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Monday, December 5, 2016

Break up the Turkey


Break up the Turkey? This question, asked in different variations, sometimes with the addition at the beginning of the interrogative pronoun “when” often comes through in the national media when discussing the current situation in the Republic of Turkey. After the incident on 24 November, 2015 the underlying expectation of disaster at the South, demonstrated an independent hot heads, comparable only with their impatience over the fact that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan resign?

It just so happened that the public, for the most part, the process with the sign “minus” are interested in much more than those with the plus sign. Disintegration attracted much more attention than the Union. When you break up Belgium into Flanders and Wallonia? Will the Kingdom from the European Union? Will break away from her Scotland? Whether to keep Catalonia part of Spain? Is there a future of Schengen? And anyway, how long live together “United family of the peoples”, United European Union?

However, widely spread in Russia “negative interest” to the events in Turkey has a fundamentally different nature. It is fair revanchist in nature and caused by the severe crisis in relations between the two countries.

Discussion on possibility of disintegration of Turkey, for all its fabulousness to the present time, is still not out of nowhere. The current situation in the country with internal security and terrorism have reached a qualitatively new, unprecedented in the Republican history from the point of view of the scale of the loss of the warring parties — government forces and the Kurdistan workers ‘ party (PKK) and the nature of the collisions.

Since the peace process with the PKK was last year curtailed, the count of casualties among military forces and the civilian population of Turkey is spinning continuously, and their total number is very close to a thousand people, and this is without counting the wounded.

The Kurdistan workers ‘ party, fighting not with the gendarmerie, and the regular and special units of the Turkish Armed forces, despite the asymmetry of their loss of damage not only stops, but, on the contrary, significantly aktiviziruyutsya.

However, it is not only and not so much in losses: most importantly, terrorism descended from the mountains in towns and cities and is steadily expanding its geography. Bureaucratic capital Ankara and the business — Istanbul, Turkey last year began on a regular basis subjected to major terrorist attacks. To areas it has not yet reached, however, as shown by recent terrorist attacks in the Istanbul areas of Taksim and Sultanahmet, the foreign guests were included in the list of potential targets of terrorists, that still was not.

Even after one year freeze in the refrigerator,” the peace process with the Kurds, no one can really explain who it there, in fact, “put”. Who outsmarted whom? The Kurdistan workers ‘ party President Erdogan, when he used peaceful respite to build its capacity? Or, following not less common in Turkey point, — R. T. Erdogan, who turned the peace process to raise the rating of his party in the parliamentary elections at the expense of the nationalist electorate?

Whatever it was, it becomes clear that the current war has been ongoing for survival, and a dialogue with the Kurdistan workers party to lead the country no one else. None of the parliamentary parties of sound mind and sober memory will not do. And the adoption of the constitutional amendments on the lifting of parliamentary immunity on charges of aiding terrorism means that the Kurdish Party democracy peoples in the Majlis in the near future may simply not be available. Alternative political forces with the Kurdish agenda in its program in the country, and its appearance is not expected.

So going forward, no matter what the loss, and use any methods of the Kurdistan workers ‘ party becomes the exclusive representative of the Kurdish minority of the country, which, according to various estimates, has up to 20% of the population. This, of course, does not mean that all Kurds are by definition supporters of the PKK and support terror.

However, looking to the emerging Kurdish autonomy in Iraq and Syria, the logical question is: why the Kurds of Turkey should be satisfied with existing rights and not ask for more? And also is it possible to get more rights within the existing in the Republic, since its Declaration in 1923, the unitary model is “one nation, one flag, one homeland, one state”? Don’t want to bore the readers an in-depth reasoning on this subject and will take the liberty just to answer your last question — no, impossible!

But to create their own autonomy, Turkish Kurds, as opposed to combat-ready and raked the regular army, the second largest in NATO, without the support of leading international players, the US and the EU, can not physically. The only chance of terrorists is to destabilize the situation in the country to such an extent that the external intervention of the West and raising parties in the corners will be the only way to stabilize the situation and to prevent the final slide of Turkey into chaos.

And anyway, who in the region except the Kurds, of course, you need a “great Kurdistan”? The question is not accidental in the light of which began to sound votes that in place of the “Arab spring” sweeping the Kurdish “off season”.

Imagine a hypothetical scenario of the emergence of a unified Kurdish state in the place of the existing de facto autonomy in Iraq and Syria, as well as covered the anti-terrorist operation in the South-Eastern provinces of Turkey. Once seen that it would be a kind of “second Israel” in the region, that is, the area surrounded by a ring of enemies — Arabs, Turks and Persians, are rightly fear for their territorial integrity.

But in the case of Israel, which became one of the most advanced, on a range of characteristics, States of the world, the roots of success are clear. The Jewish people were able not only to fight, but in parallel, relying on their millennial roots and traditions, to engage in public construction.

In the case of Kurdistan, while existing only on the conspiracy cards, the so-called greater Middle East… Where is the guarantee that he will not be at the same time and the “second Palestine” — quasiorthogonal demonstrated its complete failure in attempts to create an independent state, despite the huge cash infusion by foreign sponsors? What is known about the potential of the Kurds in peacetime, when it will be necessary to put aside the guns and bombs and rebuild the country? Of course, there is a ten-year experience of existence of the Kurdish autonomy in Iraq, but the autonomy of the highly controversial political background is one thing, but a stable independent state is still more… in addition, the Kurds inhabit Iraq, Syria, Turkey and Iran, even ethnically, and come from a common root, but are still numerous and scattered tribes, not one people.

And again: to the disintegration of Turkey, on the potential threat which they even say in the country, has become a reality, the Kurdistan workers ‘ party needs to shake the situation, to pure vnutriserdecna problem has become a global threat.

This is how would look like such a Turkey? And if you start a full-scale, bloody civil war, then where will a new wave now of Turkish refugees? In Europe? Or, maybe, in Russia — in the Caucasus?

No matter how annoy Russia’s President Erdogan and what would now be the relationship may be between our countries at the highest political level, the processes taking place in its southern neighbor, sober people nothing but growing concerns, should not be.

Diplomats in official rhetoric often used the classical formula of “we need a stable and predictable partner”, which laid the deepest sense. Of course, its unpredictability, the Turkish leadership in November last year, our country has clearly demonstrated, causing, in the words of Putin, “the stab in the back” of Russia. However, in his own words, recently spoken in Greece, about the desire to resume relations with Turkey” and “unprecedented nature of Russian-Turkish friendship” is clearly visible pragmatism of the Russian leadership. Desire, contrary to the bloodthirsty hotheads, to see in the South though not so close as it was until recently, a friend, at least, stable neighbor… the Consequences of destabilization of the 80-million-strong Turkey can be much more dramatic than we can even begin to imagine now.

The aggravation of relations with Turkey. Chronicle of events

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