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Thursday, December 8, 2016

The second indexation of pensions has become a Megillah


15 June sounded anxious, like a distant clap of thunder, the news media reported that the Ministry of Finance wants in 2017 to abandon the indexation of pensions to inflation. This proposal has not been discussed by the government, but stated at the meeting on the draft three-year budget. He this year will be submitted to the Duma only to 1 November, and while the discussion is still there.


photo: Alex geldings

But shrill the issue of indexation of pensions this year to be closed is impossible, moreover it is directly linked with whether and what exactly will be indexed in the next year.

Recall sad. In 2015, inflation, according to Rosstat, at 12.9%, and pensions indexed from 1 February 2016 to 4% and only retirees. The effect of rules of the pension legislation requiring mandatory indexation of pensions to the level of inflation achieved, one year suspended.

“Just no money” — so lucidly explained the recent situation, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev.

But the law which defines the procedure of indexation of pensions this year, adopted by the Duma in late 2015, said: another adjustment of pensions after the 4%, “based on the results of the first half of 2016, taking into account the situation prevailing in the economy and social sphere”, and that decision must be made “Federal law”!

How to understand “is”, but “given the situation”? The second indexation will, but not before July (“first half”) and it is unknown to what extent?

It was understood that members. But in the financial-economic bloc of the government is interpreted differently: “there will be money — will index again, will not — will not index”.

By the way, that’s what was written in the draft of the law about the procedure for indexation of pensions in 2016, the government submitted to the Duma in the fall of last year: the pension again “can be increased based on the Federal budget and the budget of the Pension Fund of the Russian Federation,” the document said. But in the process of working on the bill in the Duma, a compromise was reached between the government and going to elections deputies, the compromise that was ambiguous in the above formula. The categorical requirement of the second indexing MPs to defend failed in battles with the Ministry of Finance they are still midget that against a heavyweight boxer is, alas, the place of Parliament in our political system…


photo: Gennady Cherkasov

And here the situation is as if suspended. And the parties stand in his way: one argues that “for the second indexing must be, the only question is the size and duration” and the other “second indexing may not hold”.

“In the first half of the year, the government will examine the issue and decide,” confirmed “MK” in the press service of Vice Prime Minister Olga Golodets (the social block of the government, the second indexing is trying to defend). “Most likely, will still be indexed, but the full — to reach those most at 12.9% inflation by the end of 2015 — or partial again, there is no clarity,” — said the “MK” a source in the state Duma. In any case, apparently not earlier than October-November, some believe, even if you announce it early: the budget performance in the first half of let down to the end of the summer, the Duma goes on the campaign on 24 June and will meet again only in mid-October…

Does this mean that no way if you wish to make a gift to pensioners before the election, no?

Recently, a law was passed that allows the government to 1 November 2016 to independently make changes to the budget in coordination with a specially established Commission of the state Duma deputies and senators. But it prohibits to make so changes to the budget if they relate to “normative obligations”, and “pensions are publicly-regulatory obligations,” said the “MK” member of the Committee on budget and taxes Oksana Dmitrieva (“CP”). But she is sure that “the deputies of this convocation, whose powers end only since the beginning of work of the Duma of new convocation could be held on one day and vote for indexing.

But the government, then the later the better: according to preliminary calculations, if to index pensions in September at 8%, would require 130 billion. But if November is two times less… besides, according to the Ministry of Finance, within 5 months of 2016, the average price of URALS oil amounted to 36 dollars per barrel, the budget is formed proceeding from the prices of 50 dollars per barrel, the revenues from the oil and gas sector of the economy has not reached 30%, and revenues from non-oil sector — 40% of the planned level. And the more you raise the retirement now, the more money is needed for indexation in accordance with inflation in the budget for next year, if she is not to refuse: to index-you’ll have more from base…

Complex political, economic solitaire now power. But what lay retired with a pension in 13 000, even solitaire to name it is impossible.

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