatedly made by the head of European diplomacy Federica Mogherini and Frank-Walter Steinmeier. What would seem to be worth more than the views of Berlin and Brussels?
At the same time, Steinmeier back in the spring confidently declared that local elections in the Donbas must be held before mid-year, however, it was his intention, however, as well as signed assurances to President Yanukovych the day before the coup in Kiev, only virtual. To date, there are no prospects for local elections in the Donbass at least until the end of this year. Simply because of the procedural points — the need to change the Constitution, new voting laws on local elections and Amnesty and thawing of the law on “special status” in the Parliament — Kiev, even if I wanted (which is absolutely unrealistic), fail to agree on and to hold local elections in Donbas this year. And next fall should be new local elections in Ukraine. In the best case, they Minsk process and will be completed, but only if Poroshenko will change their behavior. Because under the current policy of Kiev (before the election we need to secure the region from the separatists,” Deputy Minister for ATO G. Tuck) Donbass to Ukraine will not return.
Last week in the German Bundestag held an interesting panel discussion on the topic. The initiator of the conversation was made by the left party of Germany, whose representatives have repeatedly visited the territory of the DNI, LC with humanitarian missions. The piquancy of the discussion given the presence on it the official representative of Angela Merkel in Russia and the “Eastern partnership”, the special representative of the OSCE in Germany Gernot Erler. In response to the proposal of the German government, the Ukrainian political analyst Dmitry Dzhangirov apologize to the Ukrainians for a false choice, imposed including the Cabinet Merkel, Mr. Erler only made a helpless gesture: “We can’t force Poroshenko to implement the Minsk agreements! We can only offer help”. It turns out that forcing Poroshenko are only able Americans. But they obviously don’t want to do it, preferring declarative solidarity with the need to implement the Minsk agreements to force Kiev to their practical implementation, as it was in the summer of 2015.
Conclusion of German parliamentary debate, which was agreed to by all participating MPs and experts, in addition to representative Merkel, easiest up until Kiev will not start a direct dialogue with Donetsk and Lugansk, no progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements is not expected. So, who should answer for it? Who Europe should impose sanctions for the delay of the peace process? I made a proposal to the German colleagues to impose sanctions on Poroshenko, but, seriously, why should Russia remain under EU sanctions for failure to comply with the Minsk agreements by Kiev?
Moscow is becoming increasingly difficult to blame the opposition for the peace process and the failure of the Minsk agreement, while Kiev defiantly even for Europeans torpedoes the agreement. However, the sanctions it has only a formal relationship. Until the re-election of the authorities of France and Germany in 2017 anti-Russian inertia, apparently, will continue. But then there’s another story in which the new elites of Europe will negotiate with the old elite of Russia. Until then, sanctions will be saved, but more will hit the industry and agriculture of the EU. Thus the Americans left the Europeans with their hostages — consolidated without the lifting of sanctions, Moscow has no reason to cancel and contractee, beating in the first place in Europe. After all, the most vulnerable points of the anti-Russian sanctions — is the inability to obtain cheap long-term loans (in the US) and technology (also in USA). The German Deutsche Bank, even in the case of a permit from the government of Germany will not be able to grant a loan to any Russian company, because immediately will prevent the work of its office in America. What Washington wanted Europe sanctioned itself, and to blame Russia. While we can only wait for changes this situation. And focus.
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