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Friday, October 28, 2016

Why the President needs a “bad” Prime

Remember the Soviet joke about the plumber who came to the apartment to fix a leaking battery? “Yes, there is the whole system is rotten, the whole system must be changed!” — he concludes. The anecdote is relevant today, because the system seems to have had it. But the people in my head a clear split: he kind of understands what’s going on in the country, but at the same time preserves the credibility of the government, which led us to this result.

On the one hand, we see the President with a huge rating. On the other — is rapidly declining economy, deteriorating the social sphere and, as a consequence, a high degree of public dissatisfaction with the government. How is it that in crumbling the Foundation of the head of state manages to maintain popularity?

The logic of this social attitude, in my opinion, is well expressed by the taxi driver, who recently had a chance to go: “Putin snapped — the West, America, Syria, Donbass. And the economy must deal with Medvedev — instead of the iPhone sit.” And immediately was given a portion of bad news: work has become less, prices are rising, where the roll is unclear.

The taxi driver actually reproduced the classic propaganda formula, which he hears every day on TV: the root of the troubles in addition to America — in a bad officials and the liberals. The government is clearly derelict, and the President is very busy foreign policy and raising Russia from its knees. He is a kind of sacred patron of the country, her guardian angel, and to him the shortcomings of officials not stick.

Of course, if you think about it sensibly, then there should be cognitive dissonance: the President has a huge amount of authority, it appoints the government, can, when they want, without consulting anyone else, to dismiss any Minister, including the Prime Minister. Their decrees, he shall be entitled to initiate any reforms. And the state Duma in his power, because it is a majority of United Russia. Why would Putin not to appoint a good team, not to dismiss corrupt officials and not to announce a new course of the country? After all, as he raises her from her knees, if the economy collapses? If he is weak and unable to do so, why support him then? If he doesn’t want — again, this is bad. But the people, poorly versed in the political institutions and not seeing before my eyes some decent alternatives ready to believe that “Putin hard,” “he fights”, “hinder him”.

The massive pumping of the minds in this direction allows the authorities to hold the system and nothing in it fundamentally does not change, keeping the current best elite inertial scenario. And it is beneficial to her because, if the government decided to economic reforms, it inevitably would be hit by its material interests, was forced to sacrifice a part of comfort and windfall.

However, while the costs of the crisis AUCA primarily to the masses, need someone to do the extreme, a virtual boy for beating. Here on this role just assigned to the government (net of Shoigu and Lavrov) and abstract “liberal circles” that are supposedly providing behind-the-scenes influence on the officials.

Obviously, the President cannot officially support the current course, which resulted in a mass poverty of the population. To put the equality between this rate and the President would be if not suicide, then certainly a powerful blow to his popularity. But to change course Putin does not intend for the reason indicated above (the interests of the elite). It is for this reason that President on the eve of election campaigns deliberately “detachable” from the internal agenda and “hang” it on Medvedev and his government. Consistently Prime and is no longer the second person in the state, and expendable, a scapegoat.

It is not necessary to completely identify Medvedev and the “United Russia”. In propaganda they are not mixed, and this is no accident: it is not necessary that all the negativity to the officials and the head of the government passed on the party, which will win a majority in the Duma. Therefore, United Russia even criticizing the Ministers, representing that they and the Executive branch are two different things (in spite of the General Director and a majority in Parliament, allowing it to take any personnel and legislative decision).

This is a very important part of the show: Medvedev to be a “lightning rod” for Putin, but the United Russia, headed it must pass the Duma campaign. In this regard, the government will best regulate the volume of criticism of the Prime Minister, including from opposition parties. As for the attacks by the influential circles of power (type of traditional onf philippics against officials), they will be more of a correction value to bring the President from the blow of possible criticism for the situation in the country. But too belittle the government during the election period, the official propagandists will not be a negative move to “local officials”. In this case, the government gives carte Blanche for the expenditure of the budget populist, to mitigate the crisis, including through a temporary increase of dividends from large corporations (called a figure of 300-400 billion, which is quite enough for the summer).

Thus, in the state Duma elections, Medvedev will call the fire itself, but due to the “managed democracy” this fire will not go into the fire and not burn and the power elite. The President needs to remain intact, as its basic strategic game — it’s 2018 elections, the key for the elite.

The next act of political performance will be the Premiership to Medvedev after the election until 2018. Here he is also the whipping boy and are expendable political material, preparing the entrance of Putin’s new presidential campaign.

After the election the Prime Minister, having received a formal carte Blanche from voters, can become the initiator of unpopular measures (of course, if oil suddenly miraculously grow in value). It is inevitable for a crisis someone has to pay, and, apparently, this “someone” is still not elite. In any case, that Medvedev will make ends meet in ultradefinition the 2016 budget (a deficit of 14.7% of the expenditure part), and then to impose like robbing Peter to pay Paul, budgets and 2017 -2018.

Further, if the situation begins to develop according to the worst scenario and claims from the population reached a critical mass, Putin in presidential elections may send Medvedev to resign, giving him some cinecurry post. And again to your profit — in the eyes of the electorate the President is almost a national Savior. Removing thus the social tension it with an acceptable percent re-elect for another 6 years. The opposition will again be put to shame, and the Prime Minister may be well, like Kudrin. That successfully prosimulium a compromise between “liberals” and “conservatives” and at the same time will be perceived as a nod in the direction of the West, which we desperately need cheap money.

The alpha and omega of all mnogohodovki — saving system. So — the privileges and assets of the highest elite and its lifestyle, a peaceful transfer of wealth to children. You can exhale and again to enjoy the sunsets on the French Riviera and in Italy.

What will happen next — time will tell, and economic environment. If the reserves run out and oil prices do not rise, it will begin the intrigue surrounding the successor of Putin. Or find a new scapegoat, and so on to infinity. Generally as long as the current government simply thinks of.

There remains the last question. Why all this to Medvedev? Him-what a joy that he’s expendable? But here in the classics: do not live for pleasure, but for conscience. I think lying on the surface the answer would be and best — Medvedev Executive and faithful to his patron, he can not imagine himself outside the system and especially the Creator of the new system.

Recall in this regard another anecdote: Medvedev-the President wakes up in a sweat. The wife asks: “What happened?” “I dreamt that I was fired Putin…” says Medvedev. But 2011 demonstrated that to prepare the revolution and even serious reform of the current Prime Minister is not under the force is not its scale. It turns out that Medvedev’s political path — short runways, and next to them a series of indignities. However, and joy in his position too much — is it bad as many as six years to be Prime Minister in a rich country like Russia?

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