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Friday, October 28, 2016

The economy went to the bottom: as it to understand

Some believe that the crisis bottom was reached last year and the economy POPs up already. And the falling standard of living — only a temporary phenomenon: the so-called delayed effect. Rosstat fixes the inflation rate YTD 2.9%. The Ministry of economic development believes that in August it is going to be zero. Sociologists have noticed that the number of negative assessments of the situation in the country became less. How to understand this? We do go to the surface? Or continue to suffocate in a submarine, from which there is no escape?

photo: Gennady Cherkasov

Let us dwell on analysis of the polls: 71% of the respondents answered that everything is fine, good and even excellent, 24% is all bad and awful. Recall that in April 2011, the positive mood was experienced only 15% of Russians.

From the beginning of 2016 the citizens a little added optimism about the future of the country. However, nearly half of respondents (48%) still believe that tough times still ahead, 23% are experiencing them currently, and only 19% say that all the bad things in the past. But in June 2014, when the last crisis broke out, the figure was as much as 42%.

Project Manager management and monitoring of electoral surveys VTSIOM Mikhail Mamonov explains the results obtained by a number of reasons. There is a “routinization of crisis of perception”, that is, the emotional evaluation of negative phenomena in the economy weakens. The population has adapted to the economic hardship, that produces positive results. Seasonal factors also contributed. Usually the spring social wellbeing of the population improves.

So, it looks like we don’t emerge, and are still at the bottom. Only with time have adapted to the crisis environment, reconciled with slimming wallets and he clenched his teeth and moved on. What can you do?

Has long impoverished the Russians have switched to buying on promotions. According to research by the polling company Nielsen, the share of such sales in the first quarter of 2016 reached 46%, which is 9% higher than the same period last year.

Highest rates in non-food sector. So, the shares are sold 75% of air conditioners for the linen, 67% washing powders, 63% of the funds for washing dishes, 58% of shampoos and 52% of toothpaste.

Catch up with related products and products. The increase in coffee prices reached the level of price increase toothpaste is 52%. About 50% showed juices, 43% — chocolate, 39 per cent sodas, 29% beer and 23% — “milk”.

According to the expert in marketing of Marina Lapenkova, Russia at preservation of current dynamics in three-four years can take the first place in Europe for buying all kinds of goods in the framework of promotion actions.

It seems to be the consumer well, but the process is the reverse side. When reaching a 70% level of such sales for the manufacturer and the retailer there comes a “point of no return”. Buyers generally refuse to buy products without discounts. So, soon all trade all collapses?

The purchasing behavior is understandable. What sense to overpay, because real incomes are falling, and all around just more expensive, including discounts. Take, for example, liquid detergent for washing clothes (1 l). In late March, the base price was 235 rubles (discounted — 139), and in may it went up to 255, and the discount, respectively, to 178 rubles. That is, according to the promotion goods to rise to 39 rubles (or 28%). Saving is no hint.

And this is for each item “capucci”. According to estimates, “MK”, rise in price on average from the beginning of the year amounted to 20-25%. But Rosstat has turned out another figure — only 4.6%. And yet, maybe they counted the cost of the minimum set, including tooth powder, soap and single-layer toilet paper the color gray? Then everything converges.

Financial crisis. Chronicle of events

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