Experts have analyzed, as it might leak military conflict between Russia and NATO over the Baltic States
8 Dec 2010, 21:15
Text: Andrew Carvers
The disclosure of WikiLeaks documents about the plans to defend the Baltic States against the “Russian aggression” raised the question of how real such a scenario. VZGLYAD asked the experts about how to operate the Russian army for the performance of a hypothetical order for the operation against the Baltic countries.
The message is ready on the protection of Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia and Poland from Russian aggression, prepared by the staffs of NATO, was another drain portion of American diplomatic correspondence by the WikiLeaks website. In Russia, the information attracted much attention. According to Russia’s Ambassador to NATO, Dmitry Rogozin, she can’t cause us issues.”
According to published documents, U.S. and German ambassadors to NATO Ivo Daalder and Ulrich Brandenburg a year ago, informed the Secretary General of the Alliance Anders Fogh Rasmussen and the leadership of the Baltic countries on the decision to spread to the neighbouring countries action plan Eagle Guardian (“eagle-defender”) of emergency military protection of Poland. Now in terms of prescribed protection from attack on Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. In this scenario, NATO intends to propose to the Baltic nine divisions from the US, UK, Germany and Poland. Ports in Germany and Poland will have to take Marines and warships from the US and the UK. The proposal to expand the Eagle Guardian plan belongs to Germany. The idea of secretly endorsed the NATO Committee on 22 January this year.
Military analysts believe that the plan of the Russian offensive in the Baltic States, perhaps, is seen in the Russian headquarters. The Russian command has to be ready for any scenarios, including a possible attack by NATO troops on Russian territory, and in this case it is necessary to consider and plans of counterattack that will have on the territory of Lithuania, Latvia and Estonia.
However, the President of the Academy of geopolitical problems the General-the Colonel in resignation Leonid Ivashov is configured on this occasion deeply skeptical. He recalled that the plans to seize the Baltic States from Russia.
“If someone does and wants, and then we capture and defend nothing. Especially in the Baltic area. From the Kaliningrad group nothing left. There are two brigades of the Leningrad military district”, – Ivashov said the newspaper VIEW, adding that the Russian army in this direction will only be able to fight defensive actions.
As for NATO, then, according to Ivashov, the Baltic Alliance of vengeance develops its activity. The Baltic States have an obligation to provide its territory for operations for all NATO troops, and in response, the Alliance is obliged to protect them. Ivashov recalled that four years ago at his school commented on the scenario, the actions of NATO troops in case of aggravation of the situation around the Kaliningrad region and in the region as a whole. According to this approved plan in NATO exercises and command-staff training.
In turn, the first Vice-President of Academy of geopolitical problems Konstantin Sivkov believes that this operation is possible only within a large, that is, the Third world war. He pointed out that NATO as a military organization is obliged to conduct military planning for different variants of the situation, including if you have to solve the task of protecting the operating direction, which is the Baltic States. “Never, under any circumstances, when NATO should protect the Baltics from Russia, the situation is impossible outside the context of a major war. Just from the bulldozer to fight for the Baltic States is nonsense,” – said the newspaper VIEW Sivkov.
However, if hypothetically to assume that the Russian military has set the task to conduct combat actions in the Baltic area, they will need the help of troops of Belarus and other States – participants of the Organization of collective security Treaty (ODCD). The CSTO comprises Russia, Armenia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan.
This is possible, believes Sivkov, only in the conditions of world war I, when Russia – for example, in Alliance with China and several other countries will enter into armed confrontation with the West. Events in the Baltic States can be one of the regional wars in the Third world scale. “That’s one of the directions of this regional war, perhaps, that before the armed group of the Russian troops will stand offensive task in the Baltic direction”, – said the expert.
Nine infantry divisions of NATO, as recalled by Sivkov, corresponds to the 120-strong group of troops. In this case, Russia must have a three-fold superiority of the order of 20-30 divisions, that is 200 to 300-strong group. However, Russia can last more than 150 thousand soldiers, if they quickly focus on the most important operating areas. Do in case of punching holes in their defense and a counteroffensive. “This is absolutely speculative arguments that are not attached to anything,” – said Sivkov, adding that one of the crucial parts to play air superiority.
In the case of successful suppression of enemy aircraft Russia will be able to solve tasks with a force of 5-6 divisions. Otherwise it will be impossible to “normal attack”. “A lot of different conditions,” – said Sivkov, adding that the events can unfold according to the Bosnian scenario, when creating many small centers of resistance with which regular units would be difficult to handle.
Former Deputy defense Minister of Belarus in 1991 – head of the Vilnius garrison of the Soviet army General Vladimir Uskhopchik agree with the experts that Russia will never attack on the Baltic States. “The Soviet Union has gone down in history, and return, probably, never will be. On the contrary, Russia is building now with the Baltic States economic relations”, – said Uskhopchik the newspaper VIEW. We will remind that in Lithuania General Uskhopchyk is accused of organizing an armed attempt of the restoration of the Soviet regime on 13 January 1991, during which killed at least 13 people, and still demanding his extradition from the authorities of Belarus.
As for the plan Eagle Guardian, the Uskhopchik said it is most likely his existence as “NATO sees Russia as the real enemy, and do not need to hide.” However, he reminded that the Russian military doctrine is defensive in nature.
If theoretically imagine a situation of the conflict of the Baltic countries and Russia, Moscow would have to create a huge group of forces, in assessing the size of which Uskhopchik fully agree with the assessments Sivkova. Crossing the borders with tanks and other military equipment, according to Vladimir Uskhopchik, would be preceded by a positional strikes, special operations and sabotage by disabling ports, airfields, and other infrastructure.
“The armed forces in the Baltic States with disproportionate military capabilities of Russia. But they are members of NATO, so actually the ratio is different. In case of danger will be created grouping of the NATO in the Baltic sea, etc.,” said the man pretty well.
Moreover, the former Deputy Minister reminded that within the Baltic republics a large proportion of Russian-speaking population in Latvia and of those 40%, and Lithuania – 25%, so any military action would immediately sacrifice, and among this part of population. “It is not necessary to think about military action. We should be friends” – summed up Uladzimir Uskhopchyk.
Pavel Salin, Director of the Center for political studies, Financial University under the government of
In the Baltic elites firmly stuck in my head the idea that Russia intends to restore the Soviet Union by force. Read more.