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Thursday, December 8, 2016

Merkel is losing credibility and support


The European refugee crisis started to affect the position of the, as it seemed more recently, the sustainable policy of Europe – Angela Merkel. A rating of Merkel and her party’s involvement in the ruling coalition problem, the neighbors do not want to pay for the German policy of taking migrants – refugees provoke exacerbation of existing contradictions.

More recently, the main intrigue of German domestic policy was the question of whether to go in 2017 Angela Merkel in the elections to the Bundestag and whether there will be after them Chancellor for a fourth term – and the chances of that Frau kantslerin was assessed as high. But the refugee crisis for several months worsened the attitude towards the EU in General, and Merkel personally. And recently, the press leaked rumors that the entourage of the Chancellor are already discussing not win in 2017, and the possibility that Merkel might resign before the elections.

“The German political elite is beginning to be disappointed in Angela Merkel

The fact that the position of Angela Merkel was shaken, best seen not in terms of ratings and articles in the press, and at the measures being taken by the German authorities. And she starts to fuss – which in principle is not peculiar to any German authorities – that is, nervous. For example, this Sunday in Germany was to enter into force the new immigration law, which was hurriedly passed by the Bundestag in order to facilitate the solution of the refugee problem, in the inability to cope with which accused the authorities as the European Union and Germany itself. But suddenly the law came into force a week earlier – which in itself is evidence of an emergency not only with refugees but also with politicians.

The German government is not so much in a hurry because you need to do something with the hundreds of thousands of migrants, but wanting to reassure the public voicing increasing dissatisfaction with the situation. The new law cannot be called premigration – for example, he denies the Albanians the possibility to claim political asylum and facilitates the deportation of those who have not received refugee status. And Berlin wants to demonstrate that it works, solves the problem, that soon everything will change for the better. Will he be able to reverse the clearly defined trend of frustration in Merkel?

And disappointed voters – “mommy is mad”, say some of its former supporters and opponents and even publicly called the Chancellor “a traitor of the people” and “a whore for refugees” – but, more importantly, allies and coalition partners, that is the very German elites. Because together with the popularity of Merkel and falling ratings, the CDU-CSU and the SPD – they reached a three-year low.

The growing popularity of the eurosceptic “Alternative for Germany”, sustainable support for the opposition green and left again takes to the streets people of PEDIGO anti-immigrant – and everyone understands that in the remaining time the attitude of the ruling parties will only worsen, and disagreements within the ruling “great coalition – grow.

Merkel has missed – if you decided to accept all refugees, she called the fire yourself, hoping that her high ranking and the promotion of tolerance, responsiveness to people’s misfortune and “economic benefit from migrants” will overcome a negative reaction of a large part of German society. But now the Germans are asking different questions. Including such simple – “Who all is going to pay?”. The Chancellor said that this year will cover everything from the budget surplus, but economists are asked about the following years and call numbers from 15 to 45 billion euros.

After all, and already arrived refugees need to build and socialize, and the new will arrive. The regional authorities are dissatisfied – we have no ground, they say, enough to accept migrants. About 200 mayors from North Rhine – Westphalia, Merkel sent a letter asking to limit the flow of migrants, but the most unpleasant for the Chancellor is that outrage is growing among the authorities of Bavaria. It is not just the largest German land, but also the most important stronghold of the coalition of Merkel – it is ruled by the Christian social Union, traditional partner of the Christian democratic Union.

The leader of the CSU, the Bavarian Prime Minister Horst Seehofer said that no longer wants to be responsible for the situation of refugees, demanding that Merkel to deal with Austria, so she didn’t miss migrants. “If the policy does not set borders for migration, the people he will put the boundaries for policy,” said Seehofer. According to the German press, it is not excluded that the leader of the CSU will give an ultimatum and threaten the Chancellor to withdraw from the government, three Ministers from his party.

And criticism is growing within the CDU – one of the key allies Merkel, Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble said that the mood within the party is very pessimistic. And, according to Spiegel, Schaeuble better than anyone, understands the principles of the coalition – and if he sounded the alarm, the situation is really critical.

It should be understood that the refugee problem only exacerbates existing contradictions within the ruling coalition – which in addition to the CDU-CSU and includes the social Democrats. They have the main objections to Merkel’s concern is not the refugees, and the support of the American policy of sanctions against Russia – foreign Minister Steinmeier, the SPD leader and Vice Chancellor Sigmar Gabriel advocated the restoration of normal relations between the two countries. It is clear that they can’t be honest in public statements and to say that Atlantic solidarity in the policy of pressure on Russia imposed on Berlin by the Americans, and not a free choice of the German Cabinet.

But what, for example, said last Wednesday in Moscow, Putin Gabriel, obviously beyond the scope of the German restraint. Vice-Chancellor, which is concurrently the Minister of economy and energy, discussed at the meeting with Putin above all economic cooperation, including in the field of energy (for example, the development of the “North stream”), but said to them, doubtless, refers to German policies in General.

Vice-Chancellor of Germany and leader of one of the two ruling parties spoke several times about the desire to limit political interference” in Russian-German projects – a clear reference to the European Union and the Atlanticist – and directly talked about the fact that “there are parties both in Europe and in the United States, which is beneficial to the continuation and not the bridging of the Ukrainian conflict. That is, the German elite has openly say that personally they are only for the normalization of relations – but that’s in the way they understand correctly. In this situation Merkel, remaining for US the most important European partner, too, is extreme.

Unhappy with it because of the refugees, her claim because of the support of the American plans for the accelerated advancement of the Transatlantic partnership, it supported sanctions against Russia – all this is not like different units, the German ruling class, from the Catholics of the CSU to the social Democrats. Besides a strong pressure on Merkel Europeans during the Greek debt crisis and the refugee crisis has caused the growth of discontent on the part of European countries to address as Chancellor, and Germany.

Of course, Berlin is not going to abandon the role of the European powerhouse – but only to drive it wants to and not at the command of the Anglo-Saxons. Merkel too strongly associated with the Atlantic solidarity, too much framed in the history of refugees, both within Germany and in the EU, too configures all Europeans against Berlin – and the combination of these two factors can lead to the fact that the German establishment decides to send Frau to retire. To preserve German leadership in Europe – and be a bit more free from the suffocating stranglehold of the Atlanticists.

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