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Wednesday, October 26, 2016

The crisis of justice

The current estimate of the crisis state of the Russians is a never — ending repetition of the economic terms: economic recession, inflation, devaluation, crisis. And then the flow of disappointing numbers about GDP. Current revenues 15.4% below last year and the year 2015 was declared by our economists as critical. If the situation will not change dramatically, warns audit chamber, the budget for the year will miss at least 2 trillion rubles. But that being said, the thunder is in the heavens and what is below?

So, in April of this year, according to the poll, 77% of respondents reported the continued growth of prices for vegetables and fruits, the growth of prices for meat and now record 68% of respondents completing the three most expensive products dairy products. Rising prices, according to 70% of those surveyed, the national average rose by the end of 2015 of 4.6%. In the same period, the salaries of the leadership of the Central Bank increased on average by 18%. In 2015, the costs of labor 18 people from the senior management of the Bank except for the Chairman amounted to 317,8 million rubles., in other words, each received 17.7 million RUB.

Grew last year and the income of the members of the Cabinet of Ministers (24 of 30). If we exclude from consideration the first Vice-Premier Igor Shuvalov, Minister for relations with open government Mikhail Abyzov, head of the Ministry for North Caucasus Affairs Lev Kuznetsov, the Minister of sport Mutko, then the income of the Minister will average 20%. Shuvalov last year, revenues grew by 10.5%, in Kuznetsov and Mutko about 2 times, Abyzov revenue in 2015 amounted to 455 million rubles.

Of course, that inflation depends not only on the salaries of high-ranking officials. Is affected by combination of factors: economy under sanctions, oil prices jump, competition in the commodities market increased. All the way. But the above figures confirm the main thing — that is, the stratification of society at a rapid pace, and the number of people below the poverty line, today almost 20 million people.

Today we are experiencing a profound crisis of justice: the poor continue to become poorer, the rich, despite all the sanctions, non-stop rich. In the usual came into common use, terms such as mass poverty. The stratification of society is materialization of the idea of its split and social discord.

The main reason for that increasing trouble people think it’s inflation. The Central Bank head Nabiullina blamed including the Russians, and specifically their wages. Directly not talk about it, preferring moderate formulations. “Inflation risks remain elevated. They are associated primarily with the slow decline in inflation expectations and ambiguity about the necessary changes in the dynamics of nominal wages, the uncertainty of the parameters of the further indexation of salaries and pensions”.

Increased attention to the salaries of the Central Bank, its main function is to protect and ensure the stability of the ruble, seems unconvincing. In fact, the Central Bank is trying to shift responsibility for rising prices on other instances, such as the government. Not coincidentally, the Central Bank repeatedly stressed that adaptation to the situation will be better, if the financial regulator and the Cabinet of Ministers will coordinate their actions in matters of economic policy and particularly in matters of pensions and salaries.

Economic bloc of the government is engaged in management of the economy by writing endless plans and forecasts of development of the country, as conversations of an infinite number of economists with 2000 on the mandatory development of small business, which for the Russian economy a lifeline. Although the results of these ranting is disappointing. Today the share of small business in the total volume of the economy is not more than 1%. In other words, small business as there was no and no.

The question is essentially — what to do? The answer is to immediately change and update the control system.

The flaw of time — the modern Russian elite born of thieving Russian capitalism. We say that now the main evil, to represent the national threat is corruption. I’m not going to dispute the obvious: corruption is the evil of universal scale, but… And this But svergnutomu for Russia: its evil, the evil is historical, widespread theft. That’s what should be addressed first. Uttering the word “corruption”, we usually throws back her head, because in the conventional sense she is up there. Can’t argue with that, but open your eyes and you will see theft everywhere, from the counters in gas stations until the receipts for payment of utility bills and price tags in all stores. The whole system of construction — is, in fact, an organised system of fraud and theft.

In the ‘ 90s instead of fighting against stealing, we have embodied the idea of privatization, which has reduced the scale of the theft, and threw open the door of the market, which “will regulate everything.” And instead of growth we have lost all that made up earlier and fell back in its development for at least 25 years ago. The tragedy of the reformers is not that they chose the wrong model of development of the country, came to power people who want to rule but do not know how to do it, people with secondary, but no secondary education. It was a short “Race blind.” With all her strength and knowledge they used not to develop the country, and the destruction of “trash scoop” as they dubbed the Soviet era.

And somewhere in 1994, in recognition of Gaidar. The process is completed, we won, faith in socialism and its alleged capabilities are no more.” Rejuvenation of the power — process is ambiguous. It is impossible to rule such a huge country as Russia, having no experience of management. And therefore the market, which was “all adjust” failed.

That’s where and when a destruction of justice. The significance of the Russian capitalist today is not determined by the scale they created, and the value of the stolen and very often translated in the offshore.

The authorities lost the skills of foresight. And a series of long-term, and in fact short-term development plans and remained a paper locks.

First, the development plan until 2018, then 2020, now talking about the plan until 2030.

Finally the expected happened — may 25, going to the Presidium of the presidential economic Council (the previous meeting was in 2013). The Council’s goal is to prepare a new strategy of development of Russia till 2025.

The President of the Council stressed that all participants must forget about ideological differences, not to isolate themselves within the framework of any theoretical concepts, and practice questions. There is no monopoly on the truth in economic discussions should not be. In other words, Stolypin led by Sergei Glazyev and Boris Titov on the one hand and on the other kudryntsi should unite their efforts to build a concept for the economic future of the country.

The Council listened to the program of the Stolypin club, as a message about the disagreements with the government. Stolypins say that now in the country the systemic crisis that occurred before the fall in oil prices.

The stagnation of the economy started in 2012, and in the first quarter of 2013, the GDP growth compared to the same period of the previous year decreased from 5.3% to 0.6%, which is greater than the fall in GDP growth in the first quarter of 2015. “The situation was not timely noticed, and budget planning was continued without regard to the incident of the falling rate of GDP.

One should not overestimate the results of the meeting of the Presidium of the economic Council. Significant decisions the Council has not yet adopted. He confirmed that the practice of challenging the forecasts continues. One thing is important: these persons, claiming to influence the decisions of the Presidium. On the one hand, that the Stolypin club, represented by Glazyev and Titov. On the other hand it received the post of Deputy Chairman of the presidential economic Council Alexei Kudrin. And somewhere in the middle- the Minister of economic development Ulyukayev, who does not have full consent of neither the Stolypin club, nor with Kudrin.

The President follows its course even those years when he took the presidency. Then he instructed the Minister of Finance Kudrin and Minister of economic development Gref to develop each individual program of economic development of the country. And that was done. The President expressed his essence as a typical representative of the zodiac sign Libra. He read both programs, then invited Kudrin and Gref and said: “Dear colleagues, you have two days to put in front of me a unified program of economic development of the country.”

Something similar will happen now. As Kudrin and the Glazyev, Ulyukaev Titov and parties to the controversy — are waiting for the same final: here are a week, colleagues to put in front of me the programme for the development of the economy, which will unite the country, not to sow discord and turn the whole situation in a tug of war. I need a program that creates unity, not discord, ostensibly emphasizing the individuality of the dominant personalities in power. In conclusion, the phrase is “learn to negotiate, gentlemen.” This is speculation, but close to the truth.

And to summarize, it should be said: according to the accounting chamber, in the first quarter of 2016, a turnaround plan was implemented in less than 50% compared to the plan laid down in the guidelines. But the degree of mandatory execution of anti-crisis plan disparate in terms of the mandatory execution of the predicted development of the economy, which are announced at the meeting of the Presidium of the presidential economic Council… the Failure of the bailout plan is another confirmation that any rules of discipline in our government are not working. Why should not as an instant reaction of the authorities the punishment for apparent failure to perform their duties of government officials?

For the first time, Mr President, You used harsh disciplinary norm for the failure to launch a spacecraft to the cosmodrome “East”, and gave its decision public, which caused an immediate reaction in the world of officials — he shuddered. But you must admit — it happened because You were there. And if You weren’t there, believe me, nothing would have happened. “Think of it, the trigger snapped. Yes, not only do we have them plucked,” like that would react the spaceport and higher companions. The “manual control”, in which You led the country, forced step. But he not only demonstrates the effectiveness of actions in which You participate, but also reduces the responsibility of the team, a role which goes into the concept in the wings.

Kudrin’s return to big politics — presidential significant step, but it is clear that Medvedev, who at the time was removed Kudrin, and then demonstrated the administrative impotence of his government, will be made without joy.

Hasn’t happened yet Presidium meeting of the presidential economic Council, but its members already agree that the growth rate of 4% is achievable only after 2018. That is, have not yet started to do anything, and has already announced a break of two years.

The base forecast of the government — the decline slowed to 0.2% in 2016, in 2019 the growth will be 2.2 percent. The acceleration of growth will be in 2019 to 4.5%. The target is the forecast of the Ministry of economic development. The Ministry of Finance in the inertial scenario promises within 15 months, the growth of 1-1. 3% per year without reform, and rising oil prices.

At the meetings of the Presidium of the economic Council assume the presence of members of the Valdai forum and the Stolypin club. As they say, the willing “to mislead the brains of people” beyond measure, and to answer for the results no one.

Justice, as the dominant resource, unites the nation. It is opposed to schism, it begins to triumph, the principle of equality, availability of power in relation to people understanding the power that her support is the people. The government was not against the people, not over them, closer to heaven, and is its continuation. And power, have lost this understanding, it ceases to be meaningful since losing the skill of rallying, uniting the people. And it is always the beginning of the split. And the main reason of loss of fairness at all times and everywhere was the division of society and the disintegration of the country.

Because if we are United, we are invincible.

Financial crisis. Chronicle of events

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