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Friday, March 23, 2018

Fan fight at the St. Petersburg forum

Forum 2016 will not only leave a significant mark in history, but will affect the near future, especially Russia. Its primarily a political outcome. The forum itself is a breakthrough anti-Russian embargo, to build the Western sanctions. Tellingly, he was considered not only the owners but also guests from other European countries.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker made it clear that he is ready to discuss the fate of the sanctions, with President Vladimir Putin. Ex-President Nicolas Sarkozy of France went much further and from the rostrum of the forum actually suggested the scenario of a collapse of sanctions. He said: “I am among those who believe that it is necessary to remove the sanctions, we have enough problems as it is. We can’t afford to suffer, and the strong need to reach out first.” Then politely summed up: “The strongest is Russia, and President Putin”.

You can argue about what the political weight of Sarkozy in France and in Europe. You like this immediately made the Russian Minister of economic development Alexei Ulyukayev, to delve into the “little boy’s” dispute about who started it and who first have to finish waving sanctions. You can talk as head of the Kremlin administration Sergei Ivanov, who surprised by his statement: “Personally, I would want sanctions against us lasted longer, but not quickly been removed”.

Each of these statements there is reason. At least crafty. Ivanov, for example, justifies his “personal opinion” that now two-thirds of budget revenues — not oil and gas, the economy is the growth of the industries such as chemical, growing at 30-35% per year. “And all this largely thanks to the sanctions.”

So, but not quite. You should pay attention to the numbers that are brought to the forum the first Deputy Minister of economic development Alexei Likhachev: at the end of 4 months, Russia has seen a fivefold increase agricultural exports. And according to the Ministry of agriculture of the USA published on 10 June, Russia became the world leader in wheat exports, ahead of both Canada and the United States.

What is named Likhachev fantastic growth? Neither sanctions nor contractee nothing to do with it. The main factor is the depreciation of the rouble that occurred in 2014-2015. It delayed the devaluation effect ensured the growth of non-oil exports. If the same situation to look from the other side, it turns out that the devaluation of the rouble protects our farmers from imports.

In other words, the administrative impact of the Russian counter-sanctions should not be overestimated. If the line to finish, then undo Russian counter-sanctions do not affect either the growth of exports of chemical products nor in the domestic agricultural growth that will protect the import has risen in price in relation to rouble the dollar.

So statements and speaker, and Ivanov is more of a fan fight. The main thing — football is that, as shown by the SPIEF, the pendulum has swung from sanctions. In the interests of Russia (you can weigh who — Europe or the us is more profitable, but the fact that it is in our strategic interests that would on this occasion have spoken to the head of the presidential administration, indisputable) to push him in the opposite direction from the sanctions side.

On the subject of unraveling the tangle of sanctions spoke from the rostrum of the forum, and Vladimir Putin. Sarkozy’s address, he commented: “I Think his proposal is constructive, and would have to pay attention.” “We are, as we say in the people, evil does not hold and ready to meet our partners, but this may not be a one-sided game,” the position is quite clear.

SPIEF brought a particular anticyclonic result. The Prime Minister of Italy Matteo Renzi said: “Italy’s Position is very simple. Sanctions are not automatically renewed, as if it were business as usual. I can confirm that at the next meeting a meeting of ambassadors in Brussels, we will ask for sanctions at this meeting there were discussions that they were not automatically extended and to be able to know at what stage is the implementation of the Minsk agreements”. The non-renewal of sanctions automatically is already a reality.

The main thing that made the SPIEF-2016, he swung the fence sanctions.

Sanctions . Chronicle of events

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