A barrel of “black gold” that all sorts of truths and untruths have grown to $50 may jump to the end of the year nearly doubled. This prediction not only of domestic experts, which is often called overly optimistic, but Western analysts. The latter is a fundamental proof that oil will rise in price. According to the US Department of energy, reserves in the state again reduced, and production ceased to grow. In this case, the price of oil, which provides the Russian government for the next year at $40 per barrel is not even optimistic, and pessimistic.
Literally in January experts predicted Russia to an end. Indeed, a barrel of oil cost $28 — that is about the same as in December 1999, when the country began to get out of the next crisis.
On the one hand a good idea — back in March 1999 “a barrel” offered only $11. But compared to the summer of 2014 — a complete failure. Two years ago a barrel was $125.
Obviously, fall into the abyss. But now the “black gold” is in the range of $50. Of course, doubling is not assumed, but something to strive for.
Moreover, there is every reason to think so. Commercial oil stocks in the US fell last week by nearly a million barrels. They are reduced for several months. As the oil production of all American companies.
In addition, according to the forecast of the International energy Agency, global oil demand in 2016 will grow by 100 thousand barrels per day. Also, according to the June forecast of the Agency, in 2016 in countries that are not members of OPEC will be a sharp decline in production. Not to mention the cartel. OPEC production in may fell by 110 thousand barrels per day (the role played by the strikes in Nigeria).
According to experts, the pace, and if you count from January, when a barrel fell below $27 by the end of the year, its price could reach the sacred mark of $70 and even it to exceed.
For Russia, it will save the budget. This year the Treasury deficit may reach 3 trillion rubles. But the budget is based of $50. If prices increase to $70, then we will achieve a positive result. Then it will be possible to hold the indexation of pensions in line with inflation, to maintain other social benefits, especially because the Central Bank has promised to bring down inflation by the end of 2017 to 4%.Related posts: