The ice was broken, gentlemen of the jury? The upper house of the French Parliament overwhelmingly adopted a resolution calling for a gradual lifting of sanctions against Russia. Monday’s vote is purely Advisory in nature – but the recommendations, as you know, you can listen, or not. But I would still have regarded the news from Paris as a very important symbolic victory for Russian diplomacy, as confirmation of the correctness of the current tactical course of Moscow.
Now in front of our diplomacy in all growth there was a new goal: to convert their symbolic victory in the practical, political and economic achievements, in the real beginning of a process of gradual lifting of sanctions.
Just say: guarantee that we will succeed, no. Factors that play not in favor of Moscow, is still very, very much. But the chances of success in the anticyclonic direction before Russia really loomed. Not to miss them, Moscow needs to be patient and not make any sudden movements.
At the end of April this year in the half-empty hall of sessions of the lower house of the French Parliament over a proposal to lift the sanctions against Russia voted only 55 people. 44 opposed. A large part of the 577 national Assembly members “voted with their feet”: ignored the meeting. The balance of power in the Senate was quite different: of the 350 members of the upper chamber 316 people supported the idea of gradual normalization of relations with Moscow and only 16 felt that “ to tolerate evil Putin” is not worth it.
In the upper house of the French Parliament respect us more, than at the bottom? It certainly wasn’t like that. The April resolution was the initiative of a small group of deputies. It was written without any politeness towards Ukraine and “European solidarity in the face of aggressive actions of Putin” and therefore obviously was a no-go. But the decision of the Senate can, from my point of view, be regarded as the consolidated position of the French political elite. Document very diplomatic, discreet and contains the appropriate number of “ritual obeisance” against the current “sacred cows” of European diplomacy.
What gave rise to this document? I think, first and foremost, fatigue. Fatigue from the war of sanctions between the West and Russia – a war that not only robbed our “creative class” of ham, but has led to real economic difficulties for many European countries. For example, the French farmer class, which was seriously hit our counter-sanctions are not the meek of the Russian peasantry, which can only curse the power of the mouth of a farmer Vasiliy Melnichenko. French farmers traditionally inclined to more direct forms of struggle for their rights,” including blocking roads and even violence against government representatives.
In many European countries, including France, very tired of the behavior of Ukraine. Kiev politicians somehow decided that they will forever be manipulated by the European Union. In Kiev have long openly say: we ourselves are the Minsk agreement will not perform, it is not favorable to us. But sanctions against Russia for failure to comply with the Minsk agreement should only become tougher! On the background of moderate stressed Moscow’s position in the Donbass such behaviour of Kiev is perceived in some European capitals as defiant. The resolution of the French Senate is a reflection of this discontent.
All this “good news” for Moscow. Now for the “bad news” that are also present in significant quantities. Here is one of them: arrogant behavior annoys Kiev in the European Union not all. I recently during a Frank conversation had the opportunity to ask prominent Baltic policy real causes sharply negative attitude of his country toward Moscow. The answer amazed me: despite a quarter-century of independence, despite membership in EU and NATO, many prominent citizens of this state seriously admit that one day their country will become a “new Crimea”.
Such irrational fear far exceeds all rational arguments and makes glad to accept even serious economic losses. In the EU there is a group of countries that will fight for the preservation of sanctions against Moscow to the last drop of blood. There is this group of European countries and a powerful external ally – America. USA don’t feel any particular discomfort from the sanctions war with Russia. The current state of “limbo of the conflict,” the EU and Russia over Ukraine America more than satisfied.
Whose scales are weighted down when a certain number of months the EU will again decide on the extension of sanctions? I believe that to do divination on this subject – lesson besperspektivno. But what “lesson” I think it is promising: to continue the current balanced policy of Russia in respect of Donbass and Ukraine. Moscow should clearly fulfill its commitments under the Minsk agreements. Moscow needs to develop new initiatives to unblock the situation in the conflict zone. Moscow needs to demonstrate rationality and play on the contrast with the emotional, aggressive and hysterical behaviour of their “partners”.
If we succeed, that time will work for us. Any deterioration of the situation in the Donbass is not in Russia’s interests. In the interests of Russia – peace in the region. We need to pull out the cards from the hands of supporters of the extension of the sanctions. We need to do the impossible, consesus on this issue within the EU. If we all succeed, then a sanctions war with the European Union really will begin to subside.
Of course, from Russia in this question not all depends. There are many factors that are beyond our control. How, for example, is the result of an early referendum on the withdrawal of such prominent anti-Russian player as the UK from the European Union? How much power a tuned sharply anti-Russian Poland will be able to quarrel with other members of the EU? How the same “manage” such a “friend” of our country as the leader of Turkey’s Erdogan? Who will win the US presidential election in November – fanatical antimotility Hillary Clinton or not very clear until Donald trump?
The outcome of each of these events can move the scales either in our or not in our favor. But we do not need to rasschityvat on luck. In the war against the European sanctions, we continue to rely only on themselves.
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