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Sunday, October 23, 2016

In “the Russian takeover of the Baltic States” nobody believes, except the Baltic States

Russia could take the Baltic States in three days. Sure the Pentagon and NATO declare their intention to “protect “the Eastern frontier”. Statements about a possible Russian takeover of the Baltic States sound a long time, and after the Crimean events the stream has only increased. Do Western politicians and the military themselves believe that Russia need some reason the Baltic States?

The assistant Deputy Minister of defence of the USA Michael carpenter at the hearings in the Senate foreign relations Committee said yesterday that Russia is now able to capture Tallinn and Riga for 60 hours. So he confirmed the February report of the American analytical center Rand Corporation outlining and justification of such assessments. However, by 2017, says the carpenter, when the US stationed on the Eastern flank of NATO for more forces in the size of the armored brigade combat teams, the security situation will improve, although Russia remains the geographical advantage.

“It is a political order to create a simulation of what Russia is a threat and the Baltic countries can give up their independence

“If Russia decides to launch aggression in the Baltic States, it will have a distinct advantage in time and distance, says carpenter. – We are trying… to deploy troops and equipment to first be able to deter Russian aggression.”

In the words of the Pentagon spokesman was immediately responded to by the NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who assured that the Alliance is capable and ready to defend all allies against any threats, and it is also the reason why we are adapting our organization to the defense.” The Secretary General stressed that NATO has already carried out major strengthening of defence since the cold war in response to the growing influence of Russia.

In Moscow do not get tired to refute such statements. Earlier in the week the Minister of foreign Affairs of Russia Sergey Lavrov spoke about the lack of threats in the Baltic sea region that would justify its militarization. Lavrov said earlier that the policy on the “containment” of Russia, it’s time to give up and hand it to the archives of history, and the leadership of NATO and several European countries inflates the myth of “Russian threat”.

Who wants war?

In the Baltic countries regularly heard the accusations against Moscow for “annexation” of Crimea and “invasion” in the Donbass. Prominent political and public figures of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia has repeatedly expressed “forecasts” that Russia is preparing an attack on the Baltic States. Similar statements were made to the Crimean events. In 2013 the President of Estonia Toomas Hendrik Ilves complained that “we live in a world of eternal peace”. “Now we have to exercise “West-2013″, under which Russia will continue the seizure of the Baltic States”, – Ilves warned.

In the republics not only talking about a possible aggression, but also take some actions. Last spring the Lithuanian Parliament re-introduced universal conscription, which was abolished in 2008. And in Latvia developed instructions about the behavior of the population during the war and the invasion of the country.

Member of the management Board of the Estonian International centre for defense and security Martin Hurt in an interview with the Western media have suggested that any Russian military exercises near NATO’s borders actually may be part of the strategy for a quick attack on the Baltic States. “The likelihood of success of such attacks much more than the scenario of hybrid war, which we saw in Crimea,” said Hurt.

About the ability of Russia to occupy the Baltic States in two days last spring at the NATO conference “Our security,” said Czech General Peter Paul. He explained that Russia can make the decision about the seizure in a matter of hours, while NATO countries agree on a common position will take a long time.

The exception against this background, the votes were only a position of the President of Czech Republic Milos Zeman. He expressed strong confidence in the absence of Moscow’s plans for the military occupation of the Baltic countries, because Putin is not suicidal and understands the consequences of such attacks”.

If Russia needs the Baltic States?

Scientific Director of the Valdai discussion club” Fyodor Lukyanov kind of agree with your assessment that, from the point of view of a hypothetical military scenario, Russia simply on the basis of military capabilities able to take control of the Baltic States in 60 hours, but this can happen only “under unclear circumstances”. “The Baltic States are afraid that, without a doubt. They imagine the geopolitical environment in which we live,” – said Lukyanov newspaper VIEW.

As for the opinion in Europe and in NATO, it is on this account different. “In some Eastern European countries believe that it is possible. There are alarmists, that if you don’t believe in the high probability of this scenario, but I think – especially the military – that such a scenario must be borne in mind and should be ready. In countries that traditionally belong to the Russian threat without much interest, like the South of Europe, there do not believe it and not really participating in this discussion because it is of little concern,” – said the analyst.

Deputy Chairman of the Committee on human rights and public Affairs Committee of Saeima, member of PACE Boris Tsilevich notes that the events in Crimea and Donbass was “a precedent” that has reinforced the concern of some. “The attitude of virtually all European States to these events are well known, but this whole “polite people” and other things… it’s Hard to deny that Russia played a role in these events,” said Tsilevich newspaper VIEW.

Ahead of elections

The President of the American Center for global interests (Center on Global Interests) in Washington, the political analyst Nikolai Zlobin said in an interview with the newspaper VIEW that any statements made by us officials, are partly political in nature. Especially on the eve of elections.

“Hardly anyone believes that Russia will attack the Baltic States. This is a purely theoretical scenario, saying that if they attack, then so be it. The key word here is “if”. The conclusion from this follows: EU countries, give us more money”, – said the source. – Now in the process of formation of the future political configuration and the redistribution of Finance. The Pentagon and receives the largest share of the American budget, but you always want more. The more that Obama has significantly reduced the spending on weapons, which angered the military industrial complex and the military.”

On the other hand, this is a statement that Washington wants allies show their view on the situation. “The United States would like to see European countries increased their share in the funding of NATO. It is known that now NATO is funded disproportionately, many EU countries simply do not fulfill their obligations. The Baltic States, in turn, is a good example,” added the analyst.

He also noted that the United States are subject to enormous lobbying different countries. “In these statements there is an element of lobbying of representatives of the Baltic countries. All countries try to influence US policy. In White house there are queues of people who want to explain to Washington how to act in the world. This is a normal political situation in the US, all got used to it”, – summed up Nikolai Zlobin.


Estonian human rights activist Dmitry Linter sure that the purpose of the statements about “occupation” of the Baltic States and the like – to create a hysteria against Russia. “This injection aims at obtaining military budgets, creating a zone of instability around the Russian Federation and undermining of Russia’s relations with the European Union,” he told the newspaper VIEW.

In reality, people who believe that Russia is planning to attack the Baltic States, one. “Basically, it is a political order caused by the need to create a simulation of what Russia is a threat and the Baltic countries can give up their independence,” he said.

Despite the absurdity of such statements, they really help to justify the presence in the Baltic States of NATO troops on what is done the calculation. Linter says: those who opposed the strengthening of NATO, are having a hard time. “Yesterday in Tallinn held a protest picket at the Polish Embassy, associated with NATO expansion and with the intervention of NATO in the activity of public organizations. The picket was disrupted: the police found the organizer and detained him,” he says.

Linter also notes that in the Baltic countries, Russia has someone to protect. “Then for decades, there is the Institute of statelessness and is the destruction of the rights of Russian-speaking population. And Russia needs to use mechanisms, including legal property, to protect compatriots more actively”, – he stressed. At the moment Moscow has a strategic line, unfortunately, no, said the activist. “It would be useful to create a structure that would deal with compatriots around the world – not just in the Ministry but a separate government, with significant powers and funding,” he said.

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