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Monday, September 18, 2017

Inflation in Russia is no more, but she’ll come back soon

Even in crisis the Rosstat continues to spoil us with positive news. So, according to his statistics, from 31 may to 6 June, the consumer price index in our country has not grown by a single percentage point. Since the beginning of January the price growth as a whole stood at 2.9%. This is much lower than last year, when inflation was 12.9%. However, to believe that price fixing will become a trend sooner. This is a temporary stop. The decline in the cost of the food basket caused by the strengthening of the Russian currency. Since March the dollar has fallen from 75 to 64 rubles. But in the fall when you grow up of consumer spending, inflation will rise. At the end of the year it can be up to 10%.

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Of course, weekly stats — not an indicator. But, compared to last year, this is a bit of a breakthrough. What has fallen in our country during the first week of summer, that at least has not been showed not positive but also not negative.

For example, the prices of vegetables and fruits decreased by 1%. But this in on average. So, fresh cucumbers and tomatoes you can buy now cheaper by 9.6% and 5.1%, respectively, cabbage — by 6.2%.

Also 3% of eggs became cheaper on 0,2-0,5% — pork, salt, flour, rice and millet.

Along with this, the potato has risen in price on 6%, onion — by 2.4%, carrots — on 1,8%. It is worth noting that the price of buckwheat increased by 1.5%, sugar — by 0.5%, caramel, tea, pasta — by 0.3%.

Previous four week consumer prices in Russia grew 0.1% in the week. In may inflation amounted to 0.4%, in annual terms at the end of the last month of spring inflation gained 7.3 percent. In April it was recorded at 0.4% in March and 0.5% in February and 0.6% in January — 1%.

Undoubtedly, the progress clearly. However, to enjoy there is no reason. According to the scenario of economic development, inflation by the end of this year will be 6.5%. CB believes that it can grow up to 7%. And this is we can expect. According to the same Rosstat, gasoline and diesel fuel, which directly affects the value of the goods at the Russian stations during the first week of June rose by 0.1%. Adding the pace in price every seven days fuel can seriously hit the wallets of each the average consumer, even if he does not have personal vehicles.

“Hope that the current price-fixing will become a trend, makes no sense. This is a temporary stop, the decline in the cost of the food basket of ordinary Russians was caused by strengthening of the Russian currency. The dollar since early March has dropped in price from 75 to 64 rubles. However, in the fall, when rise significantly consumer spending, inflation will rise. For the year it threatens to be up to 10%. So, in the summer we can still walk, but closer to winter have to save,” — said Professor at the Higher school of Economics Igor Nikolaev.

Rising prices and a falling ruble. Chronicle of events

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